orthopa

Another google search shows he authored the Fannie Mae Transparency act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/298/all-info

Anyone have a feel for what Jason Chaffetz means by this? " these quasi Govt entities are certainly in our sights starting with the biggest liability for the United States Fannie Mae and Freddie MAc .. and there's more Salacious things going on and I did use the right word Salacious .. you'll hear more about that later " Is he on an oversight committee of some sort?

You could look at it this way. For 8 years this happened every 3 months and there wasnt a peep out of any news outlet. Now Reuters, Yahoo, Benzinga, etc are picking this up. If anything many more people are much more aware then they used to be. If anything all this payment does is increase the urgency for action.

There was an inside mortgage finance article that suggests FHFA may switch to a annual instead of quarterly payment to allow some capital buffer again swing in interest rates.

While not stopping the sweep short term is disappointing that isn't the end game we are looking for which will ultimately be reform. Would have been a great sign from Mnuchin none the less. Congress is clearly worried something is brewing at treasury/FhFA. Contrast the sentiment compared to even 6 months ago. Not long ago Corker went on CNBC saying he would short FnF and now he is asking them to not stop the sweep and act unilaterally. Warner also spoke out against Mnuchin at his confirmation hearing as he did not trust him to not act unilaterally on housing reform. Corker, Warner et al have lost the upper hand. We just need Mnuchin/Watt to do what we all want them to do, until then we sit and wait. Corker also writes "Perhaps congress determines it is appropriate to recapitalize significant restructured enterprises as part of a comprehensive approach to housing finance reform." Oh really Mr Corker? Now congress may recapitalize some version of FnF? Huh?

Yeah this is disappointing. And the disgusted Corker is asking Watt not to do anything about it. Ill tell you what I dont think this is bearish at all. It sounds like Corker et al and congress are worried that Trump, Mnuchin, Watt are going to act unilaterally. They also make it clear they cannot stop the aforementioned from acting unilaterally suggesting congress should decide. Corker also says its possible congress could recapitalize significantly restructured enterprises. Why write the letter if you are not threatened? Seems like the pendulum is swinging away from these guys.

If the zombie status remains as it is right now, ithr common and preferred are zeros too, it just will take a long time until all hope isn't gone and the stock prices adjust accordingly. And its been discussed multiple times over the "zombie status" cannot persist. I beg to differ. Whatever can exist for 9 years can exist for 90 years. I have never heard a convincing argument why not. I agree that it those entities probably will not remain in the current state, but I think they could, especially since the status quo works really well for the government right now. I think the argument against zombie state persisting is that GSEs run out of capital buffer in 2018 and need capital injection then or something similar. What if govt does the capital injection but continues the same state with a higher ownership of prefs/warrants/whatever? Maybe this is prohibited. Resident experts will tell you. 8) and if they need a capital buffer, which they absolutely will if they're forever disallowed to save for their own buffer, that cash comes straight from govt. FnF, once a cash cow, becomes a liability. Sure, more preferreds would be issued but what point are they if they essentially have a zero int rate attached to them? And at what point does FnF go on the govt balance sheet? Not as simple as just taking money from the companies in perpetuity.

Paulson's comment that this investment has always been on mnuchin is not surprising. My view is the same. General question to everyone on the thread. I think we know mnuchins stance on FnF and what he would like to see. Is anyone aware of any innuendo or statements that are discrediting to shareholders? ..And secondly for the lawyers. The Sweeney case appears that it could be potentially resolved or still on going on appeal long after FnF reform may be finished or take place. What happens in a situation where FnF are reformed, private and common get zero but Sweeney case ultimately decided positive for shareholders months after?

If the zombie status remains as it is right now, ithr common and preferred are zeros too, it just will take a long time until all hope isn't gone and the stock prices adjust accordingly. And its been discussed multiple times over the "zombie status" cannot persist.

Altria bought in 08-09 and still holding. up 329% plus ~32 dividends reinvested along the way. Wish it was longer but just started investing at that time.

Couldn't find out online - does anyone know? There are no disclosure requirements for it, so no one really knows exactly. It's material though. articles quoting his investment have said "Billion dollar investment". Billions in Fannie Mae. Who knows actual amount though. Ackman no longer discloses too right?

Just some stuff a quick google search brought up.... http://www.canfieldpress.com/receivership-does-not-end-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/240014-making-a-fannie-and-freddie-we-could-live-with http://investorsunite.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Krimminger-Calabria-HERA-White-Paper-Jan-29.pdf No mention where I can see after a quick glance regarding shareholders. Seems like Calabria has a lot to offer regarding restructuring but not property/shareholder rights.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/obamas-final-us-spent-36-million-records-lawsuits-075149807--politics.html

I find it interesting he hasnt talked about it once from what I can remember, even while campaigning.

My guess on stopping the div is no better then anyone else's for reasons already mentioned. Sweeping the dividend does just the opposite building capital, reforming GSE's inviting private capital, etc. The one thing that could certainly allow the sweep to go through would be Trump/Mnuchin knowing that tax reform by August is impossible. So if no decreased rate no DTA's written down so can still sweep. But sweeping does nothing to do any of the above and keeps what could possibly be 10-25 Billion of capital out of the GSE's when he says reforming is essential. Interesting conundrum and to a large degree will show Mnunchins hand. The bull in me says the only way it does get swept is if tax cuts are a pipe dream and write downs will never happen this year. But then there is the zero capital by 2018.... He doesnt really have much wiggle room here. I thought I read the budget comes out thurs. Maybe some clues will be in there.

FWIW has trump ever made a promise specifcally on FnF? I dont remember one. That is a good use of FWIW. and evidence to date indicates that a Trump promise is actually not worth anything at all. :D Whats a mnuchin promise worth?

FWIW has trump ever made a promise specifcally on FnF? I dont remember one.

FWIW people lightening up is what keeps the most bullish of us grounded and is a good thing. When everyone thinks an investment is a home run it usually isnt and vice versa.

Political ill-will. Politics has nothing to do with good outcomes, logic, or solutions. It has everything to do with getting your way and/or making sure your opponent suffers. Self interest. The NWS is immensely profitable for the government right now, why give it up? Mnuchin works for the government now and Trump, who will need every penny he can get hold of for his projects? Why give away the goose who lays golden eggs now every 6 month? I would expect the governement trying to dump FNM/FRE when the housing market goes bad and these entities become liabilities for them. Who do you think would be the best suitors for Fannie and Freddie when the housing market goes bad and wants to dump them? So the gov will keep the money now and then try to find buyers for trillions of dollars of securities when the market turns down? Sounds like a great housing finance plan. I can tell you put a lot of thought into this.

Some of the variable preferred series are trading much cheaper relative to the higher div preferred and common then they have historically FWIW.

Can anyone post the whole article?

I thinking Paulson, Ackman, and Berkowitz as well as some if not all of us were banking on the illegality of the NWS. Dont forget that Paulson had lobbied heavily over the past 3-4 years for GSE reform as another mechanism. The lawsuits were a last option when the enemy gave you no other option of recourse. This was really an only hope when you had with an administration that wanted them gone. This obviously is no longer the case. I think the idea that the court cases (outside of Sweeney releasing some severely damning arguments) doing much regarding bargaining means very little also. That's why this recent court case sell off makes no sense. I think the protecting the tax payers statement by Mnuchin is only a guise to fall back to justify what he is going to do. If the taxpayer is protect unlike last time what really is the problem then? When have politicians given shit about the tax payer? His protection will be a minimal capital level or first loss mechanism.

I thinking Paulson, Ackman, and Berkowitz as well as some if not all of us were banking on the illegality of the NWS. This was really an only hope when you had with an administration that wanted them gone. This obviously is no longer the case. I think the idea that the court cases (outside of Sweeney releasing some severely damning arguments) doing much regarding bargaining means very little also. I think the protecting the tax payers statement by Mnuchin is only a guise to fall back to justify what he is going to do. If the taxpayer is protect unlike last time what really is the problem then? When have politicians given shit about the tax payer? His protection will be a minimal capital level or first loss mechanism.

I would say no. Maybe Im drunk on the Kool Aid but I still believe this has all been a pre meditated one in a million chance that has worked for Paulson et al. If this is a HRC administration no way I would be as confident or even have more then a small speculative position. Due to ignorance I didnt have a strong opinion on the judge nor to I think he was/is aligned as Mnuchin is. Ginsberg was not appointed by a group of Trump economic advisers that include Paulson. What had the judge done previously that signaled he would go the other way? What he appointed by Trump, nominated by Paulson, previous business partners with Paulson? If Mnuchin did not say the things he said or was not a peer to Paulson, on Trumps economic advisory team up until he was nominated again my read is much different. I do appreciate the mistrust as it keeps us grounded and is totally appropriate. I also think there is a big difference between bias in interpretation of the law and bias of a personal friendship. For all intents and purposes as a preferred shareholder you are in the same shoes as the guy who is on Trumps economic advisory team. I think you find out that Mnunchin is like Ginsberg when Pauslon leaves the Trump administration. Paulson will be one of the first to know and does he stick around when his previous business partner, peer, and very likely someone he personally pushed for as Treasury Secretary screws him out of Billions of dollars? All this bipartisan bullshit is just that, bullshit. Mnuchin is on record with Sen Warner not committing to action without legislation and "hopes" for a bipartisan solution. Has anyone thought about this? If Mnuchins plan is to screws shareholders ie Paulson et al,why is Paulson sticking around as an economic advisor? He surely has to know what the grand plan is by now. He may not know granular details but IMO Mnuchin has known the ultimate outcome since November. He is still "working on it". What motivation does Paulson have to stay on to "influence" the President/Mnuchin if he gets boned out of a couple Billion dollars? As observers of the situation we know a lot. The majority of the details are there. FnF are coming out of conservatorship, private capital will be involved and the person who holds a lot of the cards has gone on record as willing to act without legislation. Ultimately it comes down to ....whats a few billion and shaping the future of housing finance between friends?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-02-28/quicktake-the-future-of-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac