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Thanks enjoyed article very much. Has anyone here read any of the books referenced in the article?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1543834260&play=1 Robert Olstein: due to all the ETF' investing, stocks are more correlated creating a herd mentality, and an opportunity for stockpickers (like those on this board). Optimistic video to balance out all the worry re macroeconomic issues

" I'm not sure why Buffett goes on CNBC rather than Bloomberg. " I think I read somewhere that he has CNBC on but mutes the volume.

Myth + ericopoly, thanks, that makes sense.

With interest rates being very low are their any concerns with future book values of these securities, especially seeing that they all hold large % of their book value in bonds, Would L, BK, L just hold these bonds + collect interest. 10 year rates ~ 3% currently. Is anyone thinking that this could go up to 6% over next 5 years which would cut the book value of 10 year bond in half, would it not? I guess if interest rates rose it would indicate more inflation, which would probably result in higher underwriting profits, as these companies would be able to charge more for insurance. I have heard that deflation, and subsequently lower interest rates is possible, though I have a hard time accepting this. I can t stop believing that the government will manipulate and do everything possible to get inflation.

" I only own Loews right now. It is my biggest position." If you don't mind me asking, what % of your holdings do you have in Loews? I have been sucking my thumb, waiting to buy some L. I don t know what I am waiting for. I have listened to their conference calls + I will really like what I hear. I have tried to read their 10K's and 10Q's, I have found them hard to read.

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/the-case-for-less-liquid-stocks/ Illiquid securities. A good pond for small investors to fish in?

Any thoughts as to what the thought process was? Any insurance guys here know how you would price it as an insurance policy?

Myth, Thanks for the Jim Rogers link. I always enjoy listening to him, though he seems to be preaching the same for message for years, that being the devaluation of various fiat currency,+ the depressed value/investment opportunity in commodities. His thesis makes seems to make sense. anyone here making any direct investment in commodities? I have always thought they were high risk + speculative. I prefer the idea of being a buyer of "businesses". I still have a high percent in cash, which helps me sleep well at night, but am worried about the devaluation of cash over time.

I am thinking that China will want to buy more hard assets (energy,metals, lumbar etc)

what do you think of SU? Drilling costs -offshore + onshore are sure to rise as a result of the BP spill. Cost of oil will likely rise, especially if economy continues to recover. SU does not depend on drilling (mines the oil), but will benefit from rise of oil. Has 27 Billion barrels of oil, has a market value $52 billion (selling at <$2 /barrel of oil). This seems cheap? Has had bad environmental reputation, but perhaps the oil sands don t look so bad compared to the oil messing up those beautiful beaches. Potential catalyst: with China allowing their currency to strengthen perhaps they will want to buy some cheap energy companies. Disclosure: I own small position in SU + recently added small position of JOE

" Giving money to Prem via a loan is not him betting against you. You are physically giving him your capital, and the he is going to try to do well by you with it." Thanks Ben, I agree. I am pulling for Prem to do well. I was thinking that Prem was buying his umbrella on a sunny day, when price is good, instead of waiting to buy when it is actually raining when pricing will be dearer. I figured then that Prem felt that 7.25% rate was good which would mean that were in for much higher interest rate down the road (as a result of higher inflation) as noted above by Myth. Will I regret locking up money for the next 10 years at 7.25%? Especially with new issues I always try to think why they may be selling. I also consider who I am buying from. I agree the market should not be a casino, but it is the responsilbility of each of us to look after ourselves. If you re playing poker against Maverick is it not wise to recognize it? At the same time Ben I agree though that it is much healthier thinking the way you do.

I am surprised as well re rate of 7.75%. Is Prem telling us what to expect in the next 10 years? I was at the local credit union the other day to see what they can offer in fixed income (GIC's). Like all banks they are offering next to nothing in interest. Normally, I would be interested in buying 10 year paper at 7.75%, except that I would not like to bet against Prem. What are others thoughts? I own Odyssey Re Holdings Corp. 8.125% Pfd. Series A ...are others switching to this paper if ORH paper called in by FFH?

' 65-75% chance of it going zero tells me that you should not do it or you should do it with relatively small portion of your portfolio...I am probably wrong, just putting this out for my own education

Agree. Should be good for Canadian oil, oil sands, natural gas

great story

I can't think of a better use of 30 minutes for anyone involved in this industry. (Bonus: you will also get a good sense when we will next see a P&C hard market) http://ir.wrberkley.com/events.cfm What does this mean for an investor in insurance companies? Everything. Reserves are easily manipulated and companies naturally save for a rainy day when times are good and withdraw reserves when times are tough. There is no other business that depends as much on trustworthy management. Reading a stack of K's/Q's for metrics is not enough. Without understanding what motivates management and how that squares with their actions over previous cycles, an investor can easily get lulled into commitment of capital that in hindsight looked too good to be true. Thank you for the link! Never heard Mr Berkley speak before. Enjoyed presentation. Informative. On an aside, I have not noticed an appreciable decrease in the P&C insurance rates on our commercial property since 9/11. I can vouch to the stickiness of customers as described by WRB. We have not been aggressive seeking out better quotes.

"... why haven't you read all the 10-K's and 10-Q's for all the companies in the industry? ..." Have you really read ALL the 10Q's and 10K's on all those companies? That is a heck of a lot of reading. Do you read word for word or do you skim thru and look at financial statements. Personally,I have room for improvement regarding performance but have to ask the others on the board how much they read on each investment. I usually do a quick screen on any idea I come across. Look at a summary of their income statements,current balance sheet to see if would be something I would be interested in. If I find it potentially interesting then I will read recent + past 10K + Q's, press releases, investor presentation. Usually I try to stay within a certain industry, I don t go into the same detail on their competitors which may be a mistake. Reading ALL the 10K's + 10 Q's for all the players in an industry seems like a daunting task. Can you not be "roughly right rather than exactly wrong" without reading all those 10K's + 10Q's?

did charlie munger not say that in general, the insurance business is not a good business to be in. I thought I read that recently? I have bought FFH, BRK in last 3 years and am looking at adding L. Is it wise to have a basket of insurance companies? Why not stick with your favourites-it strikes me that most here like + own FFH, BRK, MKL ie why own your 3rd or 4th best idea in the sector especially if it is true that insurance business can be difficult and not a good business according to munger

latest commentary from Adventures in Capital http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2010/06/06/Got-Gold.aspx

yes. Sorry forgot to paste web address...still half asleep.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/208588-interview-jim-rogers-on-currencies-and-inflation

Interesting article comparing recent black swans in baseball to financial markets

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/06/02/the-ultimate-hedge-in-economic-crisis.aspx "The Ultimate Hedge in Economic Crisis" interesting article from Patrick Cox (never read any of his previous stuff). Unconventional opinion. May be worth considering.

I saw this on Farnham blog which supports above: http://1440-68131.blogspot.com/2010/05/great-video-what-motivates-people-to.html