orthopa

Agreed, although I wish Mnuchin would have played it a bit closer to his chest. If he gets approved we are in excellent shape. I guess it was easy in hindsight now to see that coming now knowing what Paulson and Berkowitz hold. Still a relief no matter what. ;D Anyone think those of us that hold some common should convert to only preferred?

My other thought was people front running a court decision today.

I could care less about his tax returns. If I could have lowered my income to point of not paying taxes I would have every year I have filed. I take every available deduction there is for me. Does that mean I should show everyone my tax returns? Makes no sense. I think its great he is holding the media accountable. The majority of the media is liberal so this should be expected. Why shouldn't they be called out? How about a question for those who are against Trump and liked the idea of the women's march. Where were all the women marching on the national mall when Bill was railing interns and accused or rape. I dont know whats worse bragging about womanizing or actually doing it. Apparently all of those marching yesterday thought the former.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/298/text

FWIW

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/20/john-paulson-increased-long-exposure-to-stocks-after-trumps-win.html

I would believe that as much as his dancing around he FnF questions as he did.

If you guys are able to go back and watch paulsons fiance in the background when this involvement in paulsons funds and his intentions with FnF. Very telling IMO. She looked more uncomfortable then with any other line of questioning. Almost like she knows something is up. I obviously maybe very biased and reading into nothing but worth a look if not watched.

Anyone aware of a live feed of the hearing?

FWIW from a short term perspective do you guys think a Mnunchin appointment/approval is baked in at these prices? Some preferred's are still trading at ~25% of par. Still a lot of upside in a scenario where they are redeemed at par. Also on more of a hokey note the Bollinger Bands on the chart are very tight implying a big move either up or down very soon. Not a coincidence with what is happening this week IMO.

From above article. "The biggest factor in Cooper’s favor: his close friendship with incoming attorney general Jeff Sessions, his fellow Alabaman, University of Alabama law school graduate, and Reagan-era DOJ lawyer. Cooper played a key role in prepping Sessions for his hearings. After Sessions’s hearings concluded so successfully, Cooper’s stock in Trumpworld went way up — to the point where he was basically redoing the Trump DOJ org chart (and writing himself in as SG)." The stars seem to continually align.

Again, Niave viewpoint here but how can Berkowitz, Paulson etc sue on the "rule of law", the fact that the preferred stock was a contract and shareholder property destruction when the premise they are suing on applies to all that hold the same securities they do? It would be ironic if "the rule of law" applied only to litigants when others hold identical property.

With James Freeman being a senior editor not hard to figure out WSJ's slanted stance of FnF the last couple of years.

But the treasury can make a 4th amendment without approval from congress and thus before 1/1/18 correct? I thought congress approval was only needed to get FnF out of conservatorship.

Does anyone have a feel or know how much Mnunchin can do without congress? Corkers bill prevents FnF from leaving conservatorship before the end of 2017 without congress approval right? Outside of that Mnunchin can unilaterally stop sweep correct? Can he on his own cancel the warrants or change the conversion rate/price? Thanks

This is how I connect the dots about what Trump will do. Using what seems to be plain common sense based on what happened before, during and after the election. 1. Trump (possibly via Mnunchin) owes Paulson after his support, donor money etc. 2. Trump has shown extremely loyalty to those who have supported him via positions in the administration etc. 3. Paulson isn't going to have a position in the administration so his reciprocation will come in another manner. 4. Paulson, Berkowitz, Ichan, all have some sort of a tie to Fannie/Freddy and Trump/Mnuchin and now Icahn is an "adviser" 5. Mnuchin said he wants FnF out of government control, fast, and will make it a top 10 priority. He is either blatantly lying or just told us he is going to do exactly what we want him to do. I seems to simple and its what we want....that;s what makes us uneasy. Who is Trump going to lean towards/try to please/help out etc? His "hedge fund" buddies or some hard nosed politicians who have no better option then what Paulson/Berkowitz may put in Mnunchins ear. Its a very simpleton approach to connecting the dots....but can be asked in a simple question. Does Trump let Paulson/Berkowitz lose -/+ 1Billion each or help them in a beneficial way? I honestly think a political scenario where Trump is swayed away is much less likely. Has Trump shit on his supporters? I believe any resolution helps Paulson the most(and indirectly Berkowitz through preferred exposure), not so sure where Ackman will stand at the end with all of the common. I cant use common sense to figure that out. If Im naive and way out in left field with my assessment above then the legal case maybe my only hope.

If Corker/Crapo and the anti-GSE Senators vote YES to confirm Mnuchin, then I may go 100% long (assuming the shares don't jump too much), because that would be a clear indicator that they're giving this one up, not that it's their choice to begin with. But at that point, the only entities that can stop us are the Courts - assuming they throw the cases out before Mnuchin can inform the judges that he wants to settle, and Mel Watt (lol). Agree, I would increase my exposure significantly also, likely mostly in preferred.

Bitcoin down 20% this Am. :o :o :o

From what I gather the momentum behind bitcoin recently has been govt cracking down on paper money such as China and India. My thought is that long term the most likely beneficiary of this is plastic IE, AXP, V and MA. Visa is currently pushing hard into India with the recent ban on low denomination bills.

Sharper I know a while back you noted a risk to Visa was block chain but it appears as if Visa has started to integrate blockchain technology into its network. Do you feel its still a threat?

Looks like the democrats are going to try hard to paint Mnunchin with shit. https://theintercept.com/2017/01/03/treasury-nominee-steve-mnuchins-bank-accused-of-widespread-misconduct-in-leaked-memo/

Mnunchin declines to write back to Brown. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/treasury-nominee-mnuchin-declines-to-answer-senator-s-questions-ixhzyate

Anyone have "that" or a link to the list of fannie/freddie issues and where they trade at percentage of par? I thought I have posted it at some point but cant seem to find it now that topic is over 500 pages. Thanks in advance.

My common/preferred FNMA is not marginable. Tradeking is my broker. Fannie holding currently ~9% of portfolio. Why not more? I guess outside of cash coming in, which I have used over time notably after Sweeney released a large tranche of docs this past summer not sure I want to sell other appreciated holdings which are good cash flowing yada, yada businesses. With just recent dip of common I added some. If common/preferred ultimately go to 2-10x currently value we all will do quite fine. I guess I think back to Buffett's comment that its foolish to risk a lot of what you have to get more of what you don't need. As good as things look this is still not a guarentee but if I lose ~9 of my portfolio I can still get up the next day and live to invest again.

You bet it will. Those guys want their money as fast as we do. ;D ;D ;D