phil_Buffett
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Posts posted by phil_Buffett
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does someone has pharmstandard in his Portfolio?
Francis argues that it is very very cheap on fcf basis
It looks like a Russia company. PE is about 5. What is your opinion on its operate governess?
i heard that pharmstandard wanted to take the Company private last year, something like that for a very low Price. but they get a lot of headwind and in the end doesnt do it. but the stock Price was fallen very much.
russia company´s are very hated and in Panic mode right now. i like an basekt Approach.
like: lukoil gas/oil
pharmstandard pharma
ctc media media
sistema conglomerat
sberbank bank
that would be my basket
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thank you JoelS very very much. great site with a lot of new article´s for me. great!!! :)
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does someone has pharmstandard in his Portfolio?
Francis argues that it is very very cheap on fcf basis
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great presentation from Eurobank properties. i like the depressed Situation in greece and the Management talk in there presentation a lot about graham and buffett, which are also good factors.
http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Outreach/2014_Conference/PPT/Chryssikos.pdf
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thanks for the posting. great letter. Francis is a great guy.
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This isn't a very fair comparison. Klarman has $30B in assets, while Schloss had about $250M AUM. The universe was far bigger for Schloss and opportunities plentiful.
I think both are doing / did the right thing for their size.
thats absolutely true obtuse. i didnt want to compare them do directly. i only mean that one of the two best Investors have different approaches to this Topic. and my interest is what are the superinvestors of Corner of berkshire and fairfax think and do on this Topic. my investing Approach is more like Walter schloss
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it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this Topic.
Walter schloss was always every year fully invested. seth klarman in contrast has right now a lot of cash. and is hoarding cash.
so what is your take on this.
are you fully invested?, or have you Little cash and when you find new ideas you invest and dont take much interest on macro stuff or market valuations? . or are you hoarding cash and do not invest in company´s even if they are cheap today and wait for a correction.
would be interesting to hear the thoughts of the superinvestors of the Forum.
iam right now fully invested.
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for me it makes absolutely no sense to sell us bank and wells Fargo and Holding bank of ireland. when a big 1 a lifetime crash Comes, ireland will be over. i would be happier to hold wells Fargo than bank of ireland. i dont believe that bank of ireland and ireland itself will survive a Crash today.
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"cardboard are you still on board at pennwest?"
Sure, but who am I?
I was the idiot who bought an initial position in the $11 range and then doubled down at what looked like the low before the last few days...
All the signals seem to point in the right direction except that the market for asset sales remains very weak. The price obtained was very low for these assets. I understand Roberts rationale based on his presentation but, a low price remains a low price. This combined with a reduction of another 4,000 boe/day on the already shocking low production forecast for 2014 really spooked the market.
The story has not changed much at all here. The price of entry is only better and with it your eventual rate of return. I bought too early, paid too much from what it is now, but I still think that in 2 or 3 years that the overall return will be quite good. And that is if the guys at CNQ, Suncor and other large firms don't take it out sooner. There is still after all high demand for light products out in Alberta due to the large oil sands production growth (pipeline shipping and refining). And when you look at the CDN$ price lately and their assumption of $89 CDN per barrel of light oil, then you start understanding that this company is pretty cheap now.
Regarding their cash flow long term forecast, I would assume that they will hit them close. You still can't be right on since too many prices can vary. However, as long as they target best in class costs and with the assets that they have, it should look fine. This Roberts guy is a chemical/process guy. Not a mine finder. He is working hard on everything that he can control and by the sound of it, it is just discipline and execution. Not landing on the moon type of stuff. BS is not accepted in his office. That is actually exactly what is needed to run a successful income trust which PWT should have been instead of the non-focused mess that it had become.
Cardboard
thanks cardboard very much for your answer. i bought a first stake yesterday at $7,5 and today more
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cardboard are you still on board at pennwest?
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iam often to unpatient and sell after a gain and miss the big gain. for example i sold a stock with a 35% gain after a very short time, but then the stock goes up to a 100% gain. i have very often the same Problem.
what do you do to be more Patient?
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Hi all,
did someone look at Sonae Capital, ticker SONC? The current price is 0.17 euro.
- It was spun off from Sonae SGPS in 2008.
- There's a write up on VIC at http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/3458
- Monish Pabrai owns 6.8% of the company, and probably bought at circa 4 times the current price. He spoke about the company in 2008 at the Value Investing Congress.
- The founding family owns 62.6% of the company. They are also the largest employer in Portugal.
- This year and last year they are buying back their own shares (but not a lot, the company now holds circa 0.169% of its share capital)
- Net debt of 273 million euro versus a market cap of 42.5 million euro.
- Real estate is valued by Cushman & Wakefield at 594.6 million euro (http://www.sonaecapital.pt/ResourcesUser/RelatorioC&W31122011ENG.pdf), furthermore the company has some significant shareholdings in real estate funds (not taken into account in the Cushman & Wakefield report) that had a combined value of 143 million euro at 31 December 2011 (http://www.sonaecapital.pt/ResourcesUser/SONCCOMUNICADOFY11ENG.pdf p.10).
- This gives a net value of 464 million euro or 1.85 euro per share, not taking into account any of the businesses.
- Half year report 2012 was bad. Some of the businesses were growing though.
I was going through one of Pabrai's presentations which had info on this company. There's also this write-up:
Anyone looked at it all?
in the comment section of the instablog they write that pabrai sold already
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nice write up about Eurobank properties. stock is higher since then but still a very good idea, i think.
http://de.scribd.com/doc/168974175/Vanshap-ValueInvestingCongress-131709
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Fiat would be my conviction long for the year. Once this Chrysler deal goes through, I think we r off to the races.
i think the same bmichaud. after they will Merger completly with chrysler the re-valuation of the Company Shares will go on. and they will starting the engine.
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I encourage you to look into it before Dec 26th if you think it could be a good idea.
"The amount to be distributed is equivalent to P$1.03182179 per outstanding share or P$5.15910896 per ADR, prior to deductions of the Personal Asset Tax and Income Tax obligations, as described below. Dividends will not be paid nor reserved to Treasury shares.
For ADR holders, the Record Date is December 26, 2013 and the Payment Date is January 6, 2014. The payment to these shareholders will be made through the Depositary Bank, JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A."
@LowIqinvestori would be interested in your idea :)
Telecom argentina. would be very nice :)
Will release my analysis after I build my position in TEO ;)
great thank you very much LowIQinvestor :)
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@LowIqinvestor
i would be interested in your idea :)
Telecom argentina. would be very nice :)
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Fortress Paper and Blackberry
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does someone bought a stake in Eurobank properties? interesting to hear some thoughts about the Company :)
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$2000/ton dissolving pulp :)
But seriously, I've asked people to not buy me anything, but I might buy myself some books from my amazon wishlist. Many were recommended by people on this board, so thanks!
great Quote liberty ;D ;D ;D ;D
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very nice Video from mohnish :)
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Typically debt issued as investment grade has few covenants that would prohibit such transactions, which of course are mostly bad for creditors. So SHLD has a lot of freedom to spin out assets. Yes, there could be a fraudulent conveyance issue if the company ended up going bankrupt, but in addition to having to go bankrupt within a reasonably near timeframe, it would also have to be determined that the spinoff left Sears in a certain amount of financial distress. Which would be challenging to prove in a court, I think, with Sears at a 5bn market cap and Lands End just a small fraction of that value.
If they were worried about fraudulent conveyance, Sears could also end up using the same tactic as in the Orchard spinoff where they raised debt at the new entity to pay a dividend up to Sears, to provide some deleveraging to offset the spin.
High yield bonds/leveraged loans typically have covenants restricting spinoff transactions and other restricted payments to shareholders, junior creditors, etc. So that's what prevents spinoffs in a lot of cases.
I see. So there is a lot of leeway to get by fraudulent conveyance. Could you please explain a bit more about the Orchard case? If I understand correctly, SHLD wanted OSH to carry a boat load of debt at the time of spin off, but worried if that would case fraudulent conveyance, so they didn't do that. Instead they waited for a year for the fraudulent conveyance case to become invalid, and then they let OSH borrow money and pay SHLD the dividend. Then OSH got into chp 11 but no one could claim fraudulent conveyance now?
In addition to SHLD, I am also looking at FIATY's potential spin off. Its CEO once mentioned that in the worst case, they can spin off Ferrari and Chrysler to shareholders, and let Fiat die. So that is a bit different from the SHLD vs OSH case, because the child is the valuable one instead of the parent. How would they avoid fraudulent conveyance in that case?
muscleman great Topic! iam also interesting in this question. i hold both sears and fiat, and would be interesting to hear the exact Definition.
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i think it could be BYD, Fiat or CHK.
i have all 3 in my Portfolio. and have for all three great expectations :)
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France must be very happy.
France and Switzerland have easy groups.
who'd have thought that uefa and fifa are headed by a French and a swiss guy.......
;D ;D ;D
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i now starting to read Distant Force a Memoir of the Teledyne Corporation and the Man who created it - Dr George A. Roberts
That was interesting, though not always the best-written book. For those who want most of the ideas in a different format, there's this great podcast by the Manual of Ideas:
thanks for the link, liberty. :) i will check it out :)
What are you buying today?
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AIQ, altius, alderon, GM, Sberbank, Horsehead, BYD, RJET, Sprint, Clarke