frommi
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Posts posted by frommi
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good at market timing?
http://www.colorado.edu/economics/courses/econ2020/4111/articles/soros-fund.html
Haha the typical anti market timing comment, what you can`t be right 100% of the time? Than its useless!
There are a lot more ways to skin the cat, the really good guys know more than one way to make money. Value investing is just one tool.
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Just wanted to thank you for opening the thread. I received my digital gold card from IB today after using the simple number card for a long time. Without this thread i wouldn`t have known that there is a better and more secure version.
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Thanks, good idea.
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XBI or the Biotech ETF looks like a phenomenal short.
Cardboard
Yes, shorted it again. Its like getting an ETF with 100 pump and dump stocks that have recently been pumped. Or i am just too stupid to understand these biotech valuations.
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Everything. 8)
Pretty much this, covered XBI shorts and short Russel futures in the opening and after that bought a lot of stuff, like CMPR,IBKR,LILA,CSU.TO, etc.
Really crazy what a difference one day/hour can make.
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Next question: Have you ever made money betting on the market direction. I know I haven't and lord knows I tried enough times.
Maybe we are just in a lull.
Historically when you hedged from august to october you didn`t gave up performance, regardless of where the market was. I would bet that only doing it when the market was expensive and with some kind of valuation bias would have improved overall performance. Now you can laugh about these statistics or dismiss them, but it is was has worked over the last 50 years. (and funny fact is, still nobody does it that way)
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I don`t think a tech crash is coming, but a biotech crash. You can pick a random company out of XBI and be sure to hit something like RCPT. 7 billion marketcap, 5-10 million in revenue, insider dilution, heavy losses. (but i am sure they have a wonderdrug in the pipeline ...)
The problem is that in XBI are 100 companies that are similar to that. I don`t need to be a biotech specialist to see that the real bubble in us equities is there.
This is something I agree with somewhat...
Not all drugs in pipeline are going to be wonder drugs...but how can we be sure and exclude the ones which are going to be? If the thesis is to short a basket...
Also like in venture capital investments, does one blockbuster drug make up for the losses for the rest and still provide an adequate return on capital? It could be a bubble if that threshold is passed....how could I be reasonably certain about that without knowing how many blockbusters, how big of a blockbuster and how quickly it will be a blockbuster.
My theory is that up to this point most of the biotech companies that really have something in store are already bought. And yes its a basket bet of just going short XBI.
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I don`t think a tech crash is coming, but a biotech crash. You can pick a random company out of XBI and be sure to hit something like RCPT. 7 billion marketcap, 5-10 million in revenue, insider dilution, heavy losses. (but i am sure they have a wonderdrug in the pipeline ...)
The problem is that in XBI are 100 companies that are similar to that. I don`t need to be a biotech specialist to see that the real bubble in us equities is there.
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Yea, #2 seems like the only workable solution...
I can`t really see how the US is able to default without creating a huge problem for retirees at the same time. And since this is a growing and voting cohort, its nearly impossible for the US to go that way. Of course printing money is a slow and long process, but its the one that can work without a revolution. Assuming we get a long period of deflation has the implicit assumption that the FED has no power/control anymore (at least over the currency). I simply don`t believe this.
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Japan doesn't have a fixed currency either and they've suffered from deflation for the last two decades. Secondly, QE isn't inflationary for anything but risk assets which has the potential to transcend to the greater economy - but generally doesn't since most of the risk assets are owned by a handful of the wealthy that don't typically spend the money unless if they just bought a Picasso.
Japan has not really printed that much money until the start of Abenomics?
There could be a real argument made that QE has been absolutely pointless except in potentially driving asset bubbles and monetizing the government debt.
When too much debt is the problem, QE is the only workable solution isn`t it? They have to print enough money to offset the negative money velocity. And ideally the government spends more money financed by the FED. That way you simply can`t have deflation. At the moment the FED is not printing money and the government is spending less, the outcome of that is what we see at the moment.
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I really doubt that the US will go into a long phase of deflation, but in the short term its always a possibility. As soon as the market drops the FED will turn around and anounce the next round of QE. And that is necessary until the deleveraging is over. Since the FED will then own most of the government debt its just an accounting number that the government can easily erase if it chooses to. They can simply print a trillion dollar coin and give it to the FED and the debt magically disappears. Thats the beauty of having full control over the supply of money.
EDIT: This was not possible in the 30`s, since the currency was gold backed, so it was a totally different situation.
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AXP and PWE
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I've read about PPP but it seems to me to be just the outward symptoms of underlying causes. It's like saying it costs x 'rubles' to buy the same as 'x' Canadian dollars. But the cause is far deeper. For example, is the US dollar the strongest currency because it represents - true or false - the free-est country on Earth? Least amount of government meddling? Socialism? etc...
No it is the strongest currency because it is one of the few countries that is currently not expanding the monetary base. And as long as that is the case, the trend will probably persist.
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Is there a correlation between investment performance and having the highest quality data?
I can`t see a reason to pay for data, but of course i understand that people that sell data have a different view on this aspect. :)
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3) the first step, i see this as a prerequisite for everything else. If we aren`t able to do this, than forget about everything else.
1) maybe in 50 years.
2) running out of time ...
4) maybe in 500 years. :)
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Bought GOOG,PCLN,CMPR,BRK.B,LUK,BAC,CHEF,HEI.A,LBRDA,VRX,CSU.TO,PDER,DNOW,LKQ ....
Sold puts and covered shorts. I really have to think about this summer hedging stuff very hard going forward, perhaps i should just stay invested during downturns.
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Looks like a possible deal will be
a) greece transfers 50-70 billion € of assets into a trust fund and immediately starts realizing the proposed reforms. Money is only paid after each round of votes in the greek parliament.
b) greece exits the € but is allowed to stay in europe and gets structural help out of the EU-honeypots.
Ball back to Tsipras ...
New referendum? :)
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But doesn't Mecham invest in companies like Bank of America, Cimpress, Sony and Outerwall, more turnarounds versus quality growth? It would be interesting to see an attribution analysis to see returns from these versus more quality names.
GMO Quality has actually trailed the S&P500 for 5 & 10 years.
Packer
I would put OUTR and Cimpress into the quality pocket, only Sony was a true turnaround. But in general he seems to favor businesses with high RoIC and insider ownership/management qualities.
But i may be wrong, perhaps he can answer that himself, i think he is a reader of this board. :)
EDIT: And maybe even Sony was a quality investment given the value of pictures+music.
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Mecham`s returns are probably a good proxy for this, ~38% CAGR over the last 6.5 years or 22% over the last 15 years.
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Talk me through the maths on this? What debts do you think they have to absorb from other partners that tips them into insolvency?
Greece and the target 2 saldo should put us easily above 110% Debt/GDP and there will be a heavy contraction in GDP because all other european countries don`t pay in the same currency anymore.
Its hard to see how this will all unfold and what the consequences are, but germany has a tendency to default instead of inflate.
I hope that doesn`t happen.
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There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). The same is true for keeping Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. This is why I see zero chance of keeping the Euro with the current legal, political and economical framework. This is fighting gravity. And European politicians either don't want to tell the truth to the people or they don't understand it (because they are vastly overestimating the power of politics vs. markets). I think it's more of the former than the latter because most politicians aren't stupid – it's all about incentives.
+1, can you see how germany will not default at the end of the €?
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Why's that?
Because introducing the € should have been an act that is not reversible, so they made no rule for an exit. No politician has thought about the current situation, politicians generally only think about what happens until the next polls.
Tepper
in General Discussion
Posted
Yes but they didn`t use leverage as far i know and when you compound at 27% for a decade and than have a 50% or 60% drawdown its not the end of the world. Especially when you look at the story, i mean he has only played with internet stocks in late 1999 because there was immense pressure from his investors, i doubt that he would have done it when he was a private investor at that time. Just shows how dangerous it can be to invest OPM.