Parsad

After the last few years, I decided I wasn't going to focus on macro at all. I watch it, but I don't focus on it. So when big tech got cheap, I invested 50% into it. First time in my life I owned tech stocks other than AAPL years ago. Now my accounts are stuffed with FFH, META, GOOGL, BRK...and sadly OSTK has not reacted the way I thought it would...still cheap, and we have that call option on the blockchain businesses. Sold all my SHOP calls and have been buying a couple of retail stocks recently. Again, you would think retail would killed in a recession, but they are dirt cheap...and may get cheaper! Cheers!

While liquidity has become tighter, I imagine it will become even more constricted in the next 6 months. Refinancing of corporate, commercial, residential and personal debt is going to be much more difficult over the next 12-18 months. I think for the next 2 years, cash will be king and deals aplenty! Cheers!

You will probably see more similarities over time to Berkshire and Markel. Wade and Lawrence invest more like Buffett and Gayner. Whereas the old Hamblin-Watsa gang were more deep distressed equity/bond investors like Ben Graham or Seth Klarman. As the younger guys have more influence, and the older guys less influence, you'll see the portfolio behave more like Berkshire or Markel. Cheers!

In the short-term, the market is a voting machine. In the long-term, it is a weighing machine. Let Prem do his thing and the market will eventually realize what is happening. Always happens...as consistent as gravity! Just takes a bit of patience. Cheers!

One last clip...while Monty Python was brilliant, I thought Fawlty Towers was essentially one season of perfection! Cheers!

You can also see huge strains at food banks across North America, the UK, etc. Where they are near the breaking point! But it's still a world of two economies...one where pain is being inflicted on individuals and corporations from higher interest rates, inflation and lower margins...and the second where employment is low, spending remains robust and certain sectors are rebounding with strength like hotels, travel, restaurants, shopping, airlines, etc. Hard to tell what the eff is going on...so I just don't really try! Focus on finding cheap stocks and if you can't...buy high yielding T-bills until you do find something. Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-sign-of-trouble-why-more-americans-are-missing-their-debt-payments-193605635.html Cheers!

WTF? Did I tell others what to do? No, so keep your animosity where it belongs.

Wouldn't that apply to probably at least of 10% of current U.S. citizens who go back 5 generations or more? What about 15% of Germans who go back 3 generations to the Holocaust? At some point, people have to accept that history was violent, unfair and certainly not Christian. My family were indentured laborers taken to Fiji from India 5 generations ago. I'm not blaming the Queen for that, as she had nothing to do with it. Hate only leads to more violence and constrains the generations going forward. Cheers!

You mean 1992 Hurricane Andrew? That would be a $100B+ loss in today's dollars. So FFH would take a $800m-$1B loss and BRK would take a $5-8B loss. A portion of FFH's loss may be offset by some reinsurance, but it would still be no less than $500M. BRK would take a $5-8B loss. Fairfax generally can survive an 8.0 earthquake in California and a F5 hurricane hitting Florida...both in the same year. That would be $500-700B in losses in todays dollars most likely. So a $5-7B loss for FFH...remembering a chunk of that would be offset by reinsurance. BRK would take a $25-50B hit. A $5B loss for Fairfax would wipe out 25% of its equity. A $50B hit to BRK would wipe out only 10% of its equity. One other note, insurance is the only business in the world where the economics of the industry are extremely good after the worst possible thing happens. No other industry works like that! So while FFH and BRK would get hit, they would be huge beneficiaries for several years afterwards on premium pricing. It's why risk management is absolutely crucial when it comes to insurance. You manage risk so that your lumps aren't so painful, because once you get through that pain, it's nirvana on the other side! Cheers!

Assume Fairfax is going to get hit by 0.8-1% of any large scale catastrophe loss. Berkshire generally gets hit by 5-8%. I wouldn't worry so much about exposure to a specific region...they are good about that. On a historical basis, they've always fallen into that range and regardless of where or what was hit, they've always managed their losses geographically. If they took on more Florida exposure because rates were good, they probably laid off a chunk of their potential losses through reinsurance. Berkshire doesn't do that...Berkshire is the reinsurer of last resort in most cases. Cheers!

I suspect that's why the Queen at the end of her reign was quite beloved. Yes, the monarchy is outdated and she lived a life of privilege, but 96 years of life sacrificed for one thing...the betterment of her country and duty to it. From the day she was born till the day she died, and how she did it with such class regardless of partisan politics or what was fashionable. There are a lot of people who did the same thing in their own little way. We don't understand that till we start to really age as well! I too have a new found respect at age 54...I joined CARP this year...same thing as AARP in the U.S.! I don't cringe about my behavior when I was younger to the elderly...I have to say I was quite good about that. I just cringe about my behavior in general when I was younger! Cheers!

Did pop to a record $971 CDN today, but then dropped back down. Cheers!

Should note also that the notional amount is $3B compared to a bond portfolio of $32B...so the actual short position is about $300M or so...1% of the total bond portfolio. That's in significant contrast to what their short positions in equities were like in the past. Cheers!

Hopefully not! May have to kick some ass to get people to stop posting that stuff. Cheers!

Nice analysis Viking! Cheers!

Hi Folks, We had the Politics Forum because of all the crap that was spilling into the Investment Forum, but things have calmed down dramatically since Trump has been out of office. I think we can get rid of it now. It will be removed in the next little while. Thanks! Sanjeev

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-pockets-70-000-185148690.html Cheers!

+1! Very true. Another good example is Rose Blumkin, who founded Nebraska Furniture Mart. We all know the story of how after BRK bought NFM from Rose, her kids who were running the store decided to retire her. She went and started a competing carpet store next to NFM at age 95 and began outselling NFM. Buffett had to approach her at the request of NFM and buy out the carpet store, having her sign a non-compete agreement at age 97. Mrs. Blumkin lived for a few more years, but she was a bit heartbroken not to be working anymore. Everything in her house still had little sales tags on them, so she felt like she was still in the store each day. Cheers!

Book is now at $803 USD...should be trading at $1,050 CDN per share at the least. With a steady $1.5B in interest and dividends coming in, P/B should move into the 1-1.2 times range this year. Prem may see the $1,000 USD price per share he predicted a couple of years ago. Cheers!

Just killed it this quarter! Cheers!

+1! I'm going to be 54 in July. Working on it...I would hate COBF to end after I do! Cheers!

Anyone looking at different opportunities to take advantage of the fear permeating markets around a U.S. debt default. This seems to be almost a guaranteed short-term opportunity here to take advantage of the market's pessimism. For example, short-term U.S. treasuries are at unusually high yields and will drop once the debt limit is increased. CDS on U.S. debt are trading above some emerging market debt CDS. Any ideas? Cheers!

MKL had a much higher valuation a long time ago, so nothing new. It was an excellent insurance company under Steve and Tom. Now that Steve is gone, maybe there's too much on Tom's plate, and he hasn't had as much time focusing solely on investments. Regardless, even solely under Tom, it still has a pretty consistent CR and ROE over every time period...thus the confident valuation by the market. And again, this comes back to less leverage, a diversified book of short-tail, long-tail, general and specialty insurance, and a steady three legged stool approach of insurance income, investment income and non-insurance operating income. Cheers!

Markel Ventures I think suffers from a similar problem as FFH's wholly-owned businesses...they just aren't top tier companies! Berkshire generally bought huge, cash flow businesses with competitive advantages that were generally #1,2 or 3 in their industry. While maybe a notch above Fairfax's non-insurance businesses, MV's businesses aren't exactly lighting a fire! Cheers!