orthopa

A question to orthopa (really anyone willing to take a crack at it): If the vast majority of excess deaths would have occurred over the next coming months ("life expectance is months"), then why has there been no observed trend of "under-mortality" to the tune of 100k+ in the 6-7 months past the initial spike? Or to borrow Cigarbutt's wording of the same sentiment: Taking the NYC excess mortality data for example, even forgetting the cause (direct, indirect, marginal or even lockdown related) of deaths for analytic purposes (life expectancy lost because of whatever happened during the excess mortality period), if the life expectancy of all those who died was a few days, weeks or months, how is it mathematically or logically possible that excess mortality has not reversed in the negative direction now that reported Covid deaths have gone down to very low levels (close to zero) for months? Thats a good question and certainly up for debate. My one thought would be to compare 2021 excess deaths to 2020. "wait 2 more weeks" Granted that does not directly compare to the months to live notion (maybe that had 11 months to live and not 3?) but would give some time to allow additional people to near similar health states as the population ages. Looking at the CDC excess death data by age it looks like the 45-64 age group has crossed below with both 65-74 and 75-84 groups trending down excess death levels of 2015-2019. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I dont think anyone can argue with the fact there has been excess deaths. There certainly is room for argument as to whether or not the measures that continue to be in place and the money/time/energy being spent as a result are necessary for this disease as more information become available over time. Mainly from my point of view those dying and their condition up to the time of death.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it. Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot. Fortunately, he is rich and likely got the best care available. Lazy answer. He apparently got remdesivir which doesn't work anyway right? and was under "observation" which means they didnt do shit. If this is the treatment and outcome for a morbidly obese asthmatic and expected outcome for all of those in his condition and healthier we have sorely swung things the wrong way here. Chris Christie effectively had a cold and got better. Why is that so hard to accept for people?

India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan. Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring. It is fair to say that health data reporting in India is not as reliable as in some other countries but their age distribution is wildly different (much younger profile). Since age is the major risk factor and since age risk rises exponentially, one can expect that their overall mortality rates will be overall much lower. -For the it was there all along and there was nothing to do about it aspect There is solid and robust evidence concurrent to the initial spread and data revealed over time that the thesis does not make sense. -concurrent work https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2008646 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249414291297464321.html -data over time The thesis does not make sense from a mathematical, epidemiological and logical point of view. @orthopa and Gregmal You realize that you are basically arguing that the earth is flat? Opinion: This thesis cannot be disproved but it can be rejected with a high degree of confidence. ::) The piece in the NEJM mentioned above is interesting because it helps to explain the evolution in Washington State vs what happened elsewhere (look at deaths per million, excess mortality etc and compare to potential outcomes considered prospectively. Suggesting (and maintaining the opinion that) nothing could be done sounds awfully fatalistic and is not supported by evidence. In what way? That the vast majority of of those that died were very sick and the most vulnerable? Whats the face of the dead in America? A 76 year old ill patient with 2.6 comorbidities who's life expectancy is months or the 25 year old that just drops dead. Trump, all in the white house, Chris Christie etc are giving you a good look at the recovery prospects of 99% and greater of those who get this disease. I think the average moron walking around the grocery store with gloves on, glasses, and a mask wouldn't think for 2 seconds that Chris Christie would survive. He is fat and has asthma. He is a goner. Thats what America thinks, thats why we are stopping the spread right? So everyone like Chris Christie doesnt die!!!

Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?). I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it. Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot.

India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan. Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/ There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring.

Just PSPA around Thanksgiving. This would be before the SCOTUS arguments too which I think makes the most sense of anything timing wise. Apparently there is an Asset backed alert note that came out that UST and FHFA are considering a plan to ram through an effort to end GSE conservatorship if Biden wins. This was the same subscription that said preferred investors were very happy after meeting calabria back in spring/early summer of 2019. I do not have a copy of it. This would be common knowledge if anyone had been reading this board. ;D

Remember when people were getting arrested for walking alone on the beach? We have come so far as a society.

Hmm. It's almost like the "immunity" in herd immunity means something... Exactly. Which is why the herd immunity term in the general lexicon has become a complete misnomer. This virus will be around long after a vaccine is widely available but at some point (and a lot sooner than many think), it will no longer be an epidemic. Instead, it will become endemic in the population just like all the other respiratory viruses that circulate regularly. This is how previous pandemics ended - viral infections were never eliminated. Exactly Frank. Infact as per CDC, the emergency visits for Covid like symptoms (CLI) to hospital are already at about February level (my earlier post). The hospitalizations are about at middle of March. Yes we can count Covid positives. But ultimately its the hospitalizations that matter. I think this is certainly where things have gotten out of hand. We used to worry about the hospitals being over run and mass deaths as a result. Now have per KCLarkins post a state of emergency, gathering limits, etc with daily deaths less then 20 day in the state of Georgia. That isn't rational on any measure.

Doubt Cuomo will allow a full second wave. But increasing positivity and Rt > 1 despite heavy restrictions are clear indicators that herd immunity threshold hasn’t been reached. Edit to add: schools and restaurants haven’t even been open a full incubation period, so too early to detect a second wave. There's a big misconception about what the herd immunity threshold even is. For many, it seems to mean the point at which 1) the virus disappears or 2) that the virus no longer spreads. But that's not possible given the thousands of different respiratory viruses that circulate normally. Rather, the herd immunity threshold is better described as the point in which the virus crosses over from epidemic to endemic. Under that definition, HIT being reached and Rt>1 is not incompatible. The virus will still be around long after the epidemic has ended. So it's because of Cuomo's excellent leadership that a second wave will be avoided? Florida's rt has been estimated as below 1 since late June, even below that of NY's...by your thinking, was it DeSantis's doing as well? I don't know why some people want it to be bad or get worse. So if NYC is not reaching or has reached the point of "herd immunity" what explains the positivity rate in the graphic you posted? Mask wearing? Social distancing? I live in NY. Believe me, everyone isn't wearing masks all the time or social distancing all the time and many, many restaurants are packed and busy on a nightly basis where you don't have to wear a mask if you eating. Sure NY is better then TX and FL at social measures but looking at frank87's graphic there is a larger force at play, one that doesn't slip up like humans do.

Couple things about antibodies. The antibody testing needs to be delineated between IgM and IgG to get a sense of timing and prevalence. (my assumption is that is what was being tested as that's what was commonly being tested across the country) Both become detectable and and wane at different time periods. Over time "months" nearly all who were infected will have their antibodies wane down to not detectible. Many getting tested in August could have "had antibodies" in March, April, May etc but show up negative in August. FWIW earlier readings have the likelihood as being most accurate as the start date for large scale exposure and initial community spread (and thus catching the start of the antibody curve if you will) is much closer to March then now. I haven't looked through the data being discussed but if a representative population was ~62% positive in early March that is a much more accurate level then what you would get now IMO. Consider that a floor, if again representative. Also clearly explains NYC infection curve (very low level of cases for months and months) AND their over representative death count and spike in spring. Losing antibodies as delineated above is not uncommon and does not immediately point to reinfection or possibility. Look at worldwide re infection examples. Handful out of millions of cases. T cell immunity is what you guys are missing here. All the info you guys are looking for in NYC is in T cell immunity. The problem is there is no way do detect/test for such at this time. I attached a graph giving a rough idea of what I am trying to convey. As it says chart for illustrative purposes only.

Good point, this may have already been laid out by yourself but wouldn't Calabria be motivated to settle this too as the ruling by SCOTUS would put his position in jeopardy sooner then if separate litigation was taken up? If so nearly all involved have motivation to settle. Get it over with and raise the capital everyone says you need.

I think there a couple things to think about with this. 1. When is capital rule done? If pre election sometime after capital plans should be requested which makes it more likely done before end of year. How can capital plans be drawn up with the PSPA in place still? (I get that its a given that the Srs are dealt with in some fashion but once the capital rule is done submission of capital plans should come with or around cancelling of the SRs or the plans will include such.)ACG is saying capital rule is done before end of October which would be great but a part of me asks why Calabria would do that when 4 days later with a Trump win his timeline to work is extended greatly. 2. One would think settling before SCOTUS given the possible outcome AND goal to recap companies would make the most sense in the case of a unknown election outcome. Either way if Trump wins settling before hand takes risk off of the table and Trump does not have to worry about re election risk with helping out the hedge funds. If Biden wins then Mnuchin/Trump have no more political risk because they are lame duck and can help whoever they want on the way out. Mnuchin should just settle it before, what political risk is there after the election? 3. Settling with investors and ending the NWS can happen at the same time with Capital Restoration plan. Any $$$ given back or not, exercise of warrants, etc, etc will be in capital plan and terms would be agreeable to both sides to end lawsuits. See 1. above again. I think these have to happen at the same time. 4. FWIW the consent decree could be drawn up in days if its not already. That could happen the week of the inauguration if needed.

Based on the prepared statements of Calabria and FSOCs recomendations it doesnt appear the proposal capital levels are going to budge much if at all. Not a whole lot of tea reading other then Calabria saying the rule will be finalized in the coming months. https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Prepared-Remarks-of-Dr-Mark-A-Calabria-Director-of-FHFA-at-FSOC-Principals-Meeting-9-25-2020.aspx https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/261/Financial-Stability-Oversight-Councils-Statement-on-Secondary-Mortgage-Market-Activities.pdf

From the IMF rag apparently FSOC voted unanmously to support FHFAs reproposed capital framework. How can FSOC approve it if it isnt finalized (or is it and we are just in a waiting game as assumed). Apparently FSOC thinks the capital rules are not strict enough. Not sure how much of a blessing this was but glad there was no opposition.

China is a super rich country too. They have had what 10 people die of covid in total?

Our resident nihilist awakens. I'll send a postcard to my brother-in-law in Vietnam to share the bad news. He keeps saying they don't have Covid there. When you start the go fund me for the canadian victims memorial wall let me know. Post the link if you started it already.

Open question for the floor. Why isnt there a 100% chance the PSPA isnt done by inauguration day? If Trump is out, Mnuchin is out and Im not so sure I want a Biden appointed Treasury Secretary or underling negotiating with Calabria. Secondly if Trump loses what do either Calabria as an independent regular or lame duck Mnuchin have to lose negotiating the PSPA in the weeks after the election. I cant think of a more common sense assumption regarding the PSPA if Trump loses and why that chance isnt 100%. Unless they want to dump the chance of a SC loss on a new administration.

The U.S. has 200,000 dead. Canada has 9,200. Factor in the difference of population and the US death rate is over double that of Canada - 2.6 times to be exact. The reason Canada’s Covid rate is now starting to increase is probably no great surprise. It is likely due to the change in weather as Canada heads into what Canadians call “The Flu Season”. The Fall cold and wet season is just starting to settle in and will likely get a lot worse before it gets better. The question may now be, will the Northern States see the same type of increase in Covid cases? Is Canada’s increasing rate a precursor of what is coming as we transition from summer into fall and winter? One might also surmise that a certain amount of the increase may well be also due to trans-border crossings. While the border is closed to tourism, there are still thousands (tens of thousands) truckers and other essential workers crossing the border every day. I believe that half the U.S. states are still seeing cases trending up. You can't share a 3,000 mile border with a country that has a widespread disease and not expect it to spread over that border. Lock-downs, contact tracing and travel restrictions can work very, very well, but it is simply not practical in many locations. Who cares about the death rate. Isnt the new thing the "lifelong complications" that maybe as a consequence of covid? You may have a bunch of canadians that escaped death but are SOB when they go upstairs or whatever. Never mind the fact they are 400lbs and have avoid stairs their whole life. A viral disease so severe that nearly half of the people who have it have no idea they have it and the ones that do have problems and die were mostly ticking time bombs.

What is truly fascinating is that Cigarbutt went to the trouble of posting the graphic portraying the 7-day rolling new cases per million population, which shows pretty clearly that the US, the Netherlands, Spain and France are all currently in the same boat when it comes to new covid cases. Denmark, Canada and the UK are rapidly heading towards that boat. The bizarre response from some posters to the trends that we've seen over the past month or six weeks is to double-down on the Trump criticism. It's all fine and well to criticize Trump's engagement on this pandemic, although I tend to believe that the importance of the federal government's role is a bit overstated. However, how does one attribute this entirety of this situation to Trump, when half of Europe is in the same damned boat right now, and the rest of us look like we'll soon join them? It should be pretty obvious by now that the posters in this thread who suggested in March that the lock-down measures undertaken by a great many countries could only temporarily hold down the spread of covid. In most countries, the lock-down measures were relaxed in May/June and look where they are at today. They are exactly back to where they started in March. The difference now is that I suspect that very few of those countries will find the popular support among the population to implement another aggressive lock-down. In short, my guess is that those countries will largely come around to the US approach of having a relatively high tolerance to the spread of the virus. Or, we could just continue to vilify one guy. SJ There should be no reason to lock down again. Looking at what the UK is doing with their restrictions relative to the deaths per day they are experiencing is absurd. The death rate from this virus has decreased substantially. In the end the virus always wins. There is no magic and there was nothing anyone could have done to prevent this in any country in any part of the world. The asymptomatic population decimates any chance to contain/track the virus and if the death rate continues to fall as it has it nears a point of a complete waste of time to test/treat it any different then known viral infections.

https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHFA_StrategicPlan_9222020.pdf Not a lot of meat for shareholders but pretty clear cut FHFA is going to end the conservatorship. Attention is paid to the fact 2021 is the start of the framework for ending the conservatorship. Unlikely a consent decree is enacted before the end of 2020 but even so still time before inauguration and if/when Calabria forced to leave.

Excellent. These points will go largely undiscussed, in the media, public, and ofcourse this board. Like a fart in the wind.

Why do you expect partisan posts? Maybe there are two coronavirus threads I have been reading the wrong one. We heard all summer about the lack of leadership in the US compared to Canada, Europe, NZ etc etc. That posting seems to have changed. Maybe that was his/her point Canada is really trending the wrong way heading into fall/winter. What a lack of leadership up there. Testing and tracing must be going well. Maybe we should be testing more knowing 45ish% of people have no symptoms and people can test positive for weeks after not being contangious. That sounds like it will be real effective. Worth a try no?

Thanks cherzeca. The logic would then follow that if RBG was a vote against Ps then any trump nominee should be a vote for. Senate would essentially be voting in someone who would on paper go against the own administration/Treasury/Mnuchin in this case. Double the reason to try to move to a settlement. Maybe/hopefully this was the plan anway and none of this matters although its quite ironic.