whiskybravo

With those low stocks of European natural gas storage, shutdown of Ras Laffan, and nothing moving through the Stait of Hormuz anyway, Europe’s energy vassal state have all set them up for an significant energy crisis. I hadn’t realized it, but Europe still imports significant amounts of LNG (~15%?) from Russia. Before the onset of the recent war in Iran, Europe had been planning to further “punish” Russia by sanctioning this last amount of LNG imports. However Putin has recently commented that in the current situation other markets have opened up and perhaps Russia will just end supplies to Europe now. Add to that Spain has Europe’s largest regasification fleet and is a major hub for American LNG entry into Europe. Sanchez has resisted allowing American use of Spanish military bases, prompting Trump to threaten an embargo, which would throw European natural gas supply into further turmoil.

Trump: When will this be over? Obama: Extends his hand and holds the pastor’s hand. https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-president-barack-obama-prays-with-members-of-the-circle-of-protection-41792218.html

Maybe some of them that perceive Iran as the chief destabilizing threat in the region are cautiously optimistic? Then the primary purpose of the board to reconstruct Gaza might be less complicated.

I am reading the 6th edition of Kandel’s Principles of Neural Science and Bob Spitz’s Dylan biography. As a student I found that I learned more from reading than from attending lectures. I bring that up, because I find myself periodically tempted to sign up for Great Courses. Does anyone subscribe and if so how many courses to you complete over the course of a year. And if you are a reader, do you find it takes away from your reading time. Perhaps it complements it…sometimes you want to go into passive mode? Thank you for any feedback.

Agree on Rubio. They also have good people at Energy(Wright), Interior (Burgum), EPA (Zelden), and others.

Touché!

Doomberg has been bearishness on oil prices, arguing that the world is in a new era of abundant supply and that long-term, structurally low oil prices are likely. They are definitely in the camp that all commodity shortages are followed by gluts. The higher this oil war spike goes the harder the ultimate crash. As far as their view that the U.S. and its allies are dangerously short of air-defense interceptor missiles and that Iran likely has an enormous stockpile of advanced missiles and attack drones, I am not saying they are right. Just that they have enough credibility, that I heed their point of view.

I definitely admire Doomberg. He develops mental models and adjusts them as facts change. He isn’t always right. However his saying in a missile war of attrition time favors Iran does make me sit up and take notice.

Yeah Cubs, I admire your tenacity. People are emotional, I get that. Everyone here has a point of view and that’s cool. I appreciate guys like @Spekulatius that keep it analytical.

So much useless snark! Whiskybravo recedes back to the shadows.

Deal, I’m really sorry you’ve had to live through all of that. No philosophy erases what you’ve experienced. I don’t see lifestyle as a guarantee , just as a way to shift probabilities. But none of us is immune to randomness. Respect for how you’ve handled it.

Appreciate the discussion and agree about genetics/modern medicine. However I also firmly believe small daily inputs are meaningful in the long run. I’m not talking about living forever. I’m talking about putting oneself in a better risk category; maximizing healthy days in one’s life. Lifestyle strongly affects cardiovascular disease including stroke, type 2 diabetes, some cancers, etc. So moderate caloric balance to maintain a healthy weight, regular exercise, minimal processed foods, etc don’t guarantee a long life. But 5-10 quality years with reduced suffering in later years is a realistic expectation for the majority who follow such a course.

I don’t think it’s an education issue. We are more educated on paper than ever. I think it may be more about emotional maturity.

The problem is the electorate. As Churchill said: The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. But as he also said: Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. So until the electorate becomes more sophisticated, which is never, we will live with the inanity. At my age the best solution for me is to tactfully disengage.

Thank you @nwoodman Maybe slightly off topic yes, but addressing your health positively by following these simple common sense measures should be thought of as rule # 1 in one’s life. With rule #2 don’t forget rule #1. I have noticed a big change in physician’s approach to this. My cardiologist makes it a point of importance each visit to address diet, exercise, sleep, etc asking for specifics, not just briefly addressing it in a boilerplate manner. With a little motivation and discipline these changes become a part of your life. Weight loss, better energy, improved self esteem and most importantly improved health and placing yourself in a better risk category are all achievable. Anybody over 40 should be seriously thinking about all of this.

Agreed! I made similar point in the politics section yesterday.

Yes, renewables have been oversold as replacement for traditional sources. China is in fact coming to realize that they likely overbuilt, as wind and solar are seeing increased curtailment. However for Western media, China’s renewable efforts must be seen to be successful. Remember physics always wins. Remember also every bit of carbon forgone in the West will be readily consumed somewhere else.

Hello @John Hjorth This comes from Doomberg’s analysis of the BP/Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. Doomberg’s figures are based on aggregating data from the Statistical Review. https://www.energyinst.org/exploring-energy/statistical-review From Eurostat: From Norway and UK alone oil imports ~20%. Non Norway/UK ~80%. For natural gas Norway/UK ~40% and non Norway/Uk 60%. So of the 38-5=33 exajoules hydrocarbon deficit the majority (~65-75%) is imported from other sources. They have chosen to become energy vassals. The ironic thing is that probably a lot of the foregone industrial production has probably been produced with coal in China. Perhaps it would have been cleaner to keep production in Europe.

Here’s an interesting fact: The 27 members of the EU consume 38 exajoules of hydrocarbons per year and produce only 5 exajoules. As Doomberg says that’s probably going to matter a lot soon.

Fantastic, enjoy Mont Blanc! We had an incredible experience across the border in Courmayeur watching, in the piazza, Italy beat France in the 2006 World Cup final, Zidane head but and all (one moment of satisfaction, one lifetime of regret!). Then the absolute crazy all night celebration.

I read a Seeking Alpha article by Alexander Steinberg in 2024. I then read their reports and listened to conference calls. I was impressed with management, their underwriting discipline, growth prospects, and small size. If they don’t get their rate they will pass on underwriting, just as Buffett has emphasized. Investment wise, they don’t buy or control companies in the manner of Berkshire or Fairfax but their equity portfolio has a definite value approach. They started in Scandinavia, successfully entered Britain (from scratch in 2016 to >40% of gross written premiums). Now they are entering France, so significant growth still ahead. It dipped about 20% in Summer 2004, but was starting to go up as I became confident. I opened an Interactive Brokers account and bought my position in Oslo late September to early November with a cost of 263. Added kicker NOK up 12% against the dollar this year.

When I was in my twenties and early thirties I was working hard training to be a doctor and eventually a radiologist. By age 34, I had at last a good income in a secure profession. I saw colleagues working into their seventies, so I knew that I could have a good income basically in perpetuity. My father was an engineer and bought and held stocks. When I was 37, my parents passed away and left five children an inheritance of 400K each. With my profession secure, I felt like my inheritance was house money. I had no knowledge of investing, but buying stocks was subconsciously ingrained in me by my father’s example. I learned of Buffett and started to educate myself. I would try to understand any company that I invested in as fully as I could. That was the only way that I could feel comfortable holding. So for my temperament I was never able to own more than a few stocks at a time. And I always felt that I had my overall downside protected.

My cash position covers 10-15 years of my current level of spending. As the stocks appreciate I will sell to maintain a 10% cash level. Hopefully that level will, in the not too distant future exceed my required spending until judgement day. I may even be at that level now, lol…I try to stay healthy. I am in my mid sixties and have been investing for myself for over 30 years. I have always been comfortable with risk and have concentrated portfolios. I have to have exceedingly competent and exceedingly trustworthy management, as well as a company with a likelihood of high future returns. PROT could blow up (I don’t think it will), but JOE has a very significant margin of safety. But hey anything could happen. That’s where the multi year cash comes in. I have a fully paid condo in New York and a home in Italy. Worse case scenario, we could live in Italy for effectively nothing.

Portfolio: JOE 45.5% PROT.OL 43.5% Cash 11% Up 57% in 2025. Both companies have positive future outlooks so I intend to hold. That’s the plan, but as Mike Tyson said everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Not directly comparable and more risky, but PROT has outperformed FFH YTD and over the past 2,5, and 10 years and since it went public in 2007. At 4.25B usd market cap decent chance of continued out performance.

Soulful, soothing