Jurgis
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Covid predictions for GoodJudgement:
https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1389
(Scroll for other questions or go through: https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/
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"Molly's Game" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4209788
The movie is well made and might be interesting for poker players, investors, and overall wannabes.
IMO it's a total fantasy though. [spoilerS] The main character is guilty as a f&*k and totally whitewashed in the movie. So there's that.
I'd give it 7/10 overall, but ding it to 5/10 for the whitewashing fantasy.
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Maybe I should have posted it in the BOMN thread?
https://www.sunshinelady.org/sunshine-ladys-charitable-work-for-warren-buffett-clouded-over/
Interesting article.
It seems that genetically Warren is not in a good shoes. Dementia, cancer and cardiac problems. OTOH Doris lived to 92 and Warren seems to be mostly fine still.
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I thought the same, but then covid happened and my diversified liquid real estate stocks went down 30-50% and my illiquid levered and concentrated suburban single family home went up in value by 5-10%, so what the hell do i know?
Well, yes. Also, as you know, REITs != RE.
If you get into a superwave of RE appreciation in some local market (SoCal for last 50+ years? NYC from 70s? Canada RE?), RE might outperform stocks with little effort. Especially considering leverage, etc. So, yes, it is opportunity for not-stock-savvy people to make (a lot of) money.
OTOH, even OK markets, especially without accounting for leverage, usually give meh results. Boston is an example of a market where RE has done "well". And unleveraged returns still are in 3% annualized range. We could probably check Buffett's house appreciation since his purchase to see how Omaha did. Lithuania is pretty much zero for last 10+ years. So for non-stock-savvy people there it's pretty much crap return.
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The coronavirus crisis has spawned “ebitdac”, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation — and coronavirus
rb, FT stole your idea... ::)
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My issue with owning Florida RE is everything is in the flood zone except I think St. Petes.
I'm no expert but I think this means your flood insurance rates are astronomical.
Most of the homes, especially in the Keys are built to avoid that. For instance where I'm at is roughly 8 ft above see level. And the units are an additional 10-12 ft elevated.
Most of the complexes and homes look like the one in this link:
https://blog.iese.edu/doing-business/2016/08/22/climate-change-and-the-florida-keys/
End of the day, if you are hugely concerned about global warming and not bullish on dredging/seawall type engineering solutions, its probably not the place to buy property. If you arent, there is hardly anywhere like it IMO, especially of you like fishing, scuba, island life, etc.
So, Gregmal how much is the approx. property insurance ( including wind and flood) for your ~ 500k condo?
Risk perception is subjective, but insurance rates aren’t, imo.
Isn't Florida flood insurance subsidized by NFIP?
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/fl-op-com-flood-insurance-fix-20190102-story.html
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Hate to say it, but if you can't trust your own family - you have far bigger issues than digital nomadism!
Have to assume that you can't trust your current/future spouse either?
SD
Why would you assume things?
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To be fair to SD, there seems to be (at least) two universes of friends/families:
1. The ones where it's a great/good experience to invest/manage money/properties/etc. together. These exist as SD claims. Also can be seen from all the investors starting to manage friends/family money.
2. The ones where it's a recipe for disaster. There's definitely non-trivial percentage of these.
There's likely a spectrum between 1 and 2.
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If you just want to buy a property, invest your money with siblings &/or parents. Low risk, trusted partners
You seem to have limited knowledge of families... ::)
Worst idea ever for non-trivial percentage of people. :-X
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They dont need more cash, so stay invested.
This is my thought as well. They already have a cash problem. Why add to it?
I disagree for two reasons:
First, I don't think this is a good reason to own an overvalued security. Assuming of course WB thinks Apple is overvalued.
Secondly, I don't think they have a cash problem. Having loads of cash isn't a problem, the problem is WB did not use it a few months ago. So if you think they should hold Apple today, then you must also think WB made an error in Mar-Apr not diving into equities head first.
I agree with LC. Needing cash (or not needing cash) isn't a good reason to make buy or sell decisions. Imagine running your own portfolio that way. I know multiple people who took cash out of 401Ks during the Great Recession because they lost their jobs and needed cash. This kind of thing is the polar opposite of value investing.
The fact that arguments like this about Berkshire (shouldn't sell possibility overvalued positions because marginal value of additional cash is low given how overcapitalized and cash generative the company is) make some intuitive sense speaks to Berkshire's size being an issue.
There are three connected issues really:
- Selling appreciated stock in taxable account is always a high hurdle, since any alternative (cash or other position) would have to outperform taking into account tax hit
- This is further aggravated by existing and increasing cash position
- This is further aggravated by very limited universe of investment options due to the size
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1) Buffett turns 90 later this month. What happens when the greatest capital allocator in human history is gone?
Honestly, I think Buffett's successor will have a difficult time of it unless (a) the company can be broken up and/or (b) a dividend can be put in place. Berkshire has become so large and unwieldy that I struggle to see it outperforming the S&P 500 with a mere mortal making the capital allocation decisions. It needs to be cut down to a more reasonable size.
2) Berkshire's AAPL position is now valued at over $100 billion. How is everyone thinking about this position in the context of valuing Berkshire?
1) I agree with you. A lot of people don't though. 8)
2) I hold some AAPL outside my BRK position. I bought most of it before Buffett bought it for BRK. I think that AAPL is currently valued for ~5% return assuming 7% growth rate (that's what Morningstar expects - this might be optimistic or not) and terminal 15PE. Assuming higher growth rate or higher terminal PE, the expected return could be higher. I have trimmed AAPL at lower prices and might trim again. In most situations it is a mistake to trim/sell forever holds. Anyway, this is not AAPL thread. AAPL discussion should be moved to AAPL thread. 8) From Berkshire perspective, I don't expect Buffett to trim, but he has surprised in the past. Taxes on gains is a crap though.
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Some places have 2 seasons and are desirable in summer and winter. I am a big fan of the mountain states and I think the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and Flagstaff are great locations (albeit not cheap). If you don’t mind the Mormons and weak beer, then Utah has great areas too.
If using it as a second home, you need to consider airport connectivity too - Flagstaff via PHX works great.
Is Flagstaff actually a place to live? I've been there couple times while going to Grand Canyon and IMO it's basically a deserted gateway town with couple hotels for cheap people who don't want to pay up to stay next to Grand Canyon. Pretty zero attractions. Yeah, you can drive to Grand Canyon and Sedona, but ... ::)
I know you hate Phoenix, but Phoenix is actually big enough (actually maybe too big right now) to have restaurants, culture, activities, etc. Flagstaff IMO is dead. Though maybe it has changed in the last 10-15 years since I stayed there. ::)
Well, I went there only once about 10 years on a trip to the mountain states (NM, AZ, CO, UT) and there at least a few good breweries and mexican restaurants there, so there that.
Phoenix as a city is actually OK, as there are nice areas, but the climate just brutal. We went there in fall and the Thermometer of our showed close to 120F, so it’s basically a hellhole (urban hotspot). Las Vegas is the same. I have complimentary things of Tuscan and the temperature there are much more moderate, but still quite hot.
Personally, my favorite from the mountain states is CO.
I think I agree with you then.
Phoenix and Las Vegas have tons of amenities, but climate is brutal.
I kinda liked Salt Lake City when we stayed there couple days while doing Canyons-Yellowstone trip. Nice city center. Good veggie restaurants. Not sure if I would like to live there long term with Mormons.
I don't remember Colorado that much, but I think Denver and Boulder were fine.
I think Albuquerque and Santa Fe are OK too, but not sure about climate.
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Airbnb will give you pretty nice discounts on monthly rentals (I think technically it is 28 days), that might be the ticket to allow you to scout out a few different locations to see if it's just an itch you want scratched or want to jump in deeper. I just did a sample scan for St. George, Utah for September with multiple places offering 45% discounts.
Definitely this.
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Some places have 2 seasons and are desirable in summer and winter. I am a big fan of the mountain states and I think the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe and Flagstaff are great locations (albeit not cheap). If you don’t mind the Mormons and weak beer, then Utah has great areas too.
If using it as a second home, you need to consider airport connectivity too - Flagstaff via PHX works great.
Is Flagstaff actually a place to live? I've been there couple times while going to Grand Canyon and IMO it's basically a deserted gateway town with couple hotels for cheap people who don't want to pay up to stay next to Grand Canyon. Pretty zero attractions. Yeah, you can drive to Grand Canyon and Sedona, but ... ::)
I know you hate Phoenix, but Phoenix is actually big enough (actually maybe too big right now) to have restaurants, culture, activities, etc. Flagstaff IMO is dead. Though maybe it has changed in the last 10-15 years since I stayed there. ::)
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Buy the home/condo to live in - and rent the vacation property as/when you need it.
SD
+1.
I agree with SD. I thought about buying 2nd house as investment in Florida in 2008-2009 crash, but for me the headache of upkeep is not worth it. Thought about buying a 2nd house in Lithuania, but same thing - actually even more headache to keep unoccupied or partially occupied.
But YMMV. Some people love having multiple houses and are good at either outsourcing upkeep or taking care of it themselves. I know people like that both in US and in Lithuania. It's easier if you're retired and have more time to shuffle between the houses and put down fires. It might be easier if 2nd house is actually an apartment - although that might have different set of issues. It's easier if you throw money at it - for upkeep/cleanup/managing/etc.
Edit: (skip if you want to avoid depressing list of questions from no-second-house whiner): for Florida: who's gonna hurricane prep the house? deal with any damage from storms/hurricanes? for any snowed in locations: who's gonna do snow removal, check for burst pipes, snow dams, leaks, etc.? for any areas with wildfires: who's gonna fire prep the house if there's wildfire? For any locations with not-low-crime: who's gonna check that house is not broken into/etc.? How about heating bills / AC bills while unoccupied? Yeah, most of these can be solved by throwing money at it. Some can be solved by being outgoing and neighbor friendly in some locations and getting neighbors/friends/family to look after your house.
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I, for one, one would be very okay with some tax inefficient trimming, but knowing WEB, that probably won’t happen.
Holding stocks - even forever stocks like AAPL - in taxable accounts sucks.
But then I tax-efficient trimmed AAPL something like 20+% lower. So maybe the right thing is not to trim... ::)
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Murderers. :'(
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Also: Coronavirus roundtable update (just a funny tiktok video):
Tiktok video? Clearly sponsored by CCP.
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What I see in my area is that housing prices are increasing and properties are going under contract the day they go on the market. I think people are fleeing the cities and looking for suburban houses. I think the cities are in trouble.
But are city demand and prices actually dropping?
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Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH!
But... electrolytes!
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Ok, this is a must watch. Playing with masks and blowtorches.. some nice backyard science:
Conclusion: if you keep blowtorch in front of your face, all the viruses will burn to crisp. #novirus #nofear
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Blue Horseshoe loves Kodak
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Thanks for the recommendation - just getting started on this book today. First thing that I noticed is that Berkshire has essentially the same number of shares in 2020 as it did in 1960 - 60 years of net-zero issuance (thankfully for that 1961 share repurchase of 18,139 A-shares: worth $5.3 Billion today)
So BRK issuance of shares for acquisitions was totally covered by 1961 repurchase?
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Yeah, Giverny is pretty impressive.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
Phase 3 trials are for wussies.
True men chew glass, drink jet fuel, and do not need no f**king vaccines.