frommi
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Posts posted by frommi
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Isn`t Buffet saying with this that he expects higher inflation going forward?
I like Buffet, but his macro predictions where not pretty good in the past if i remember correctly.
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After looking at a lot of drilling companies i am really questioning if it is wise at all to invest in one of them. The only company with more or less stable free cashflow generation was XOM. Nearly every other small or midcap driller have mainly negative free cashflow, so whats the reason to invest there? (Is this just a bet on huge inflation going forward?)
For me the oil service sector looks a lot more appealing. Or am i missing something? ( Given that i am a little bit stupid, please help me learning :) )
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A bear might be too unpopular to appear on TV, like you suggest… But is it really necessary to throw caution to the wind? Both Tepper and Cooperman seem serious investors to me. Certainly they both have been extremely successful! What need do they have to appear on TV and express views contrary to their true beliefs?
Gio
Isn`t this normal hedge fund behaviour? When they start talking about their investments on TV/press they typically want to get rid of them. They need liquidity to sell.
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Gio i think they use this because this is probably what the audience wants to hear. Nobody on TV wants a pessimistic view on the market, perhaps only to have something to laugh about. They just want to hear that when the market is already crashed. And the P/E ratio is probably the only thing a typical american will understand as a measure of valuation. (Even if its nonsense to predict the market behaviour that way.)
I always have a smile on my face when i see Tepper, i want to see him more regularly. Can`t they just start a comedy series with him? :)
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Hussmans latest: The Ingredients of a Market Crash
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140929.htm
I don`t like permanent crash talk, thats the reason i do it only now and once. :)
Market crash is just around the corner!
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I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).
i can understand you. also sold last week my posco to buy some stocks with more Price potential
And i thought i am good at timing. ;D
It was probably not a bad idea to sell pkx, even when i still think that there is still plenty of upside in the coming years.
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Did i misread something or do they have a nominal amount of 1.1 trillion of EUR/USD futures in their holdings as of 03/31/2014? (PIMCO Total Return Fund A (PTTAX), Annual report page 25/26)
That would be a loss of 80 billion$ in the last 3 month. Holy cow, please tell me that i am wrong.
Sometimes i post really stupid shit :). If that would be the case the NAV would have fallen a lot, so they probably sold their positions in the meantime.
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Looks like the USD will get stronger and stronger. This will have an impact on US exports and on earnings of nearly every S&P company (margin mean reversion finally kicking in?). I am really interested in the next quarter of earnings results. When this continues without the FED also printing money the US will get deflation in the near term. Cheap energy will probably aid this process.
When the FED starts printing again because it has no choice, we will see massive inflation but this is probably some years away.
Macro is really interesting but it sucks a whole lot of time thinking about how the world will implode someday.
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Did i misread something or do they have a nominal amount of 1.1 trillion of EUR/USD futures in their holdings as of 03/31/2014? (PIMCO Total Return Fund A (PTTAX), Annual report page 25/26)
That would be a loss of 80 billion$ in the last 3 month. Holy cow, please tell me that i am wrong.
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The last time we had this discussion was a good time to buy FFH. :D
I can imagine that buying both and rebalance to 50/50 every now and then resulted in very good outcomes.
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Thanks packer, was a nice weekend read and something that has its place as a reference on my desk. Its one of the few books that gives concrete formulas on how to value companies.
What i found interesting is that he wrote that most of the investors were not fully invested all the time, so this buy and hold forever or be 100% invested at all times is a little debusted here.
I now have to find a book on the turtle traders :).
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And then people responded by saying Putin is a maniac. And of course they were right. So I'm not sure what you're talking about.
On page 3 or 4 there is this stuff from Jim Rogers where he talks about russia, and i was at that point in time under the impression that the political situation gets better over time. But it has not improved, it got worse and this is just 10 months ago. So when you discounted the political system with 20%, don`t you think you now have to use a higher discount? And since this discount is not really quantifiable, why is the market wrong with the current discount?
The problem here from my point of view is that when the business gets under pressure the political system gets instable, too. Reminds me a bit of buying on margin.
But it was clearly my fault to not see this problems earlier, and i don`t want to blame anyone except me for that. So keep up the good work, i learned a lot!
At BP i underestimated the fines and open business claims, so again this was my fault not anyone else`s.
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Thanks for posting. The CAPE chart with 20x and 5x earning lines makes me even more fearful than i already am. Please help me! Can somebody please post something that paints the future in rosy colors?
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sorry to hear you jump ship, I will stay on the way John Templeton told us
When you meant me, there is nothing to be sorry about :). Look at the lukoil thread to see how the world in russia looked like 7-8 month ago before the Ukraine crisis. It looked like Putin would be a lot more business friendly in the future etc. And now look at the current dilemma. I see my investment in russia as a failure that cost me no money, so everythings fine.
Think about what will happen in russia with oil prices a lot lower than today. I doubt that any private asset in russia is safe from Putin in such a scenario.
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I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).
i can understand you. also sold last week my posco to buy some stocks with more Price potential
When you look at normalized earnings at Posco they are still pretty cheap. In the next steel bull cycle they should be able to earn 3x-4x of what they earn currently. And i doubt that Monish would buy something with 20% upside. :)
I will probably look very stupid at the end of the year but i bought more puts today and have now around 50% in cash. And some of west`s Japanese picks have found their way into my portfolio. (Thanks!)
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I revisited my investment thesis for russia in the last days and came to the conclusion that a lot of things have gotten worse in the last six month. I freaked out in the end and sold all russia related investments (BP,Lukoil,RSXJ) because i have no trust that things get better again as long as Putin has the lead.
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I am just getting a feel for in the long run who wins, the option buyer? or the seller? or is it even?
From my limited knowledge the option market is a zero sum business. On average the seller has an advantage because the tails of the volatility distribution are rare. But when they happen the buyer gets everything back that the seller has won. (Think about Oct. 1987)
But there are times like the end of 2008 where implied volatility was so high that you couldn`t really lose that much by selling options because you where in the middle of such a rare event and it was literally priced into the options as a permanent state.
You can get an edge through the mean reversion of implied volatility and that means sometimes its the buyer that has an advantage and sometimes the seller.
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High investment income (p/e) / low interest rate environment (float is not that valuable therefore low p/b)?
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1.) Are you able to admit that you were wrong on some of your shorts and cover with losses that exceed your initial investment? Otherwise its only a matter of time to go bust that way.
2.) In my eyes a good idea, because you can play it as a volatility/mean reversion bet.
3.) Don`t know.
4.) Cash helps to sleep at night, good idea. (Even if racemice will say something else, but its the only asset that nobody likes at the moment)
Personally i am beta hedged with S&P500 and MDAX puts since june and i am very pleased with the results so far. I had my biggest mistakes in june this year when i tried to short with futures and individual names and i was not mentally prepared for the consequences. With the puts i always say to myself that my problems get smaller with every further upmove.
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I realize a lot of people on these boards believe the future is solar and believe in new battery technologies. I don't. And the people who actually run power systems don't. Like for instance the people who mathematically model supply and demand at OPG.
you don't use coal fired plants for grid stability.There is a huge political shift from using coal to using nuclear/gas/solar because of the polution caused by coal powered plants. That is something you shouldn`t underestimate and will drive the future away from coal, regardless if new technolgies will enable cleaner coal power plants (Because coal=polution is in everybodies head). And from a grid stability standpoint its even better to have more gas plants because you can switch them on/off a lot faster than coal plants. Most countries use nuclear power for the base load already, so there is no case for using coal at all for power generation. And my hopes in this regard for the very long term is that fusion power plants will replace nuclear power plants and solve all energy problems for a very long time. (But thats probably decades away, current estimates are for commercial fusion power plants around 2050.)
Some links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
So in essence not solar/gas will replace coal, but nuclear energy will do it in the next decade in china and fusion energy in the very long term worldwide.
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Its a lot easier when you just compare your forward rate of return, that is something you can compare over all asset classes and different valued stocks. Then its just
distance to fair bookvalue/holding period in years + dividend yield + bookvalue growth (everything in percent).
But perhaps its just because i never understood which discount rate to use and i never found a good explanation for that. :)
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http://www.gurufocus.com/news/229743/2013-pabrai-investment-funds-annual-meeting-notes--chicago
The two names mentioned here have doubled from 2011 on, so i think he was just not patient enough.
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is it this dude?
http://www.muslim-markt.de/interview/2010/haisenko.htm
fun fact: his surname means "do i smell?" in finnish.
Yes i think so. And i found more
http://zaplog.nl/zaplog/article/osce_bociurkiw_we_saw_signs_of_heavy_machine_guns_no_sign_of_missle.
I think the day the truth comes out, russian stocks will surge a lot. (If that ever happens)
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I think its adjusted to the recent past and since the last 3 years were not very volatile, it goes to the extremes with very little volatility. Like all indicators its not very useful as a tool to time the market. I bet that when the market goes sideways the next 3 days its in the "normal" range again.
Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get Mortgage to Short Rates
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
But shorting rates is that kind of bet or not? When house prices don`t go up but down and your income is not growing its not a very good idea to do it. Taking on a mortgage to invest it in the stock market is playing with the risk curve and can get you deeply into trouble. Ask the japanese how good this idea worked over the last 25 years. (double whammy here, house prices fall and stock market, too.)
I don`t think the us will go that route, but you should never ignore the possibility of it. So in my view this bet only makes sense in a inflationary world, so in the end it is a bet on inflation. So long as you understand what you are doing go for it, but always know the risks :).