cameronfen

You are right it's looking more like a dud based on what has come out the last couple of days but there have been some replications that demonstrate partial success, Superconducting at 110K and ambient pressure. See Wikipedia's list of replications. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99

Yea for sure. I think most physicists agree with that. It’s looking more likely than not that this is not a room temperature superconductor, but I think it seems like scientists are optimistic that this paper is not junk and pushes the frontier closer towards that goal.

3i a London-based P/E firm owns Action the DG of Europe. Action has no dollar store competition or even much mass-market competition like Walmart or Costco. Action is 60% of NAV and market cap. Growing revenue at 33% (22% same-store sales), income maybe 60%. I'll post a write-up at some point. The thread is here though atm:

As I’m sure you know, if you have robust enough growth this could change the fair value multiple.

From the wikipedia page of LK99, you do have two replication attempts that have been successful at replicating some aspects of superconductivity. One at temperatures of below 110 Kelvin and then a sharp drop in resistance at 230-250K (as mentioned above) and one replication showing diagmagentism, but no word on resistance yet. Two other labs show null results but this might not be surprising considering the success rate of the original LK99 paper was only 10%. It's crazy all the labs are in China and India. Maybe that's where the world is heading.

The material is actually pretty easy to make somewhat poorly, but the replications done seem somewhat promising. But I agree that to make these things at the purity and quality that is necessary for mass production is difficult. I think the LK99 paper even stated that they could only get superconducting on 10% of the samples they made. I don't think it will take years to reproduce the findings though. After all the betting markets contract for a no success is if no one can reproduce by 12/31/2023. So I imagine the experts consider that reproduction shouldn't take close to that long. It seems like you know the physics details better than me, but my guess is the simulations weren't as heavy handed as your friend. a) because they don't have an interest in the result either way and b)because they probably have better skills and familiarity with this field that only comes with many years of research.

Andrew was quick to point out, other superconductors also work at 110K but not at atmospheric pressure iirc. Not a scientist.

Here is a tweet from someone who knows way more than me that there is something here:

Replications are already in progress and some are complete see the Wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99 Most of the experimental results have not replicated but theoretical replications indicate good properties.

This seems like the moderate position. I don't know if it is correct: It is a superconductor at atmospheric pressure and temperatures a good deal higher than current records, but not at room temperature yet. Lots of opportunities for further analysis in related compounds. (maybe this is the wrong tweet, will try to find the right one).

Renewables should be good before someone developed fusion with the help of superconductors. I own some Infratil.nz which is long a good deal of renewables (although I was long before any of this stuff came out)

I’m sure there are but I don’t know enough to confidently say something like AMSC that’s popular with the retail crowd will win or lose. ATKR seems reasonable though.

what do you mean?

Ha, its your billionaire origin story.

Yea, I looked at Sun Communities. Trailer parks have really good economics, as you have a captive customer where you can just raise rents over time. There also is the role up angle too as the business used to be quite fragmented as once in a while you can buy trailer parks from mom-and-pop owners for good prices. However, a lot of that has played out. It's very hard to build trailer parks in the US as municipalities don't like them. I bought some LIC.ASX and INA.ASX. They are the Australian trailer parks (actually LIC.ASX is going more into retirement communities) much earlier in the development cycle, with more land to build properties and more room for pricing power. SUI has invested in INA.ASX. The problem is Australia's real estate looks shaky. You can find information about the industry from podcasts: https://open.spotify.com/show/39m7rwaGmGyAfTfPtjwlh7 and related shows. Looked at this a while ago so I forget, why do you think SUI is mismanaged? Obviously haven't done as well as ELS.