Peregrine

Re: "biting the hands that feed them" It can be argued that the US has become a lot more antagonist toward China on trade than vice versa with the anti-trade rhetoric, barriers, tariffs and what not. Re: "US would do just fine" I'm not sure you understand just how integrated China is with the world economy right now. Re: would China prosper if everyone arms up? Hell no. And neither would anyone else. Re: US as the police dog of the world That's precisely the reason why many are against the US.

China is the second largest economy by US-denominated GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity and got there from subsistence agriculture in less than 50 years, so I wouldn't be so quick to write them off. In any case, it is inextricably tied to the global economy and will become even more so as its economy grows. But agreed that they have a lot of issues. On your broader point about picking and choosing sides: if the world goes back to the hegemonic ways of the Cold War it will ensure economic devastation. This is not something that I think we should be inviting.

A bit stunning that so many think that war/invasion is inevitable. Russia is dealing from a position of economic weakness. China isn't. Even Putin doesn't think that China needs to use force.

Can you send a link corroborating this? If this is indeed the case, I hope that this leads to peace negotiations soon.

You seem to be very confident in saying "very wrong with your assessment" while at the same time saying "it is impossible to know right now".

Lol what? I never once said that what Taiwanese want don't matter or that shorting Taiwanese stocks is a good idea. I'm all for democratic norms and have hope that the entire world will trend in that direction over time. This has nothing to do what what you or I or anyone else wants. This has to do with what's likely to happen. Learn to read.

If you think that China would have ever allowed Hong Kong to elect a chief executive who was not aligned with Beijing, then you are gravely mistaken. All 4 chief executives since the hand-over were pro-Beijing and vetted by the CCP.

The 2019 protests began because of an extradition bill which would allow China to detain and extradite alleged criminals from Hong Kong. The bill was subsequently withdrawn in October of that year after weeks of escalating protests. There was certainly no "take-over" in 2019 (the official hand-over happened in 1997) and Hong Kong is still under the "one country, two systems" legal distinction. I really don't know where some of you get your news from.

China has massive income inequality. With 1.4 billion people, most people are still very poor. But the relevance to young Taiwanese isn't how the average Chinese person is doing - it's how well those living in coastal cities are doing because that's where they're most likely to relocate to find work. This article provides some context: https://supchina.com/2019/02/26/young-taiwanese-are-dreaming-of-careers-in-china-but-not-unification/ "81 percent do not support Xi’s “one country, two systems” model" Yet, "According to a 2018 survey by Taiwan’s 1111 online job bank, 76 percent of Taiwanese said they would be interested in working in China, citing linguistic and cultural similarities and a stronger economy."

It wasn't just antiquated in a quaint way. I was literally shocked to see banking being done by pen and paper and it took me 1 hr to exchange 500 USD into Taiwan dollars in the year 2018.

2018 - visited Taipei. Had never gone before so was quite stunned to see how antiquated the city was, especially given my preconceived notions about how advanced and modern Taiwan was.

Like I said in my response to you in the other thread, I have no doubt that all what you say is true. There's an economic reality: China's GDP: $US 15 trillion Taiwan GDP: $US 0.66 trillion And even more relevant: Shenzhen GDP/capita: $USD 23k Taiwan GDP/capita: $USD 20k In a little more than 30 years, a marshland transformed into one of the biggest and most economically vibrant cities in the world and surpassed Taiwan by both GDP per capita and total GDP. Agreed that Taiwan has a vibrant semiconductor industry but how many can they employ? Semiconductor companies involve huge CAPEX with very little labor. TSMC only employs ~50k people. It's the future of the young people that decides the future direction of a country.

Many. Though the ones I know lean more toward the affluent/business class, so perhaps there's some innate bias there.

Didn't realize that there was a topic on this already. But I'll repost this from the Sberbank thread (along with some added thoughts): For those comparing what's happening now to what might happen between China and Taiwan, I think there's a big difference: Ukraine has been leaning toward the West for a long time because of what they foresee as better economic opportunities. China does not have this problem with Taiwan...in fact, the reverse is true. It's economic strength that draws countries closer to each other. Russia, unfortunately, has a weak economy and is increasingly seeing former satellite states forge closer bonds with the West. I can understand why Putin, who grew up in the Cold War and sees things through black and white dichotomies, feels increasing anxiety. Despite their antipathy for the Chinese communist party, most moderate Taiwanese view unification as inevitable. Moreover, it may well in the end by largely a symbolic gesture as China's economy grows larger and larger and draws Taiwan closer to its orbit. I visited Taipei a few years ago and was astounded by how antiquated their society was - their banking system was still pen and paper, the population is old and in the words of the locals, the economy had been in stasis for 20 years. The contrast is night and day compared with China's Tier 1 cities. Taiwan's young also sees this and are making conscious choices to move to China in search of better jobs.

There is not rational explanation for this except that humans are irrational.

Well, he pretty clearly has very strong conviction. Whether he's right or not is a different story.

I find the responses of China taking a hard line wrt Evergrande to be pretty funny. To me, it's crazy how long they've let Evergrande hang around for so long. This company even tried to build an EV company.

I don't really get this talk about NYC fading. Urbanization has been a global trend ever since human civilization began and has outlasted basically everything. Now, some may decamp for cheaper and smaller cities or suburbs but there will be others who make up the gap. There's a reason why people (especially the young) have always gravitated towards the largest cities.

I think what Munger said about Ma and Ant is on the money. Ant was doing loan originations while offloading 100% of the credit risk to other banks - there's a big moral hazard and misalignment of incentives in that kind of lending model. And it was becoming larger and larger with no checks and balances on its growth. The Chinese government is right to be nervous about seeing something like that outside of its regulatory purview. Not sure if I agree on his view on business travel and offices though. Perhaps it'll be depressed in the near to medium-term but teleconferencing has been around for a long, long time and it never replaced in-person meetings. In China, things have more or less returned to the way things were pre-pandemic.

This is the big factor IMO. NIMBYism exists everywhere. I don't think the situations in Toronto and Vancouver are all that different from other cities that's 1) attracting a lot of net migration; and 2) experience chronic obstacles to increase housing supply.

A good and balanced article on COVID politics: https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/23/put-straw-man-pandemic-denial-out-of-its-misery/ Hopeful that slowly and surely more balance is being brought to the public discussion.

I'm not so sure that their lockdown is entirely responsible for their low case count. Australia is in summer right now and it's becoming increasingly clear that this virus is highly seasonal. We didn't hit zero in the US during summer. The numbers actually went UP as we entered summer coincident with lifting restrictions. The summer increase in the US was almost entirely relegated to the sunbelt stats, where it was so hot that people had to gather indoors. Perhaps seasonal isn't the right word but rather the conditions that force people to gather in enclosed settings.

I'm not so sure that their lockdown is entirely responsible for their low case count. Australia is in summer right now and it's becoming increasingly clear that this virus is highly seasonal.

Not to mention several politicians who got caught breaking their own rules to have Thanksgiving gatherings. I don't blame the public for becoming increasingly jaded by political leadership.

First, a bulk thank-you for the well-wishers. We continue to not get any worse. All of my stepson's friends appear to be well and their families too. So maybe I got it at Costco where I wore a mask and spoke to nobody except from behind a window at checkout. Maybe my wife caught it ordering at the counter the one time in a restaurant in El Dorado Hills that prior weekend. But my stepson says he was showing symptoms all week, but then again my wife says he's a hypochondriac. I really don't care. Anyhow, we should have immunities for a while and we've booked ourselves six days on Oahu in late December -- we'll need to be tested again (ouch!) before the flight per travel restrictions. I seldom know how I get colds...it just happens I guess. There are times when I get sick despite not knowing anyone around me who is and other times when I don't get sick when the people I live with are. Anyway, hope you enjoy your trip!