tede02

I'm pretty late to this thread, but I saw the movie over the weekend and really enjoyed it. I have not read the book, only the Vanity Fair piece which mainly profiled Burry. The movie makes me want to read the book now more than ever to get the more detailed story. Movie get's a thumbs up for me.

Oddball, very good comments. I agree with much of what you said. One of my biggest mistakes (like others) have come from following the BigWigs without doing enough of my own due diligence. I've learned you have to form your own opinion because I've had the big guy I followed sell, then I'm sitting there holding the bag wondering what to do (buy more or sell). I've also found that I have a tendency to get caught up in the "story" of a business or investment thesis. Once that happens, its so easy to forget the entire margin of safety/margin for error (whatever you want to call it) concept. I've also learned that if one of your objectives is simply to not lose any money, you think about things differently. Otherwise the gambling mindset is basically there is some fashion. Building a position gradually is also something I've learned to do. My mindset going into anything is that its virtually certain that it will decline in price after I take a position (that's just the way it goes). It's helped to keep dry powder. Those are just a few thoughts. Interesting thread. Kind of funny to see how many people make the same types of mistakes. Demonstrates the blind spots in the brain.

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/66321863.jpg I got a kick out of this one... ;D

I find this so interesting. Thought others may as well. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000497604 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/your-money/john-maynard-keyness-own-portfolio-not-too-dismal.html?_r=0 I love Buffett's final remark, "They [economists] don't make a lot of money buying and selling stocks but people who buy and sell stocks still listen to them."

A number of people ripped the WSJ's Carney in the comment section. Somewhat entertaining.

What is the best source of inflation data in the U.S.? Any suggestions here would be helpful. I haven't found the BLS site very easy to navigate and find what I'm looking for.

Wow. Talk about a downward spiral. I just read "The Frackers" in January which profiles McClendon among others. Unreal.

I would personally support a massive infrastructure stimulus. Unfortunately, I'm pessimistic it would happen until there is some massive calamity. The public is far too short-sited. I live in the Minneapolis area. Even after the I35 bridge collapsed, the state reportedly still has over 800 "structurally deficient" bridges, yet policy makers kick the can down the road every legislative session.

At a minimum just run a small retail footprint with appliance, home services, auto and maybe tools. Basically, only keep the stuff men would buy. Did anyone rip him a new on for sending them a big tax bill in connection with a shitty AR number? I agree. They did talk about the capital gains. Bruce basically said he does pay attention to taxes and noted that he had to pay his share because all of his liquid net worth is in the fund. Said he didn't want to sell losers to offset the gains and have to wait 31 days to buy them back (for fear the prices would go up). Also noted that his own mother fired him last year.

I'm hoping the cash drain stops because they finally start winding down the retail operation and sell the brands.

I guess SHLD is still a turn-around play. Ugh.... :-\ ::)

I don't post much on this thread because its hard to add anything intelligent beyond what all the regulars put out there. I've taken a small position because the legal arguments do seem sound. However, what's worried me from the beginning, and the reason I don't take on more exposure, is the politics involved. I'm sure these judges are just as scared as the politicians of a headline to the effect of, "hedge funds score big on xx ruling on Fannie/Freddie." Although this "should" have no relevance from a legal standpoint, its obviously at least one elephant in the room. On the flip side, it is interesting to see the various special interest groups calling for the release of the companies. Political pressure is coming from lots of different directions.

Stocks with "value" characteristics have without a doubt, been unfavorable in recent years. Frankly, the best general approach in recent years was to own the S&P500. But as is always the case, market sentiment will eventually change and go in another direction. Value investing is an approach that works over time, not every time.

I read The Frackers last month. It's been recommended by others. I would also highly recommend it. Non-technical. Reads more like a good story. You'll learn about the history of the oil industry and how wildcatters operate. Also a lot of good historical info on Continental, Cheniere, and Chesapeake.

GGG FDS BR

I think its important to also note that hedge funds tend to use leverage. My only point here is strategies that don't use leverage and outperform after fees really deserve credit.

Responding to the subject line, I personally don't care in an absolute sense. Just depends on what I'm looking for. For example, I've owned NLY for 6 or 7 years. I bought it for the dividend. But when I'm looking at stocks generally, I don't really care. I agree with Buffett; if operating cash can be reinvested at a high rate of return, why pay it out?

After seeing some of the depositions of the various litigation against Cohen, sac or former employees, I'm just not a fan of him. These guys regularly sought and traded on insider info.

Seems pretty clear that nothing is going to happen by way of Congress (with respect to reform or recap). Any action (by Congress or the admin) will be re-active to how the lawsuits are proceeding or forced by actual rulings. How long will it take is the big question.

Out of curiosity, is there any speculation as to the origins of the 3rd amendment? Reading the Fortune article, I just kept thinking, who actually came up with the idea for the net worth sweep? Seems unlikely to be a cabinet level official. Probably some underling at Treasury or someone working on the budget.

I think many people have considered a similar strategy as you're proposing (basically owning a basket of investment gurus). I would expect the portfolio to perform inline with the S&P over time, especially if you add more names. This is the classic problem with diversification. Every additional holding is likely to only bring your returns closer to the average (Howard Marks talks about this a lot). You're obviously hoping the "average" of the basket is higher than the market as a whole, but that is not a bet I would make with any substantial sum based on my own experience.

Jeffrey Gundlach bought NLY over the summer and discussed it publicly. http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2015/07/15/annaly-gets-boost-from-gundlach/. At the time he said he liked the company but didn't understand why they didn't buy back shares because the company trades at a significant discount to book. Not long after his comments, the company announced the board approved a share repurchase plan. I wonder how aggressive the firm has been in buying back shares? I've owned NLY for 5+ years. Bought at different prices.

It is interesting to watch all the dynamics of the energy markets play out. US production is finally declining, but other world players keep pumping. Below is an interesting article on how the Middle East states are being negatively impacted by low prices (massive budget deficits). I wouldn't be surprised if oil goes lower in the short-term, but it's extremely hard to see low prices persisting, say, 3 years out (unless that corresponds with a significant world economic slowdown). http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/27/news/economy/saudi-arabia-gas-subsidies-cheap-oil/index.html?iid=surge-grid-dom

It is possible that the employer pays the admin expenses. This is an option every employer has when they establish a 401k plan (though it isn't very common in my experience). The short answer to your question is the fees are simply netted from the fund returns, thus the participant never sees them directly. The 401k plan providers (Fidelity, Principal, John Hancock, etc.) have different levels of pricing on the same funds depending on the size of the plan. With small plans in particular (less than $1 million in assets), you'll actually find the opposite of what you described; the mutual fund expenses within the plan will be higher than what you would pay if you bought the fund at retail price. For these reasons, the fees/expenses never hit the statement and people believe they aren't paying anything. However, it is true that big 401k plans have much more favorable pricing because of economies of scale. If you and your wife only worked for fFrtune 500 companies for example, the expenses you paid were much more likely to be fair. But in the small plan market (businesses with less than 100 employees typically), the fees can be extremely high (and again, they are usually buried).

I would be willing to make a significant wager that the 401ks you and your wife participated in did in-fact charge significant fees that you never saw. Consumers (rightly so) have caused a big stir in recent years because they finally figured out that huge fees were being charged within 401k plans without any transparency. I'm in the business and have seen it first hand. Most 401k participants wrongly assume they pay no fees. But what is actually happening is the fees are being charged through a special share class or at the plan level. The "fee" never hits the participants statement but it is definitely there. The highest I've seen was a 2% wrap fee being charged to a group of fire fighters by one of the big brokerage firms. 1% was a lot more common up until the last 5 years. Fortunately for consumers, fee compression is occurring because of more awareness and competition. Additionally, new regulation has been gradually rolling out forcing plan providers to explicitly state what plan participants are paying on their individual statements (much to the chagrin of those in the financial services business).