cameronfen

Yea just because AI is for real, doesn't mean there aren't a lot of grifters selling vaporware.

Do you code? Have you tried Code Interpreter? GPT-4 Code Interpreter is good as a junior software engineer but is able to generate code faster than any human. Alpha Fold is a big improvement in protein folding which has huge implications for biotech, not to mention other older techniques that are adopted by companies like Schrodinger. Self-driving cars are progressing slowly but will get there. Medical diagnosis via computer vision is a relatively import field too, but more niche than these other applications. The improving classical statistical modeling has already changed how 50+% of businesses work. Without machine learning, there is no need for many data scientists, data engineers, business analysts.

Yea I can believe this alameda not withstanding. Most of the market participants are noise traders.

You can start by looking at recent asset pricing and accounting papers. Even though it's public knowledge, some of the most recent stuff hasn't been factored into quant funds. A lot of people are probably doing this, but mess around with large language models. I also have an idea of how to use options chains to forecast future prices like black scholes. I don't particularly want to share it publicly, but if you DM me, we can talk about it if that's something you want to explore.

Geoff Hinton is one of the most ethical celebrities (if he can be called that) that I know. To protest US military funding for AI, he moved from CMU (the center of ML research) to the University of Toronto (a no-name school in ML at the time). Ethically I respect his convictions.

Well, all you need to do is copy the GPT-3 model both the neural network architecture and the weights and install it in an on-prem GPU. I couldn't find the number for GPT-4, but you can fine-tune and run a GPT-3 model on as few as 1 NVIDIA A100 GPUs: https://blogs.oracle.com/research/post/oracle-first-to-finetune-gpt3-sized-ai-models-with-nvidia-a100-gpu#:~:text=Achieving GPT3 finetuning with as,3.9 tokens%2Fsec%2FGPU. So openAI will train their model, give you the weights of the model to be used over 2 or 3 A100 GPUs, and whenever a developer needs some code completion, you run the on-prem GPT, which is no longer being trained but also OpenAI has no access to. Every year when OpenAI comes out with a new model, the on-prem version gets updated. Fine-tuning on custom data is doable, but is probably not necessary for models that are able to do writing completion or code completion. From the text, there are other startups that can run GPT-3 scale inference on as few as 8 A100s:

Yea, this magic quadrant is ridiculous. How do you put Clarifai, and H20.ai in the same discussion as Google. There are 1000s of AI and machine learning firms that have more market power and broader vision than those two firms.

I mean the easy solution is an on premises version. Someone has to be working on that. Seems like low-hanging fruit.

I think investment in the stock clouded people's judgement. You could argue logically for either side, but ask most well educated non-financially involved person who did a little research and this is likely what they would say: Fannie and Freddie were going bankrupt in 2008. Investors would have lost everything. Government bailed them out. Looked like government would never recoup all their investment so they initiated a profit sweep taking all profits from Fannie and Freddie. I think most people would question 1. why can't the government ever make a profit when they invest? 2. Why does the government always have to act like a put for investors, isn't that anti-free market in its own right? 3. It just doesn't seem fair for the government to renege on a contract that makes billionaires wealthy. For the people that said government compelled Fannie and Freddie, 1. Government is entitled to their money back especially considering these firms would have gone bankrupt 2. this bruhaha didn't become a huge deal until it was obvious Fannie and Freddie would be enormously profitable. I imagine this emotional argument (which I'm very partial too if you read my occasional earlier posts here) influenced justices as well, but not sure. I was long the preferred for a short time, but was honest to myself that this was a trade that was somewhat taking advantage of the political weaknesses of the US government. I feel like people's investment have clouded their judgement and how bad the optics would be. Just thinking of this thread, it became impossible in this thread to offer a dissenting opinion, because people would accuse you of not knowing anything (which is definitely a little true, but I'm not going long so I'm not going to do your DD for you) or being contrarian for it's own sake rather than engaging in thoughtful discussion.

I am interested in TOI, but wonder if you notice this section in page 14 of the prospectus which mentions a EUR$200M drawdown of the credit facility prior to the completion of spin-off? Maybe I understood it wrong, but that would make the EV even higher than implied in the 2020Q3 financials. 38x EV/LTM FCF @$59 share price. I did not notice that. What is your FCF number at LTM? I think their Dec 2019 quarter FCF is relatively anemic, I get around 32x FCF after adjusting for the debt and doing LTM (net debt, preferred, and the dividend you mentioned). The number I get is 27x when I do 9 months CF annualized. But maybe I did something wrong.

Topicus Although it’s likely going lower in the short term seems like a pretty good deal.

If this is true turns out I used to run cross country against u/deepfuckingvalue: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10407357&fbclid=IwAR2bfPLb3Y5-thMpjKE5MVGdfnjMStRCMBaNMI_RB3WbFR37e6KdVQdj9yI

At some point aren’t the people pumping stocks on WSB just as guilty of market manipulation as any sleezy penny stock promoter. I don’t care I’m not going to go long or short either way (ok maybe I’ll sell puts on AMC but...), but at some point there will be more than enough evidence to accuse the really well followed redditors on WSB that do this repeatedly of market manipulation?

Good points. However, with the size of his investment it is doubtful there was enough volume to keep trading it. Also, Paulson per his prior investments (housing) is not afraid to stick it out. Good luck to all There is $16mm in ADV across the 2 most liquid preferreds (FNMAS and FMCKJ) before accounting for any of the other series. Over the course of 4 years, wouldn't be too difficult to make some $. Again - I have no idea and certainly not trying to accuse. I'm just starting to do a post-mortem on alternative explanations so I can at least learn something here. Ex-ante I think a lot of the "Mnuchin won't act" were surface level opinions that may prove to be correct, but never thought through specific incentives like the one I mentioned above. Right for the wrong reasons. But all that matters in this game is the result. For what it’s worth for your post mortem I think SM was probably on track to sign the amendment until the riots. But that’s just opinion.

Hindsight is 20/20 but looking back what Gasparino is suggesting will happen should have been the obvious baseline that didn’t cross my mind. Something somewhat symbolic but without a whole lot of bite. SM tells his banker friends he tried and he and the rest of administration don’t get pilloried by the press. Let’s see what happens.

Really? Anyone? You project, cameron. Why would someone who previously believed the media was biased, for example, now believe the media claim he incited a coup? (Especially when they can read the transcript themselves?) Look, I don't know what Mnunchin will do. He might distance himself from Trump as you suggest. But people tend to double-down when they feel wronged. I just think that's more likely. I feel like at this point I am having a pointless conversation. Let’s just wait until the 20th and rehash this then.

Sure the back an forth is definitely getting old. But I feel like I should defend myself after you claiming I am making something up. As far as preventing trump from executing his duties by his admin, plenty of articles say this. Here is one: https://www.cbs58.com/news/isolate-the-president-local-expert-discusses-impact-of-cabinet-trump-administration-resignations Here is another: And a reference to the counsel advising no contact with Trump: https://www.google.com/amp/s/abovethelaw.com/2021/01/white-house-counsels-legal-advice-stay-away-from-trump/amp/ Edit: removed a slightly incendiary comment.

You keep implying that Trump is all of a sudden going to be a respectful, honorable guy in the last 10 days. Not going to happen. When has he ever cared about what his detractors think? You really think he's not going to pardon anyone now because some people won't like it? Lol, I expect a pardon Pez dispenser in the coming days. If anything, Trump's history implies he is willing to be even more aggressive in offending his opponents right now. I don't think the GSE's is going to rile up anyone, though. And, believe it or not, the WH has continued to put out executive actions since the 6th (see https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/). I don't know if there's any controversy with these, but your assumption that everyone has just stopped working appears to be false. It has nothing to do with whether trump is a better person, but literally everything to do with the fact that this time he has gone to far for anyone to listen to now. When I say trump admin and republicans, I really mean the bureaucrats and his administration that are probably doing what is best for republicans and Trump. No one cares what he thinks now and he is effectively President in name only. If you look at the executive actions that you mentioned none of them have any substance, like pardoning controversial people, changing policy. It seems like they just have to deal with who reports to who, likely because 25+ high ranking officials resigned and people can’t be nominated. If he does decide to pardon controversial people yea I agree that would be somewhat a negative for my thesis, but he hasn’t yet, because he’s not in control anymore. Edits: added admin after Trump.

Seems fair. I think reasonable people can disagree. I just get pissed when people start attacking me or the other bears personally etc. I don’t have anything short. I actually want you all to make money, doesn’t matter to me. But I want to share my thoughts in an area where I thought I was as qualified as the others on the thread to handicap considering how many people had views that I didn’t think take into consideration what happened on Wednesday. I won’t go point by point as there are lots of things I don’t have anything to add: 1) re legislation. Yeah I should have used another word. I didn’t actually mean something that comes from Congress. Rather I meant that the executive branch likely won’t make any policy moves especially ones that are likely to be controversial. Why? Trump just incited a crowd to storm Congress, take and kill politicians, unless the election was overturned. If the press catches even a whiff of undermining the Biden administration, you can bet there will be stories that eviscerate his administration. Note you can test my hypothesis. If trump admin starts putting out executive actions or pardons or bureaucratic changes now (after the storming of the capitol), maybe I’m wrong. Otherwise put more weight on me being right. 2.) re executive actions. It’s true that Trump has been putting out EAs these past two months, but my point is after the capitol riots, they cannot behave in the same way as previous administrations have. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m guessing no big policy changes have happened since the capitol from the T admin. 3.) I didn’t mention this so much earlier, but do you think anyone is paying to FNMA right now in the administration (other than people who aren’t paid to worry about anything but that)? Trump is facing impeachment, 25 amendment etc etc. any shot the political appointees had at reasonable next jobs probably went down the drain. Trump is in a rage and might just burn down the country. Benghazi took years of investigation. This is way more serious than Benghazi and it was not just due to administration incompetence, but actually invited by the executive. WH counsel is telling staff to not communicate with trump to shield them from future legal liability due to this event. Do you think anyone cares about the stockholders of FNMA right now? Maybe SM has some friends and owes them something. You better hope they are really close friends who has saved his life or something. Bc SM didn’t cancel his Africa trip for FNMA, he canceled his trip because a coup occurred in Washington incited by his boss.

Just so everyone doesn’t think I’m a hater, this seems like a reasonable counter argument at first glance although again I haven’t done any work on the stock. I just think people saying that the chance is still greater than 50/50 because SM said he would do it before the coup happened aren’t updating their beliefs correctly. Lots of people are saying/implying this, but can someone clarify WHY they think Mnuchin would choose not to sign a PSPA agreement based on what Trump did this week? I accept that there might be a reason, but I'm not sure what it would be. Mnuchin's job ends in 11 days, he's fabulously wealthy, and it's unclear if he has any interest in running for any office in the future, so I honestly see ZERO concern that he would have if a few Democrats don't like what he does - they were never going to like it anyway. A large number of Americans including many republicans consider that coup just occurred incited by president Trump. Trump has lost legitimacy as president even by many in his own party as evidenced by the many resignations. While I agree it doesn’t really effect SM monetarily, passing controversial legislation at this point in time persona non grata for the foreseeable future. If you don’t buy that, consider what the repercussions for Trump and the GOP. Trump incites the coup. When it’s contained instead of doing nothing, which is the best he can do, he passes this controversial legislation which is counter to Biden’s agenda. You know how many people on both the left and the right would pummel the republicans and Trump for having no shame and continuing to undermine the Biden administration even after trying to stage a coup? Is it possible, yeah. Is it likely after what happened this week, probably not. Edits (additional thoughts): Also priority number 1 (as well as 2,3,4...) is to ensure a smooth transition to Biden’s presidency. I would imagine this falls down on the list of priorities, considering how far behind they are in transitioning, given the new additional spotlight on making sure this is smooth.

Just so everyone doesn’t think I’m a hater, this seems like a reasonable counter argument at first glance although again I haven’t done any work on the stock. I just think people saying that the chance is still greater than 50/50 because SM said he would do it before the coup happened aren’t updating their beliefs correctly.

And yet people that commented after you are still saying a high likelihood that SM does something.

GPW.PL AIV ENT.GB CTA.ZA ASPU DESP TWTR WINE.GB TIGO BUR.GB BGCP BABA SUM.NZ 215.HK CLV.AUX LIC.AUX OBL.AUX P34.SG MCO YUMC SIS.CA BOLSA_A.MX WB FB IAC GOOG NKL.CA UPLD INS ITRN SSPK JMIA I would say a lot of positions are just trackers (under 1ish %), JMIA, SSPK, INS, WB, YUMC, 215.HK, TWTR, WINE.GB. Quite a few are small positions(1-4ish%) : UPLD, NKL, GOOG, BOLSA_A.MX, YUMC, MCO, CLV.AUX, BABA, AIV, ASPU, DESP, TIGO, P35.SG, IAC, ENT.GB. The rest are largish positions 4-10% with LIC.AUX and OBL.AUX and CTA.ZA being the largest. Both LIC and CTA basically became large positions because of appreciation which is how I want my large positions to come into being. ENT.GB was a relatively large position but with the recent buyout news I sold it down because, even though I think there will be a higher bid, I don't really have any expertise in merger arbitrage. I have a large number of stocks. Probably not optimal, but there are a lot of things I like and I don't really like going overweight one stock for risk management purposes. I would rather overweight similar themes of which I have quite a few. Thanks to everyone that has suggested ideas, of which I have stolen a good number.

Maybe you are misunderstanding, again I don’t know the intricacies of this case, but I was responding to the conversation about handicapping admin reform from SM over the next 14 days which was being discussed right before I posted. our posts were simultaneous, I really wasn't responding to you. if this investment were just a roulette spin, then I would have less objection to the commentary that assumes it is Oh ok my fault.

Maybe you are misunderstanding, again I don’t know the intricacies of this case, but I was responding to the conversation about handicapping admin reform from SM over the next 14 days which was being discussed right before I posted.