Gmthebeau
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Posts posted by Gmthebeau
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6 hours ago, Castanza said:
China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage.
There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand.
Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years. I remember the first drug czar decades ago. The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved. Americans need to learn to stop using drugs. If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.
I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.
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2 hours ago, Castanza said:
My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever.
Russia invaded another country. There are consequences to that, same as if China does. ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China. Imagine if they don’t comply. There would be consequences from the US government. It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks. -
21 hours ago, Haryana said:
Hertz experience is irrelavant because those issues are mostly specific to rental business. They get renters inexperienced with EV over and over again.
Individual owner drivers also have more accidents in the first year but then they get a better hang of it and the accident rates drop after the first year.
Regardless, even bad publicity is good for Tesla as buyers have their own reasons to buy and they just have to reminded which media does for free.
I am just hoping Elon. can put enough lipstick on this pig this quarter to get it to rally to 240 a good place to short it. It is nowhere near its old high while everything else is at or above old highs so the market is telling you this thing is going lower.
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On 10/17/2023 at 5:53 AM, petec said:
Europe is not uninvestable, but you should treat it as an emerging market with more debt and less growth, in my view.
+1
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China is completely uninvestable in my opinion. Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now. I can't imagine how much he must have lost. It's a communist country. Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia. There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.
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I gave you the link to the whole Mongolian thing John, which you wanted to pretend like didn't exist and people just making this stuff up. Perhaps you should do some better strenuous work yourself. You seem lacking.
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Based on my calculations from his reported revenue of the newsletter he has somewhere around 180 subscribers taking the revenue divided by cost of subscription. 180. Lol ~ I shouldn’t laugh though because he appears to be making a lot of money off it even at 180ish subscribers.
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6 minutes ago, Santayana said:
Lol, some random guy on a random website makes claims that there is no other evidence for, and people should take it seriously.
you don’t have to believe anything it’s just information. You should invest in his fund before it closes.
The whole “ Mongolia” thing apparently traded on the Canadian exchange and was just wound down, I guess not a total loss just substantial.
“Mongolia has been part of my life for over a decade, and I always believed that we could somehow turn things around if we simply waited long enough for Mongolia’s economic fortunes to recover. Unfortunately, this recovery has never arrived, and it became apparent that the time had come to extract our remaining capital and engage it in more lucrative purposes”
https://www.mongoliagrowthgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-Q3-Shareholders-letter.pdf
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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Kuppy seems to have learned a few things along the way - he is more flexible and his risk management seems better.
Many great investors blew up -Ackman blew up twice with his Target vehicle and Gotham Partners, that didn’t prevent him from being successful later,
and I never disputed any of that I said he may have better risk management. No clue. Just filling pieces that seem to be missing for whatever reason. If everyone feels he is so great you should invest in his fund. Buying research of ideas, which as I understand are not recommendations, seems like a waste. Better to put your money directly with the source if you believe in him. -
1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:
Peace.
- But in my personal opinion - going forward here on CoBF, I think we all need to think about to be very specific [and careful] about very negative statements [here, in casu, such as yours, like "blown up multiple times" [you haven't posted even evidience here] and the likes], unless you can provide specific evidence and on a very specific level substanciate your findings, naturally according to what you're posting.
If you are expressing your personal opinions in writing here on CoBF, it's not a bad idea also just to write about the causes / basis you are opinionated about that particular matter, and your reason behind your why!
I just linked where some guy said he has blown up multiple times. He said he met him personally. If you don’t like it too bad. I will post as I see fit. I would suggest you mind your own business Please invest your money with him if you are a believer. If you are not willing to invest what does that say about you? -
6 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
Well @Gmthebeau,
Harris Kupperman is what he is, with his 'corner' at the Praetorian Capital website, his Twitter account, with among other things photos from his finca, and all that, 'finca' in Spanish simpy translates to English by 'property'.
Source[s] for the above?
like I said google search. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-life-and-times-of-harris-kupperman-praetorian2.210143/
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40 minutes ago, linus_md said:
Why don’t you simply buy SPY and save yourself the .7% fee?
because this fund also invests in bonds, mostly high yield. The returns are as good as SPY but less risk. At least historically they have been. SPY eventually becomes overweighted by market cap and mean reverts. It works out over long periods, but the returns are not as smooth. -
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Never heard of this guy, but a search on the internet seems to reveal he has totally blown up multiple times. Apparently does a top notch job scrubbing the internet of it too including wayback machines. Many small no name funds make up their results so unless you are personally invested in his fund I would take any claimed returns with a huge grain of salt. Perhaps he has learned from past blunders and improved his process though. A big red flag for me is that he sells research. Does Ackman sell his research? How about Drunkenmiller? Or Soros?
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19 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Why does Berkshire have 50% in AAPL at a PE of 30 on flat revenue growth for 2 years. Sorta crazy to me.
Great company but unless revenue growth reappears where do the stock gains come from in the next 10 years?
Apple is more financial engineering. Issue debt at low rates then buyback stock. The services business is growing well, but they are very dependent on iPhone upgrades and consumers may be slowing how often that occurs. Apple also has significant china risk, which is something everyone should consider with all investments as increasingly no matter who is President it’s likely we keep slowly decoupling from China. Apple is simply defensive to many in an expensive market. It’s the new Proctor & Gamble. People would rather own AAPL than PG if they have to own something -
34 minutes ago, ArminvanBuyout said:
In normal environment (i.e. ex-2021), market definitely underprices durability of growth + capital allocation, so when you think you've found a winner, better hold onto it...
this is exactly right. Compounding growth is rarely modeled or valued correctly by the market. For example, 20 years ago LVMH had a PE of 21 but warranted a PE of 160x based on the future growth. ASML had a PE of 45x but warranted a PE over 1000x. It’s all about figuring out who has the longest runway and biggest moats. NVDA looks cheap to many people. -
47 minutes ago, Haryana said:
I suspect this has been his subconscious plan from the get-go to go get'em all riled up.
He likely finally settles with some restructuring resulting a new Tesla ticker on exchange that gives him disproportionate voting power without as much economic interest.
By then he would have taken everyone for a ride for the umpteenth time.
He is known to operate Tesla without sales or marketing expenditure because he is good at getting that for free from the waiting to be inflamed mouths on radios.
Hertz gave him some free advertising when they said they were dumping a boatload of them because nobody wants to rent them.
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2 minutes ago, gfp said:
I mean, those kind of shenanigans sound like they would make it easier to beat an index fund. But I guess you said "most people" and most people aren't going to beat the S&P regardless of the opportunities these type of shenanigans regularly create.
Right because most people will get shaken out, then start chasing what is working right when the trend is about to change. They can't control their emotions.
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On 1/16/2024 at 4:24 PM, ValueArb said:
Matt Levine hit it out of the park today. I've already posted separately his thoughts on Grayscales post ETF decline, the game theory behind Elon's demand for more Tesla shares. This is more inside baseball but I found his discussion of how block trades work on wall street fascinating, and why the head of block trading at Morgan Stanley got a light slap on the wrist from the SEC for inside trading (sortof?) clients while Morgan Stanley got hit for a quarter billion in fines/restitution.
yea great write-up. There is a ton of manipulation that goes on which is why it is so hard for most people to beat an index fund. You can see it in stocks and ETFs that go sideways to down for months and months and months and months....then suddenly they ramp 30% in 2-3 weeks - for no reason. It wasn't that buyers suddenly poured in the doors. It was they got everyone who they thought would sell at lower prices to finally sell, and boom up it went.
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9 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
I've been hearing this for at least four years. I took my shot a couple years ago and my puts expired out of the money.
It was to early to short it when it had momentum and they were effectively the only player in the EV game. It was time to be long then. Circumstances are changed now. The fact that people has lost interest in shorting it shows the time is coming.
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1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:
Be careful shorting cults.......be doubly careful shorting cults where the founder/CEO has a history of saying anything to pump the stock (funding secured/FSD etc.)......not saying dont do it (I've done it myself and made $$$) but size it appropriately.
Better yet - the time to go after TSLA is if/when Musk is gone...and it gets a CEO who cares about his reputation and SEC disclosures/violations. Musk is above all that and remains IMO the greatest salesman of our age.
He is a total carnival barker. I made a killing on it riding the momentum up in 2020-2021. I briefly traded it for 25%ish gain last year. I have been waiting to short it. It is very weak as evidenced by the fact that it never approached its old high like MSFT, NVDA, and all the good companies. I was hoping it would rally back to 240s then short it. I think the time to short it is soon. EV market is weak in general, he is an unfocused mess desperate to grab cash while he can after blowing it on a twitter bender, Toyota has not even entered it yet. I expect TSLA to take a beatdown this year, and eventually when Toyota enters it will totally plunge. I think the cult is mostly gone. There are probably some who bought the top and still hoping to get back to even.
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I think it is probably one of the best shorts on the board. Once it starts trading like an auto maker, which is all it really is, it probably has downside to about $50.
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15 hours ago, ValueArb said:
I agree with much of what you wrote, but Elon is clearly the most important founder of Tesla (and there is a legal settlement with the "real" founders giving him the right to the title "founder"). He was the only person willing to give the original two founders seed funding, hired its most important employee (JB Straubel, the CTO), and Tesla was only able to raise further funding because Elon lead every round. Most importantly, he was always heavily involved. He helped design the Roadster, and when the original CEO came up with a production plan for the Roadster that would have cost $250k/unit Elon fired him and took over, and saved the company by lowering those costs enough to price it at $80k. And then he led development of the Model S, which is really why Tesla became so valuable.
That said, I agree he doesn't deserve any more stock, it's questionable whether he's still critical to their success, and he's heavily distracted with other projects and social media jihads.
I do think he was really valuable in the early days as you pointed out, but I am not sure he adds much/any value these days. He seems pre-occupied with twitter and his political beliefs. I think at this point he probably has turned off a lot of people who would never buy a Tesla with him there. They certainly have a big lead, but I suspect with all his associated nonsense he will squander the entire thing slowly then all at once.
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8 minutes ago, dealraker said:
Very interesting comment. So you think a buy with the IQ and brilliance of Munger is supposed to sit around being happy? I live with two somewhat people (my wife and one of many nephews) who are very fulfilled but "happy" isn't one of their dominating moods...maybe somewhat affect by one of them having a 160 IQ. Ever heard about Charlie's lakehouses at Star Island? There are thee of them and I do believe Mr. Munger physically built a lot of it all.
I dont know if a house was the answer and no I have no idea what lakehouses he had or care. I was simply commenting on the fact that he did not seem happy at all. He was very smart for sure I didn't say he wasn't. Yes, I do think his goal should be to be happy. If you walk around miserable all the time what is the point of life. I am pretty sure Buffett strives to be happy. Maybe Munger was, but he sure never came across that way.
China
in General Discussion
Posted
Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.