Peregrine

The prior article on the suicides suggested that lifting the lockdown will reduce the suicide rate. Those new articles you offer are suggesting that COVID-19 is scaring them from coming in to the hospital or clinic, which were never locked down for heart attack and stroke patients. They will vaccinate your children. Lifting a lockdown may scare these people even more if it led to an increase in the numbers of people infected with COVID-19. If a major part of the rationale for a lockdown was its practicality, then I think that public health officials were very impractical in not sufficiently considering the second order effects from the lockdown. Yes, emergency care was never stopped but how many people would really know that? Can you expect the vast majority to distinguish between what's considered an emergency and what's not? Can you expect the majority to properly weigh health risks and think rationally when everywhere they look they're reminded of COVID? I think the answer is a clear no given the data in the articles and I think it's a leap too far to assume that the majority of the populace will make rational decisions when the public health messaging on this topic has been ambiguous at best yet extremely black and white on lockdowns.

The article is based on one doctor's testimonial. There's no data at all. One person squashed by a UFO landing on his head would also be 'unprecedented'. What kind of numbers are we talking about here? Prior to COVID-19, there were more auto-accident fatalities than suicides in the US. I imagine that relationship has flipped and will revert when things open up again. I wouldn't be surprised if the experience in that one hospital is fairly consistent in a lot of other places. And it's not just suicides, but there's been growing evidence of collateral damage in a lot of other areas in public health. Here are a few other examples: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/18/nation/major-boston-hospital-finds-dramatic-drop-stroke-heart-attack-cancer-patients-during-coronavirus-pandemic/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/who-routine-childhood-vaccinations-disrupted-coronavirus/?utm_content=buffer1f412&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?

I hate Trump in that intentionally or unintentionally he has politicized everything. Even discourse on the coronavirus has devolved along strict partisan lines. Makes discussing policy with a balanced and objective mindset basically impossible. If you even question the rationale about the lockdowns, you're immediately called a Trump-lover by many on the left - even if you yourself identify more with the left.

One thing that doesn't get much mention about Berkshire's massive cash hoard is the fact that they have a massive reinsurance operation. Who knows the kind of claims that come out of this pandemic and Berkshire's first obligation above all is to ensure that they have the capital to withstand even the most dire of scenarios. That the market as a whole isn't cheap? I think most of us can agree on that. The spike down was swift and didn't stay there long.

He compares Berkshire's stock with all the other opportunities out there, so not surprised that he hasn't bought back stock meaningfully. As for the virus, it seems to me that he's a lot more apprehensive about people's reaction to the virus than the virus itself.

What does the demographic distribution of Singapore's confirmed cases look like?

The thing about Sweden...they readily admitted that their death count per capita will be higher than Scandinavian neighbors as a result of their strategy because of a higher rate of infections. But they're also going to see a steeper rise and steeper drop off (like NYC is now). Hard to come to firm conclusions that their deaths per capita will be far worse than their neighbors when it's all said and done. Sweden also has more large nursing homes than other Scandinavian countries and higher population density in its major city, which will figure into the stats as well.

It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries." The same epidemiologist said in another interview that compared to their neighbors Sweden has a lot more old people living in nursing homes, which have been locked down but nonetheless seem to be petri dishes for the virus to spread. And I think well more than half of COVID-related deaths in Sweden so far have come from nursing homes.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-us-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX Incredible how transmissible this virus is. In one prison, 2028 out of a total of 2,300 tested positive for the virus and close to 95% of those who tested positive had no symptoms.

Very limited liquidity for the May contract as far as I'm aware.

Not sure how worldometer counts. This is from Sweden's own public health website: COVID ICU admissions: COVID daily deaths:

I don't know the mechanics of how/why, but warm weather seems true (when it's been questioned whether it will be so) and 'viral dose' seems to matter. Healthcare workers are getting disproportionately sick and they might be skewing bad outcomes in younger brackets. That would certainly be encouraging for the broader population (that it's not as bad, to your points on what you see). I don't know. We'll see what data shows. HC worker data is from CDC. I'll dig up the article later. Warm and humid weather has been shown to wear off the fatty layer of other viruses, making it more difficult to attach to cells and transmit.

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense. "Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that" To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place. The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

I don't get why people think his comments are such a contradiction. Berkshire emerged from 08 with a ton of liquidity as well. Yes, Munger plunged a lot of excess cash into stocks at the Daily Journal in 09, but that's not a vast conglomerate with massive insurance operations.

Still mind-boggling how off some of these models were.

From what I recall, he used some margin as well.

Really useful information from a U.S. expat in China and dispelled some of the false notions I had myself about wet markets:

Some of the tidbits in the article are mind-boggling. The CT scans did 200+ a DAY whereas over here we'd be lucky to see 10 a day. China's ability to carry out a wide coordinated move at scale with insane speed and efficiency is unmatched.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds. Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined. Are you from China? Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”? Have you seen the videos of the hospitals? They are overrun. They probably don’t have enough tests and telling people to go home and stay inside is a decent way to contain something. Basically house arrest. They’re full of people full of panic. Wuhan has 11 million people, just imagine what would happen once you quarantine the city and everyone’s scared shitless. Of course they’d rush to the hospital whether they have symptoms or not.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds. Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined. Are you from China? Have relatives. If China is capable of completely shutting down 15 cities, enclosing off-boarding passengers suspected of being infected in boxes, and building a 1000-bed hospital in six days you think they’d test someone, find out they’ve been inflicted and just say “you should go home and come back another day when there’s space”?

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds. Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

What are the circumstances behind this example? Because no bank or federally regulated financial institution, not to mention credit union, will underwrite a $700k mortgage for a guy making $30k as a barber regardless if he's using it largely as a rental. And if $4,300 is his payment and assuming a 35-year amortization, his interest rate is 6.7% which is private lender territory.