orthopa

Not sure if these have been linked... New documents https://fanniefreddiesecrets.org/resources/ This one makes it pretty clear the intention is to wind down the GSE's, they say as much. Not exactly what a conservator should be doing no? http://fanniefreddiesecrets.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PSPA-Modification-Key-Points-to-Make-7-20-12.pdf

Complete speculation on my part but again only reinforcing what mnuchin has told us; Fannie and Freddie need to get out of goverment control, priority and relatively fast. According to Cohn he has been working hard on a solution Again unless the man is lying sooner then later something should happen.

A couple of your not par scenarios do fit with Mnunchins tone to get fannie and freddie out of govt control and priority to get things done quickly. Would also argue this is a new govt with polar opposites in regards to president/cabinet/treasury sec/advisors etc. The govt tone your scenarios seem more consistent with an Obama admin vs a Trump administration. I could be too trusting, we will see I guess.

In the Bloomberg piece it said Mnunchin was rewarded for his loyalty on the campaign trail with the treasury position. Trump was also impressed with how much money he made at Onewest. Now trump/mnunchin just need to be faithful to Paulson/Berkowitz and be impressed with how much money they made with Fannie.

I have thought about this a lot as I'm sure others have. Only "black swan" event I can see really screwing those speculatively buying now in either common or preferred is Mnunchin changing his mind and doing a 180 on what he has said before. That or he takes a harsher then expected stance on shareholders to the point that they want to continue to pursue the legal route because any deal worked out is unattractive to plaintiffs. This would necessitate Mnunchin to: 1. Turn his back on Paulson/Berkowitz/Icahn etc and whatever relationship they have with himself and trump. 2. Put the gov/Trump administration at risk for what the hidden documents may or may not show if anything. 3. Potentially go against his own beliefs regarding the mortgage market/housing policy etc due to heavy pressure from within the gov 4. Take a much harsher stance on shareholders then what the administration including himself, Trump, Cohn has previously projected. As I mentioned before and as I think we can all agree now this really is no longer an investment with a legal catalyst. It all rests with one person. We can all infer nearly the same things from what we have read, heard, seen etc over the last 3-4 months. The most we can do is take the man and admin. at their word for now.

Found this today http://seekingalpha.com/news/3242565-pence-appointment-makes-frannie-recap-release-less-likely-cowen http://www.politico.com/blogs/donald-trump-administration/2017/02/pmark-calabria-chief-economist-trump-234845 https://www.alt-m.org/2017/02/06/the-treasury-should-revive-the-snow-plan-for-limiting-gse-debt-issuance/ Interesting to see Parrot quoted in the one article.

This was posted on stocktwits FWIW ... not mine https://www.docdroid.net/qLK4Xi3/fnma-valuation-scenerios.pdf.html

not to mention why put yourself through the questions regarding conflict of interest with the Fairholme case. That would obviously be coming and why upset what could go smoothly with mnunchin etc.

Anyone's have any insight or educated guess when the mnuchin vote may take place?

Maybe Im just thick but being I hold mostly preferred I figure I would try to understand this. Outside of a purposefully attractive conversion rate to common and ability to hopefully participate in more upside over $25 a share why would a preferred shareholder convert?

I also think that even tho there is more certainty regarding fate of FNF then ever there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding ultimate value for the common and preferred. The par value of the preferred gives some benchmark to at least argue against +/- any div that may ever come.

bingo. the lack of creativity by investment professionals in regard to the warrants is astonishing. if/when trump sits down to decide on amendment 4, after being briefed on the contents of most if not all of the 12000 documents and given the financial return to date for the taxpayers, what's he going to do?!?! Despite litigation status, do Trump/Mnuchin already have access to majority of docs? Also, from a legal aspect can Fairholme reach out to Sessions and DOJ following his confirmation or is that not allowed during active litigation? We know the players who'll be making the case for prf'd shareholders, but I wonder who makes it for the common in the event Icahn is no longer an owner. Ackman can certainly get a meeting, but there seems to be no relationship. if they keep the warrants in some fashion, then you're on trump's / taxpayer team in common. if they don't keep the warrants, even better (in most scenarios). if the shares were higher it would require bigger thinking than this simplified analysis imo. but at a 5bn - 25bn mkt cap (with decent odds it's not the high end)?!?!? those selling imo are betting on either confirmation troubles or immediately pending negative court news, which clearly are risk factors. negative court news would certainly be a optical negative but honestly does it even matter at this point? I bet if thats the case you see the prfd drop slightly and if at all come right back on big volume. IMO this is no longer a legal story. The thesis for the investment has passed. This is Mnunchin all the way. This investment lives and dies by what he does influenced or not by outside interests.

I added a large tranch of FNMAH today. Common/Prfd 20% of port, 30/70 common/preferred.

Again, maybe I over read things but look at his body language and eye contact. Something is up.

Once Mnunchin is confirmed any good reasons to not put your portfolio 100% into a preferred if they trade meaningfully still to par? Some of the preferreds are still trading at less then 40% of par value. Only reason I can think not to at this point is that he will screw Preferred shareholders. How low is that percentage what we know based on his testimony, comments, and suspected ties to Paulson/Berkowitz etc? How much more of a home run bet is there the second after he is confirmed?

looks like another delay on Mnunchin.

Dems boycotting vote.

https://www.finance.senate.gov/hearings/open-executive-session-to-consider-the-nomination-of-steven-terner-mnuchin-to-be-secretary-of-the-treasury-the-nomination-of-thomas-price-to-be-secretary-of-health-and-human-services-and-to-organize-for-the-115th-congress Can watch the hearing on Mnunchin

http://dailysignal.com/2017/01/29/13-of-trumps-cabinet-nominees-await-senate-approval-leaving-agencies-without-a-leader/

He must be thinking what we are thinking in regards to Mnunchin. Good thing Republicans hold a majority in the committee and senate.

This and the Mnunchin vote tonight maybe give some light into the big preferred volume friday. As far as Berkowitz, Paulson adding more there have been a couple days of 10million + volume in FNMAS since Mnunchins TV statement. Thats ~half a billion at todays prices.

Agreed, although I wish Mnuchin would have played it a bit closer to his chest. If he gets approved we are in excellent shape. I guess it was easy in hindsight now to see that coming now knowing what Paulson and Berkowitz hold. Still a relief no matter what. ;D Anyone think those of us that hold some common should convert to only preferred?

My other thought was people front running a court decision today.

I could care less about his tax returns. If I could have lowered my income to point of not paying taxes I would have every year I have filed. I take every available deduction there is for me. Does that mean I should show everyone my tax returns? Makes no sense. I think its great he is holding the media accountable. The majority of the media is liberal so this should be expected. Why shouldn't they be called out? How about a question for those who are against Trump and liked the idea of the women's march. Where were all the women marching on the national mall when Bill was railing interns and accused or rape. I dont know whats worse bragging about womanizing or actually doing it. Apparently all of those marching yesterday thought the former.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/298/text