orthopa

Trade of the day/week. Do a cash out refinance of your mortgage and buy more FNMA/Freddie preferred!

1. I dont think the public is being misinformed about what mild is. Honestly I do not see any of the panic that anyone of this board, or social media, or media itself is portraying. The presentation of the disease will be and can be very different for different people. As always older people and immunocompromised are at higher risk, but they always have been and always will be. This is common knowledge in the medical community and a reality we deal with every day. This goes for nearly every disease, an especially those infectious. The vast, vast majority of people who contract the virus will have moderate to severe cold symptoms, some may feel like they have the flu. As always just as investing there can be a "black swan" event and a young or healthy person dies. 2. Long term consequences for those who have had covid should be minimal to none...unless you have a restrictive or significant lung diagnosis such as severe asthma, COPD, Lung cancer, and then severe pneumonia. I would think of the long term consequences comparable to the worse cold or flu you have ever had, likely none. 3. Again I don't think that young people are being lulled into a false sense of security. Their expectation of the disease should be similar to the flu/mono/pneumonia, etc all of which happen on a daily basis to everyone. I cant remember the last time I saw a young patient that was worried about getting the flu and under estimating its effect. It just isn't pertinent. Couple of other things I think is miss construed by non medical people esp on social media is the need for testing, testing, testing. For one testing is used to treat a diagnosis. Not prevent the spread of a disease. As I mention in another post we test for the flu every year like crazy. Does nothing to prevent the spread of the disease. What does? Standard precautions!!! Sure knowing someone has covid19 would allow a quarantine but by then its way, way too late. Its been spread on, or has had potential too multiple times. A reasonable understanding of incubation time, spread via respiratory droplets and close contact with others should make this quite clear. FWIW I went down to the 20 bed ICU today. 8 beds are open. The ventilators are all ok and unused lol. ER was slow too. Idk guys, believe what you want but there is no panic here. We will see I guess. Do you not understand the growth argument or are you just willfully ignoring it? Yes I do understand the growth argument (was that a serious question?). Your also aware that I believe there are already hundreds and hundreds of thousands of cases in the US correct? Why are you assuming they are all severe and will require the most intensive treatment? And in your exponential growth model how many are you assuming are severe? why? and what symptoms are you modeling that will be most severe? Are you concerned only about viral pneumonia? Bacterial superinfection? Nosocomial infection? How many are you assuming are symptomatic and recover with little to not treatment then otc meds? Lets start there we can have an intelligent discussion.

What evidence do you have that its not the flu. Mainly looking for personal/observed, preferably not social media or media.

1. I dont think the public is being misinformed about what mild is. Honestly I do not see any of the panic that anyone of this board, or social media, or media itself is portraying. The presentation of the disease will be and can be very different for different people. As always older people and immunocompromised are at higher risk, but they always have been and always will be. This is common knowledge in the medical community and a reality we deal with every day. This goes for nearly every disease, an especially those infectious. The vast, vast majority of people who contract the virus will have moderate to severe cold symptoms, some may feel like they have the flu. As always just as investing there can be a "black swan" event and a young or healthy person dies. 2. Long term consequences for those who have had covid should be minimal to none...unless you have a restrictive or significant lung diagnosis such as severe asthma, COPD, Lung cancer, and then severe pneumonia. I would think of the long term consequences comparable to the worse cold or flu you have ever had, likely none. 3. Again I don't think that young people are being lulled into a false sense of security. Their expectation of the disease should be similar to the flu/mono/pneumonia, etc all of which happen on a daily basis to everyone. I cant remember the last time I saw a young patient that was worried about getting the flu and under estimating its effect. It just isn't pertinent. Couple of other things I think is miss construed by non medical people esp on social media is the need for testing, testing, testing. For one testing is used to treat a diagnosis. Not prevent the spread of a disease. As I mention in another post we test for the flu every year like crazy. Does nothing to prevent the spread of the disease. What does? Standard precautions!!! Sure knowing someone has covid19 would allow a quarantine but by then its way, way too late. Its been spread on, or has had potential too multiple times. A reasonable understanding of incubation time, spread via respiratory droplets and close contact with others should make this quite clear. FWIW I went down to the 20 bed ICU today. 8 beds are open. The ventilators are all ok and unused if not in a room lol. ER was slow too. Idk guys, believe what you want but there is no panic here. We will see I guess.

With all due respect... no shit? It is very obviously everywhere. I'm not sure why you are trying to quote reported #'s when the reported numbers are clearly irrelevant given undertesting. Italy had 20 cases 2 weeks ago. Look at Italy today. So if the numbers are way more inflated then what is being reported, deaths relatively speaking are minimal other then those that are at high risk, and there there is no cure, Whats the fucking problem?

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

What I think of is a failure of leadership at the top to deliver a message. Instead there is a lack of leadership and so people are making all kinds of bad decisions. At the same time a deadly virus called the flu comes back year, after year, after year repeatedly migrating from the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere over and over and over again. Historically this virus has killed more then the corona virus ever will. Every year we get test kits and I order flu tests on 15-20 people a day, the vast majority test negative or are out of the window for tx 48-72hrs (they want one to "make sure" they dont have the flu). My point being we have flu test kits up the ass and it does nothing regarding transmission, who dies, who gets it because of when the people come in etc. Your also foolish to think every person with symptoms gets tested, these people in turn pass it on ever year. People sit in the waiting room, coughing all over each other. Sometimes people look really bad and we transfer them or admit them. Those people are usually elderly or sick already. This happens every god damn year from October till April and not one person ever as far I know on this site, in the media or politically has given a flying fuck. But for some reason now that a couple thousand people WORLD WIDE have died we should be sounding the alarm, taking extreme measures and going pyscho. Guys/Gals this shit happens every god damn year. Its just that no one was aware of it!!!!!!!!!!!! IMO the virus is all over the country, thousands and thousands have had it, brushed it off as the common cold or went in and tested negative for the flu. The vast vast majority have gotten over it, are currently sick and attributing it to the common cold (which the corona virus is btw). Instead of the worrying about testing and quarantining we should be trying to figure out the fastest way to get to spring/summer or increase UV radiation to naturally limit the virus replication as nature does every year. Anyone spent the time yet to figure out why the virus seems to be much more prevalent in the northern hemisphere then southern? The answer is in the sentence above.

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? I know that the internet does not convey tone well, so please believe me when I say that I mean this in the most sincere, non-offense way - I think you should find another line of work outside of the healthcare industry. If your default response whenever someone is ill with an unknown illness or an illness in which there is no cure is to suggest that there's nothing to do, then perhaps trying to help those in need of help is your calling. I agree regarding tone via the internet but thats beside the point. That being said I would have you take a hard look at what the current healthcare system has to offer those with flu who become compromised secondary to super infection or "collateral damage" either metabolic, organ etc. If you were aware you might become very alarmed by friend. Many of those who die due to the flu are not able to helped, nothing can be done. They have irreversible organ/lung damage, do not physically have the immune response needed to fight the virus or would only survive in a vegetative state. My initial assumption is your aware there is no cure for covid19 or the the flu, correct? Again, since there is no cure, outside of supportive measures what exactly would you like a healthcare provider to do? I think this is a good segway into why many on social media, the TV, radio, etc are alarmed by the muted response by health care officials, gov, CDC, etc. Outside of universal precautions and quarantining people THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO!!!!!!!! As cherzeca said above. Where is all the outrage regarding the flu? We deal with that every year and 600-800k people die a year!!! Where is the outrage? The compassion? The love????

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? the normal flu season effect is similar (frankly, I believe worse) to this covid19 effect, which leads one to wonder why we have been so cavalier about the normal flu, which unlike covid19 doesnt have a name and a mysterious and perhaps insidious origin...oh that's right, because most of the fatalities occur to people who are old, and our society mostly disrespects elders and aged. we have a misplaced hysteria re covid19...the hysteria should be directed to why we dont care about normal flu fatalities BINGO. Could not have typed it better myself!

The difference is that all the things you mentioned above are controllable by those individuals who make conscious decisions regarding their lifestyle. Any consequence of their lifestyle choices are theirs (and the tax payers) to bear. The issue here is that we have a contagious disease that doesn't care whether the host is one of hte people you described above, or someone on the other end of the extreme. So while I understand how you think your logic applies to specifically the people you are talking about, it is not irrational for other people to be concerned. Sure concern is warranted but we are seeing first hand an evolutionary response (fight/flight) that is kicking in big time. Sure we can take measures to limit the spread but in all reality there is little we can do.

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation?

The panic of reduced earnings and increased bankruptcies, or the panic of dying? The first concern seems pretty real, with conferences, flights, marathons, all kinds of gatherings cancelled all over (Europe at least), and more and more people "working" from home. I agree with the latter being irrational for most people. What amazes me is how everyday, patients I see in the office, overweight, cholesterol through the roof, no exercise, smoking, drugs, family hx of dz (DM, high Chol, CA, etc), etc and everyone one of these motherfuckers are guaranteed, a statistically early death, significant loss of quality of life, very high likely hood of limb loss, etc etc and not one of them gives a shit about it. Not a single one. They are GUARANTEED to die much sooner then everyone else and like the vast majority of america they do no care. Not one bit. So yes the panic of dying due to a disease that has killed ~3k people vs the ones that have year after year, after year, after year has killed MILLIONS and will continue to kill MILLIONS is irrational. This whole thing is the definition of irrationality. Because I guarantee more then 1 person sitting here reading this panicking is WAY overweight, eating like shit, smoking cigarettes, with high cholesterol, possibly early undetected cancer, and a horrible family history/genetic disposition that already GUARANTEES a statistically early death. AND THESE PEOPLE HAVE THE POWER TO PREVENT THIS AND WONT DO ANYTHING! Its irrationality, not a fear of dying. That is bullshit.

“Have not seen any corona virus yet” “Reminds me of Y2K” I will be fine. It’s just old ppl who will die, why worry? Incredible. I think its incredible how unhinged you have become. Remind me to be no where near you when the shit really hits the fan. You will have everyone sucking on the barrel of a 12 gauge shot gun praying to Jesus. In all honesty you might feel better if you just got it right away and survived?

The panic of reduced earnings and increased bankruptcies, or the panic of dying? The first concern seems pretty real, with conferences, flights, marathons, all kinds of gatherings cancelled all over (Europe at least), and more and more people "working" from home. I agree with the latter being irrational for most people. If your going to die from it, your going to die from it. WTF are you going to do about it?

I don't think many here are panicking that they might die from the virus. But the economic impact will be real and non-trivial. So sell your stocks, and draw from your emergency fund.

Just reading through some of these comments last couple of days some of you guys really bought into the panic of this huh? Reading and watching all of this reminds me of Y2K. I work in healthcare, have not seen any corona virus yet and honestly I hope if it comes to my area I hope I get it right away. Significantly limits my ability to get reinfected. All evidence points to at my age it will be mild and flu like and will allow me to eventually get back to my job with a low level of worry. I have a very low level of worry now. This seems to be affecting old/ immuno compromised people the most( like everything else) These people bluntly are going to die at some point in time sooner then their more resistant counterparts. Not much at this point any of us can do otherwise. The panic is irrational.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-02/fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-s-fate-is-in-the-hands-of-one-man. Couple more clues released but looks like Capital Rule maybe later then 1st quarter. Ho hum.

I don't think they can and I think both Calabria and at times Mnuchin have made it pretty clear that will be the case. The problem IMO is the market doesn't believe them and frankly the preferred could do decent but in 1-2-3 years. I wonder if losing all of these cases would have put preferred holders in a different position. We obviously would have less leverage at the table but would probably be further along in the process.

MA

Basically the all-important potential 4th amendment keeps getting delayed for either political or legal or greed reasons despite material leadership turnover risk. Shockingly Calabria even talked about another letter agreement extension which I guess is now the base case if Trump wins and Seila doesn't produce backward-looking relief that is also applicable to Collins. In this potential scenario, they'll likely want to hear the APA case resolution from SC before potential 4th amendment action. And if Trump loses, then then we enter the lame duck period having little leverage. I agree, FWIW this has become a legally driven investment again. Outcome is a coin flip, we wont know outcome till the fall of a case not brought by shareholders but will impact our claims. Until proven otherwise all time lines mentioned by participants are void and mean nothing.

At this point it certainly is. Hopefully in the end the litigation puts a fork in them. At the same time I wonder now if the litigation is what is delaying alot of this. How can you have a PSPA amendment now or mid year if you dont know what the courts will decide?

Last time Calabria discussed this it was middle of this year (2020). Before that was by end of 2019 when they talked right after the capital level increase. Now end of 2020 for PSPA and 2021 for external capital raise? Frankly I don't think you can even look at that capital raise date or PSPA agreement date and take it seriously.

Tax reform could just have easily been used against them and will as the debates heat up. Closer we get to election sure GSE reform could be used but honestly is the average voter going to give a shit? More $$$ has been given to evil corporations and billionaires via tax cuts then any amount the GSEs will. Whats becoming obvious is that the admin/mnuchin/calabria are not going to be nearly as aggressive as signaled earlier. You can blame it on any other priority the administration had but going back to the Treasury plan being delayed by 4 months there has been a consistent and deliberate delay every step of the way. I think at this point its foolish to think that unless forced in some fashion they act quickly at any point. No way. Trump getting elected opens up 4 more years and at this rate it will take a good chunk of that. The question is how long do you want to wait? Want to wait 2-3 more years for 75%-80% of par? At some point it makes sense to take look, be realistic and reassess the situation. What does all of this mean in my opinion? There is a lobby or external source that has been powerful enough to significantly influence the plan, every step of the way. Thats no bueno at this point. Absent a court ruling that forces their hand this could take 4 more years. Do we get made whole? I guess but it eats into returns and their is the opportunity cost of holding. Again I maybe reaching maximum pessimism but there is every reason to expect the longest, most drawn out version of this recap you can imagine. For some that may mean waiting 10,11,12 years.

I certainly didn't expect this to be the moment we have been waiting for. Just very tiring with the constant delays an extended timeline. I really do hope that legally their hand is forced or meaningful action takes place before election as a safe guard. If not we could again hear in Trumps victory parade that reforming FnF is a priority. Just like Mnuchin said going on 4 years ago. If their hand is not forced in some fashion it very well could take year(s) from now to get anywhere near par. FHFA took an extra 3 months just to hire a financial adviser. 3 months more for capital rule, then FnF advisor, then PSPA agreement, then consent decree etc, court appeals, etc etc. There are many steps to come before we may see anywhere near par, a conversion or public offering. Without a court ruling forcing their hand (hasn't happened yet in what 6 years?) and trump re elected we could be looking at years before this is all said and done. Maybe Im reaching full pessimism but there has been little to nothing suggesting that wont happen, and everything that has happened suggested it will. I can also say now i misjudged for the worst Mnuchin and Calabria and actually believed what they said publicly in any relation to time line/expectation. You can throw in Otting too. Looking back that was big a moment and a turn for the worse in regards to timing, probably much more then we realized then and now. Shame on me and shame on all of us, as most wouldn't be in the trade if we didn't at least partially believe what they said. If they continue to delay as they have, continue to vigorously defend lawsuits (how much more cover do you need?), and continue to lower expectations one has to think that Trump losing the election probably would allow the best/fastest outcome for shareholders.

Mnuchin and Calabria basically said read our Treasury plan and we have no idea what we are going to do. Its been ~5 months since the last PSPA agreement and they are still "considering" changes. All in all what a joke. Unless forced by courts these 2 seem not willing to act before the election. If Trump wins and nothing meaningful has been put in place I will highly consider reducing my position as that opens up another 4 year window of I dont knows, working with congress, and court appeals. Fuck that. At this point a lot of time and money has been spent/invested in this. From an investment standpoint urgency is the key that determines outcome and we can see there is none. November and all that transpires before then cannot come soon enough.