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Everything posted by Parsad
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TorontoLife: 50 Most Influential 2012 -> P.Watsa @ 36
Parsad replied to berkshiremystery's topic in Fairfax Financial
Looking at the title of the article, it's hard to decipher if this is a compliment or not. I still think Prem should be ranked higher than Drake! ;D Cheers! -
Sokol Says He Should Have Left Berkshire Earlier
Parsad replied to Parsad's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Would any of you ascribe any importance to the word "rapidly"? The word "rapidly" also caught my eye when I read it the first time. I really thought it was both in poor choice and poor taste for Sokol to say that. That being said, Buffett is now in his early 80's and none of us are going to live forever...except Ericopoly, because he can now afford his own cryogenic freezer and monitoring system for the next 50 years! ;D Cheers! -
For our west coast boardmembers, in particular those familiar with the Tully's Coffee brand, actor Patrick Dempsey had the winning bid in bankruptcy court. Growing up next to Seattle, and spending an inordinate amount of time there with family and friends, I'm very familiar with Tully's. I always hit the one in Bellevue/Lincoln Square whenever I stay for a couple of days and am doing some shopping. Cheers! http://www.bellevuereporter.com/news/185696661.html http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/04/showbiz/patrick-dempsey-coffee-chain/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
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Sokol Says He Should Have Left Berkshire Earlier
Parsad replied to Parsad's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Wow, very harsh words. Makes me really wonder WTF went on behind the scenes. Buffett has been behind-the-back vindictive before so I wouldn't be surprised if he did something that crossed the line for Sokol Could be. Or vice-versa. Buffett has always said that "you lose a shred of reputation for the firm...and I will be ruthless!" He cut Alice Schroeder out of the circle pretty quick over the book. If you piss him off or damage his/Berkshire's reputation, you are gone. While the SEC didn't find anything to charge Sokol with, I think everyone here thought it was unethical when the information came out. Cheers! Interesting information...where would you suggest one begin looking to find similar stories about Buffett's behind-the-scenes decisions? It is obvious that he painstakingly grooms his public image, but in private he is a different beast. Read Schroeder's book..."The Snowball". I thought it had too much of the gossipy stuff, but some of that helps formulate how Buffett's relations with people formed or why they may have deteriorated. Also has plenty of detail on his life and business as well. Cheers! -
Sokol Says He Should Have Left Berkshire Earlier
Parsad replied to Parsad's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Wow, very harsh words. Makes me really wonder WTF went on behind the scenes. Buffett has been behind-the-back vindictive before so I wouldn't be surprised if he did something that crossed the line for Sokol Could be. Or vice-versa. Buffett has always said that "you lose a shred of reputation for the firm...and I will be ruthless!" He cut Alice Schroeder out of the circle pretty quick over the book. If you piss him off or damage his/Berkshire's reputation, you are gone. While the SEC didn't find anything to charge Sokol with, I think everyone here thought it was unethical when the information came out. Cheers! -
They are apparently now available inside Fairfax's William Ashley store. Could be a nice fit within the Fairfax family. Already kind of like the See's store inside NFM. ;D Cheers! http://www.teuschertoronto.com/pages.php?pageid=3 http://williamashley.com/web/ http://www.teuscher.com/
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Gun shy Citi is apparently only going to ask for a minimal buyback and no dividend increase! Whereas it looks like JPM is going to do both once again. We should probably hear something about WFC and BAC in the next couple of weeks. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-seek-permission-buy-back-011754399.html
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Welcome Phaceliacapital! Yes, you are correct that there is a good group of core boardmembers. We have plenty of good lurkers as well. Enjoy the board! Cheers!
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Comments by Sokol. Cheers! http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/blog/2013/01/sokol-i-should-have-left-berkshire.html?ana=yfcpc
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@rkbabang, LOL ! That was my first thought when I saw the plot. It does look like a collective FU from COBF members to the rest of the market No, just proof of Buffett's "Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville" analogy. This not a one-off. Many of the same people who made a ton of money on BAC, also made it on Steak'n Shake a couple of years ago, on WFC & GE a couple of years before that, and Fairfax a few years earlier. Swing big when Mr. Market offers you a 30 cent dollar! Cheers!
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Don't forget Larry Sarbit, Leith Wheeler, as well as the guys at Vertex Asset Management...as well as my friends at Riverside Capital...perhaps the only value investors in Saskatoon! ;D Cheers!
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Article on how Apple may already be testing iPhone 6 and iOS 7. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/100350155
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I was assuming that whatever adjustments occur from return of capital or dilution, would equally affect the common as well. Cheers!
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What does that mean, exactly? The warrant price should converge to (common price - strike price) as it approaches the end, and there shouldn't be much risk, presuming it is in the money. What is decaying? If BAC does what is even somewhat close what we think it will, then the warrants should increase in value faster than the common for quite some time. I guess it decays if it doesn't (or people think it won't) make it into the money? The decay means the warrant premium, calculated using Black-Scholes (yes, unreliable I know), decreases in value as the expiry date approaches. So assume in six years, the stock is at $20. There would be no premium at expiry and the value of the warrant would be $20 minus the exercise price of $13...so $7. If the stock for some reason stays at $15 (assume larger than expected legacy issues or loan losses, systemic crisis, whatever), then the value of the warrants say two years from expiry would be worth $15-13, plus probably about a $2-2.50 premium...so less than the current valuation...and that is due to the warrant value decay. Cheers! I see what you mean--I guess since I model it at over $18 (13+current 5), I hadn't really concerned myself with it. My distribution is a lot more common than yours (I'm at a 3:1 common:warrant ratio), so I can understand decreasing to 1:1 in your case. We were nearly the reverse...about 2.5:1 warrrants:common ratio...in dollar value, not number of each! :o We're now about 1.6:1 ratio. As the stock continues to go up, we'll eventually get that down to 1:1 where we will probably hold the rest for a long time...nice fat dividends. Cheers!
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What does that mean, exactly? The warrant price should converge to (common price - strike price) as it approaches the end, and there shouldn't be much risk, presuming it is in the money. What is decaying? If BAC does what is even somewhat close what we think it will, then the warrants should increase in value faster than the common for quite some time. I guess it decays if it doesn't (or people think it won't) make it into the money? The decay means the warrant premium, calculated using Black-Scholes (yes, unreliable I know), decreases in value as the expiry date approaches. So assume in six years, the stock is at $20. There would be no premium at expiry and the value of the warrant would be $20 minus the exercise price of $13...so $7. If the stock for some reason stays at $15 (assume larger than expected legacy issues or loan losses, systemic crisis, whatever), then the value of the warrants say two years from expiry would be worth $15-13, plus probably about a $2-2.50 premium...so less than the current valuation...and that is due to the warrant value decay. Cheers!
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Our warrant position was over twice the size of our equity position...we're just bringing them more into line. That being said, even with six years left, you still have the time arbitrage risk...thus as time passes, you are going to get decay in the underlying value relative to the equity. Cheers!
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Still plenty of room to rise, and lots of room for continued improvement, dividends and share buybacks, but the dumb money is now finally starting to really come into BAC. We have sold about a third of our warrants now as it was a huge position. We have not and will not sell any equity. Cheers! http://www.thestreet.com/story/11802314/1/bank-of-america-analyst-conviction-buy-after-110-gain-in-2012.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
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Also agree...Looper was terrific. Cheers!
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The world, in particular the U.S., would have been better off if we did go over the cliff long-term, as the cuts would have actually started to fix things. But markets seem happier that the can was kicked down the road. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/100347673
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Forbes article on Buffett's $3B+ donation. Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2013/01/01/billionaires-dominate-list-of-the-biggest-charitable-gifts-of-2012/?partner=yahootix
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Speaking of "The Town", I thought Argo was one of the best movies of the year as well. Who would have ever thought that Affleck was a hundred times the director he is actor? Three movies directed and all three were fantastic..."Gone Baby Gone", "The Town" and "Argo". May be the best start for a director in a while. And he's a far better actor when he's directing himself...amazing. Cheers!
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Yes, I liked it other than the super-hero type analogies and dialogue associated with him..."He's the type of man you don't find...he finds you!"..."He's the type of man who will always do the right thing, no matter what the situation." It's actually more of a thriller/detective mystery than just an action movie, but the action is pretty good too. He may be crazy, but there is probably no better action star than Tom Cruise when it comes to that stuff as well. He's fantastic in the fight scenes, and they are pretty brutal...no Jason Statham taking on 20 guys with no bruises...the fight sequences are much more real in this. One of the better car chase sequences in recent memory as well..."Drive" comes to mind as the only other one in the last few years...but Cruise does all of his own stunt driving and it's pretty damn good! Cheers!
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AIG runs a new ad campaign. Cheers! http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/31/news/companies/aig-insurance/index.html?source=cnn_bin
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I thought both Prometheus and End of Watch were good...except the ends! ;D Quite surprised by how good End of Watch was actually...the chemistry between Gyllenhaal and Pena was really good...they must be buddies in real life. Cheers!
