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Everything posted by Parsad
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Terrific article on Amazon's CEO in Forbes. Thanks to Glenn for sending it to me! Cheers! http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/
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T. Boone Pickens thinks we are getting close. Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/47019830
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Should be a very interesting quarterly report on April 19th. Hopefully, they've moved forward a long ways with "New BAC". Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-replacing-cio-consumer-banking-222954239.html;_ylt=Avfo8FlZ8Kv4jakC2XRw9a2iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0MnZ1aDZ1BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDM2QyMWRlNDktOTE5YS0zYjg1LWExMGUtNDM3ZDU1OGU2MGEyBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzJhMGRiMmIwLTg0MjYtMTFlMS1hNzZmLTdmNGEwMDhhOGY1MQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
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Dumb question.. if the current Chanticleer doesn't have the cash flows to sustain expenses, why would the future one have them? presumably the current management will be running the future Chanticleer.. What sorts of mistakes did they make that lead to their not being able to cover expenses? Certain expenses are fixed or recurring...salaries, office space, legal, accounting, etc. Those costs will not increase significantly, even though net cash flows from more and more restaurants will. There was no real mistake. They had closed the deal on Texas Wings and Hooters Inc (not Hooters of America), along with financing, back in late 2007/early 2008. But when the credit crisis hit, the financing fell apart. Once that happened, they had already incurred hundreds of thousands in legal and acquisition exploration costs, leased new office space, and hired a couple more staff internally. Because the deal could not be consummated, they had to sell off chunks of other assets just to pay bills. The only ace up Mike's sleeve was the right of first refusal he had on Hooters of America if it ever was sold. When HOA was finally sold, he exercised his right and that's where we are today. He's on the board, they have a very small investment in HOA, but he's been granted the right to expand the business internationally. Cheers!
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Who knows, but I would say another year. You are starting to get diesel, gasoline and coal users switching to natural gas, but the amount of supply is still significantly above demand. At some point as the transition continues, that will start to get closer to parity. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/drillers-dropping-diesel-cheaper-natural-210751346.html;_ylt=Am.E3X2gu9NXVfAi72w7dN6iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0ZGtyZmZzBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDZmRiNTg2OWMtMDMxYS0zYjEzLWI3N2EtMjk4Mzg0OWY5MTg2BHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2RkYWI2OTQwLTg0MWEtMTFlMS1iZjNhLTg5MTJkMzIyOWNiNQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3 So I would guess we are at least a year from that, but you will start to see consolidation before that in the industry as exploration companies need to minimize costs. Cheers!
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Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
Guys, I wasn't being critical of him working from home...I was joking about his pajamas and naps! Cheers! I knew that. I was just saying what I thought was proper for an optimal work experience. By the way, I thought you were over-reaching on Friday...you know that you still need to wear a tie and not open collar! ;D Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
Sweden. Our rules are A LOT stricter than yours in this area. I have read them through and through and there really is no way to make this happen while still being cheap and legal at the same time. Ah, I see! So living in Vegas would be a huge step too. Instead, keep playing poker, accumulate some more money, and see if you can buy a piece of Modo! ;D Or just fly to Vancouver and watch a Canucks game...we have half the national Swedish team playing for us. Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
Guys, I wasn't being critical of him working from home...I was joking about his pajamas and naps! Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
Volunteer work is great. If you can't or wont give up of your time, again you can set up some very nice fund raisers. I do this a few times a year also. Look into starting your own on line Poker site. Thats right, I said it!!!! Good luck. You dont need it! Couldn't agree more! Volunteering is a great idea. And if you are seeing problems with poker sites, maybe it is time to create one that will attract some of the type of players you are friends with. Although I see legal problems being even more costly there than a fund. Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
My two cents on working from home (I do this 4 days a week for my job): 1) have a decent set up that you can sit and be happy with for hours. 2) always wear pajamas! (but be sure you are dedicated to work, if you need regular clothes for it, then do that, but I never have any issues with getting things done) 3) take naps in the afternoon (amazing). Racemize, either you are unemployed or Mohnish Pabrai! And I know you're not Mohnish! ;D I can't get a lot of work done from home, so that's why I have an office downtown and I work from Starbucks on Fridays near my house and gym. If I stay at home, there are too many distractions. Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
Online poker has gotten a lot less lucrative in the last 2 years or so. People I know who made loads of money when I also did are barely winners now (poker bots and the art of finding easy targets have been refined to an almost crazy extent), so going back to playing online is not really a live option. I do however still go and play live games from time to time. They can never yield the same hourly wage because they are imminently slower, but they will probably always be soft for someone like me. Going full-out live pro would however force me to move far away from here and it's not really appealing in terms of social life and working hours. Buy a condo in Vegas for less than $100K, and play real people at the casinos 3-4 times a week, four months out of the year. The rest of the time, manage your own money and go do your CFA, or study what you want if you don't really want to invest other people's money. Even pooling money from family and friends and managing it for a fee is not really legal here. Providing financial advice or assistance requires registering with our SEC and that is really costly. Where are you and under what rule do you have to register? Unless you are giving investment advice and acting as a financial advisor, you do not have to register with the SEC unless you are managing $100M in assets in virtually every U.S. jurisdiction that I'm aware of. Regardless, whatever you decide, you have a pretty darn good problem to deal with...I'm in my 20's, financially independent and can choose to do whatever the hell I want with my life. Wow! I'm pretty sure half this board would trade places with you in a heartbeat! ;D Cheers! -
Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
In general, I would say play poker, invest, socialize, exercise, contribute to your community, learn something new every year, and of course, when in doubt, f*ck. I couldn't stop laughing at the last part! I guess he's right. ;D Cheers! -
The owner's of Buffett's childhood home are auctioning off an intimate dinner for 10 in the house with a starting bid of $6,000! And that is with no Buffett clan member attending. You do get a video from Buffett welcoming the guests to the house and reminiscing about his childhood there. The auction is for a non-profit organization. This is for the diehard cult followers! Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/group-auctions-dinner-buffetts-childhood-143638911.html
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Questions for the early 'retirees' on the board
Parsad replied to alwaysinvert's topic in General Discussion
I am currently struggling a bit with the decision of either going to school (late, I'm in my mid 20s) or just keep on managing the money I have earned over the last few years (+$1.5m, mainly through online poker, so I am no stranger to mentally strenous work with volatility and a fair amount of lonely work). The only thing I am truly interested in pursuing at this point in time is investing. I have had pretty good, market-beating, results over the last few years but am of course a novice compared to most of you. Sadly, at this point there is pretty much no possibility legally to try my hand at managing other peoples' money. You already know what you should be doing full-time...playing poker! Why can you not manage money? What legal obstacle is preventing you from doing so? The other question is do you really want to manage other people's money? It comes with a whole host of challenges that you don't experience managing your own money! I am asking to get some wisdom about the obstacles and routines of only investing for a living from some more experienced people on the board. Do you have an office away from home? Regular work hours? Are there some people who have had to go back to regular work because it was too taxing? All input is welcome. Regular hours and then pretty much into the night and weekends...office both downtown and at home (I work from home or a Starbucks on Fridays ;D )...never, ever too taxing and absolutely love every aspect of it! I couldn't dream of anything better. I've been very fortunate because our partners, who are all individual families or trusts, fit in perfectly and understand the culture of our funds. Made a ton of great friends as well...both from our funds and this board! Cheers! -
Long-term shareholders were given warrants to buy stock at a good price over the next five years, so that will temper the dilution a bit. At the same time, ask yourself which piece of the pie do you want to own: - the current Chanticleer that doesn't have the cash flows to sustain expenses. - the Chanticleer that will acquire and build nearly 30 Hooters restaurants between now and 2016, where the cash flows will more than cover expenses and should provide a decent rate of return, if not a very good one with the expertise they have. I would much rather own the latter, if the quality of what I own...even if diluted...is significantly better and will build long-term shareholder value. Also remember, that they have the ability to raise $15M, but it doesn't necessarily mean they will raise the total amount. Finally, the shares in the company are closely held, and so it is unlikely that the existing shareholder base would be able to fully subscribe to a $15M issue...it's a 6M company. They need to raise the money to build these restaurants out, and they are pretty much going to be the leader in Hooter's International expansion for the forseeable future. The other side of this is they need to get of size to generate more exposure so they can raise money for Matt and Joe to manage. It's just not happening at the moment, and these guys are smart and need to be managing more money! I'm trying to get close to Mike so I can steal these guys one day! ;D Just kidding...not gonna happen...they are staying put! Cheers!
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Hi net-net, I was trying to point out the way they are using the model...not so much the model itself. Like the way beta is used these days, Z-score in itself is not a good predictor of anything. Most models utilize past data and cannot explain a transitioning financial statement. Finance is never static. Cheers!
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You know what to do, but you have to wait and wait...
Parsad replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Christmas 2012! That's what I said...barring a complete meltdown of the financial markets of course. Cheers! -
You got it! Because they will hit Basel III numbers by the end of the 3rd quarter. You can't discount them below tangible book at that point. Biggest litigation settlement is out of the way, and now they tackle the smaller ones. Book value or better by mid-2014. Cheers!
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You know what to do, but you have to wait and wait...
Parsad replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Waiting for the next quarter's report...then the next...then the next...tangible book by Christmas is what I said all along. Cheers! -
I suspect he would slap these accountants in the back of the head for being so stupid! Altman Z-score! Ignore the fact that it's Overstock.com and they are sourcing Sam Antar and Gary Weiss, but from the numbers they present, the Z-score hasn't successfully predicted Overstock's demise since 2006! ;D I think Z-score and beta must drive Buffett and Munger crazy. Cheers! http://blogs.smeal.psu.edu/grumpyoldaccountants/archives/569#comment-11141
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Indirectly gets control of Netscape too...oh the irony! Cheers! http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e69b676-8265-11e1-9242-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rZVya38y
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Interesting interview with Schiller. One of the few economists who have gotten it right and always admits his limitations. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/robert-shiller-financial-capitalism-taking-over-world-good-130531139.html;_ylt=AkC2Wul5uKa9BhU8BeZp_NKiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ0MGw2czdrBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDNWJjOTcwOTMtNTMyMy0zNjU5LWIxMTgtYWEwMTYzMjEyZGExBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2IxNjUyYjUwLTgyNDQtMTFlMS05YTMzLWNiMDUzNDFmNDFhNQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
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Hi Folks, We are about two weeks away from the Fairfax AGM! If you have not bought your ticket already for the Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Dinner (April 25th in the Imperial Room at the Fairmont Royal York), please do so as time is running out. We have two types of tickets...the full dinner and presentation ticket ($100 + tax) and the presentation only ticket ($50 + tax). You can buy your tickets directly at www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca. On the right hand side of the site is a small ticket purchase box. You can pay by Visa, M/C, Amex, Discover or Paypal. The attached PDF has the rest of the details, including the menu. Thanks very much much and we'll see you there! Sanjeev 2012_FAIRFAX_FINANCIAL_SHAREHOLDERS_DINNER.pdf
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Those three didn't suddenly become stupid! ;D You knew they would always rebound. Cheers!
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You know what to do, but you have to wait and wait...
Parsad replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Liberty, you just realized you're actually human! ;D Fight that feeling of wanting to buy something for the sake of buying. Think about what it was like to buy WFC at $9, BAC at $5, FFH at $80 or SNS at $4. Buy at points of significant pessimism...do you think the markets are feeling that presently? Cheers!