Gmthebeau
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Posts posted by Gmthebeau
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The average US investor has no ability to analyze China. Have you traveled there? Hit the ground talking to people, companies, etc? China is notorious for lying, fraud, fake accounting, entire companies that are total frauds. If you are hellbent on investing in China at least hire a fund manager who lives there or Hong Kong. Otherwise, stop wasting your time and money on this garbage.
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It’s odd so many people feel like American dream is dead. I feel like American work ethic is what’s dead in so many people. Too many people want something for nothing. You actually have to take responsibility for your life, educate yourself, work hard. It’s not any difference than it ever was. They just started giving trophies in school for participating and people were taught incorrectly to just get a handout. A staggering number of Americans are on disability not cuz they can’t work but because they don’t want to. Yet daily we see people lining up to buy the newest iPhones or $3500 Apple vision pro thing. Americans are the fattest people on the face of the earth, but we need food banks?!?!?
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Started watching the white lotus on MAX, I like it.
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1 hour ago, oscarazocar said:
I recently came across the Tsai Capital 2023 Q4 letter on Reddit, turns out that the manger, Chris Tsai, is the son of one of the 1960's Go-Go investing OG's, Gerry Tsai.
https://tsaicapital.com/files/Tsai-Capital-Annual-Investor-Letter-2023.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/magazine/28wwln-tsai-t.html
Momentum strategies work, but like everything, they don't work all the time. They work best coming out of a bear market when things are cheap and you can get a multi-year run. The key is you have to hop off the train when valuation of the entire market becomes extreme such as 2021. We had a small bear market in 2022 and these types of strategies ramped back up a bit but the market never really got cheap. It really only got to fair value in 2022, so we are back at overvalued today. Its unlikely any momentum strategies will perform well from todays valuation.
A lot of these guys call themselves value investors but they aren't.
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8 minutes ago, gfp said:
No way!
LOL
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Twitter is mostly just a cesspool of macro or expert trader clowns looking to fleece you. They all have newsletters, private feeds, signal services, and assorted other garbage to sell you. More time and money is wasted on that trash. I deleted twitter a couple years ago. There is nothing on there worth reading. I can assure you Buffett doesn't read twitter. He is reading company reports, WSJ, Financial Times, stuff like that. As a general rule, if someone does not have a professionally audited track record (nobody on twitter trying to sell you something does) you should not be wasting your time reading it.
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1 hour ago, valueventures said:
Elliott going after ETSY now. Thoughts?
Elliott is a very smart operator, but simply chasing what he has already bought seems like a risky venture since the stock has already moved. Etsy looks overvalued to me, but of course pops on the announcement. He may be selling into this for all we know. Follow his holdings and paper trade it, or use real money, and see how it works.
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20 minutes ago, Hektor said:
Thanks @Gmthebeau. Could the lack of existing home also be driving the demand for new homes?
Yes, I think having a shortage of existing homes for sale would increase demand for new homes. This will probably continue as well. Unless unemployment rises a lot, which is very unlikely, these trends will continue.
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8 hours ago, gfp said:
Just to make sure I have this right, the approximate market cap of this company is something like $314m USD ?
Yes, thats what I am seeing. The article I linked says they are owed $150 from prior oil sales. No debt. Still profitable without the pipeline so far. If pipeline reopens anytime soon they should see a massive profit increase.
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15 minutes ago, TorontoChaosTheatre said:
Hello everyone,
First of all, I am very grateful for the many thoughtful responses and thank you for helping an undergraduate out with how to buy their first ownership stake in a business! I was able to open an account on interactive brokers, and it trades there (I double-checked, and I made an error believing it was harder to trade than it was).
I wish my thesis were more in-depth. I only started taking accounting classes recently, and from my poor reading and analysis, it is cheap. I have no catalyst or unique analysis indicating why it will cease to be cheap. Only if it has no debt is it hard to go bankrupt. I am also slowly making my way through the footnotes and also need to finish reading the proxy (THIS LEGALESE LANGUAGE IS DENSE, and I am sorta lost, to be frank).
My pre-mortem for what could go wrong is that local demand falters.
It's high uncertainty and low risk as long as they are profitable. I am publicly committing to selling if that situation changes.
Sorry about saying what you said was a question (that's right, it was a statement), and thank you so much for helping me out here with that link.
It is intellectually stimulating. I started rereading Peter Cundill's bio (I am ashamed I forgot about many of the situations). Some of the international situations are epic. But I am sure they were not as clear-cut bargains as they seem in hindsight. Does anyone know where to buy those 1840s unpaid Mississippi bonds?
Thank you for the article.
Happy Bargain Hunting!
-TorontoChaosTheatre
I took a position in it today from the OTC pink sheets. I’ll possibly buy more on LSE if I decide to increase position. It’s super cheap. The catalyst would be the pipeline reopening. -
5 minutes ago, brobro777 said:
Yea bank bonuses are good but real deal are the credit card bonuses. I remember years ago cashing out a ton of Amex MR points via Charles Schwab at 1.25 cents per point. And no taxes to pay unlike bank bonuses! That was pretty good haha
im way to lazy to mess with shifting zero balance offers etc. way to much work for me. I use to do the credit card bonus game a lot and agree that’s probably more lucrative and way easier. I have not even done that for a few years even though my mailbox is stuffed with offers every single day -
1 hour ago, Hektor said:
Are the existing home sales falling because some of the owners are happy to sit on a low apr mortgage?
yes. Low inventory why sell if you have a sub 3% rate. Homes sell very quickly when listed. This will go on for many many years. Prices will just go mostly up. -
According to this article they are owed $150 million. No doubt it's very cheap. Lots of political risk though. I would rather buy this than all that Chinese crap people buying.
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Interactive Brokers usually has access to nearly anything. I have bought really obscure stuff in really obscure countries. Sometimes their platform is strange so you might just want to call them and tell them what you are trying to buy (assuming you have an account there).
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The average stock has not really done that well, so the market has noticed. If you mean when will the S&P500 come crashing down well that would be when/if MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META project a slowing in their businesses. So far, we have not seen it. AAPL looks the most expensive with their China risk especially.
As far as housing that is not going to crash. Multiple bids on stuff where I live, sells right away.
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2 hours ago, ICUMD said:
Thanks for the above posts.
I certainly understand the rebalancing and exposure rationale for indexing.
For discussion, I note the PE ratio of the S&P 500 to be averaging around 25. The tech sector is arguably loftily valued currently and the index is heavily weighted in this sector. PE of 25 doesn't seem like a value proposition currently.
As a value investor, how does one seek value in an ETF? Or do you just average in?
If you are concerned about the extreme concentration at the top of the S&P 500, and PE of them, you could consider Pacer Cash Cows (COWZ) ETF, which has beaten the S&P since it launched in 2017 - pretty impressive really considering how well the S&P 500 has done. It selects Top 100 companies based on free cash flow yield.
https://www.paceretfs.com/products/COWZ
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40 minutes ago, LearningMachine said:
How long before it starts to show up in profits of more companies, and Mr. Market starts to notice?
I think Mr Market has already noticed. Take out the Top 7 stocks and the S&P was up like 12% last year not 26%. Profits were down like 11% last year without them. UPS just said they will cut 12,000 jobs because after giving them a raise it cuts into profits to much.
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Interesting video from WSJ about China and their Taiwan ambitions.
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1 hour ago, coc said:
Kuppy blew up on junior gold miners in Canada. It wasn't like Munger where his Blue Chip (now BRK) got marked down in a massive bear market for small caps (-80%) and then became a legendarily good investment for the next 50 years. The money was gone at Praetorian.
Then the MGG blowup.
He's doing better now clearly.
There are so many mining scams in Canada and around the world. I remember a good friend of mine getting sucked into Cal-graphite decades ago, which was a Canadian mining company that was going to rule the graphite industry. I figure it's about time for that scam to come back around soon since most people have forgotten about it.
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15 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:
Lol, only 1 contract for fun. Just rolled down the short $50 call to the $40 strike for extra credit. Now only $5.50 net cost. Can I get $5.50 out of 3 more weeks of the $40 strike? Maybe. I probably should not clutter up the board with this stuff.
I need to take a look at this piece of crap. I have totally ignored it. Looks like it went vertical and is essentially worth nothing.
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5 minutes ago, Castanza said:
That's not correct. OFAC is the main problem for US investors. Other countries have similar issues.
More can be read about it on the Sberbank thread.
I believe MSCI came out before the ban and said Russia was uninvestable and removed them from their indexes. I think people investing in China need to be aware if China fires off a rocket while the stock market is closed they may end up not being able to sell their China stocks either. In my opinion, it is just best to avoid countries that are not US allies. The entire China VIE structure basically means you don't own anything other than a piece of paper anyway.
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1 minute ago, Luca said:
Id expect from my government that they dont destroy my equity I own in other countries. Sanctions never helped, all it did drive Russia further away, permanent resource loss for Europe that desperately depended on them, right into the arms of china that used the opportunity perfectly.
I have not tracked all the issues with this because I would have never invested in Russia to begin with, but I thought besides the US blocking these, the Russians passed a law saying ownership had to be by Russians? Is that not correct?
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The federal government is not your risk manager. Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on. Buyer beware.
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I fail to see why anyone would buy Chinese equities. There have been talks to blocking them in the past. China is clearly not a US friend. The US Government Thrift Savings Plan (401k for government employees) have changed their international tracking index to remove Chinese equities. The writing is on the wall, if you fail to listen you have nobody to blame but yourself when it goes bad.
This ARKK Just Won't Float!
in General Discussion
Posted
I read somewhere she had sold Palantir recently, then turned around and bought it back after if gapped up 30%. It's almost like they do drugs there.