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phil_Buffett

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Posts posted by phil_Buffett

    what are you selling today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    i sold my pharmstandard Holding today. Holding it for two months. 37% yield.

     

    now buying more hyundai preffered and Samsung preffered.

     

    Phil - if you don't mind my asking - what broker do you use to buy the Korean stocks given the difficulty for retail investors to get them?

     

    And are there special restrictions in buying them?

     

    thanks

     

     

     

    cubsfan iam buying on german ING. i can only buy Samsung preffered and hyundai preffered. These are the only two i can buy. there are no restrictions because they are gdr Shares. they are Imitate a half of a preffered share.

     

    cheers  :)

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I think it's about size of the bet. he will invest a little in the hopes of getting a lot, similar to his bet on the HK dollar. I think it's a bet which he believes strongly in but doesn't want to put up as much capital as he would do if he bet on the pref. The fairholme plan would dilute him, which is why he opposes it. just conjecture and guesswork and could be way off base. interested in other takes...

     

    thanks wellmont very much for your answer  :)

    FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    holders of the preferred could swap for common shares. this is essentially the fairholme plan in a nutshell. it's also mentioned in the Ackman slide deck.

     

    Can you point to where in the Ackman slides it says preferred could swap for common? On slide 109 he talks about the Treasury converting their preferred, but I don't see anything about the publicly trade ones. Also, from looking at some of the prospectuses I can see they are non-convertible. So am just curious to see how the preferred can be converted, absent Fairholme's plan not being implemented.

    you're right he isn't specific. But he does say there are "several" ways in which Fannie and Freddie could become fully capitalized "more quickly". On the same slide he says treasury could allow f&f to "raise more capital". I don't believe that Fairholme is holding so much preferred in the hopes it trades at 95% of par and starts paying it's dividends. I believe his plan is to create a large stake in the common equity of the company. Ackman has different incentives. I believe the hedge fund holders of the preferred will play a significant role in how to restructure f&f. btw I participated in a plan (post crisis) that allowed a holder of Citigroup preferred/trups to exchange into common stock at a discount to then prevailing prices. the preferred do not have to be convertible to be exchanged for common stock.

     

    even if an exchange offer never materializes, the pref could be a great investment. If there is a favorable court ruling or a negotiated compromise in the next year or so, the preferred could double almost overnight. Depending on your holding period that's not a bad outcome.

     

    wellmont would be nice to hear from you. ackman has almost only common stock. what is his incentive? what will happen to common in your opinion?

    Spring 2014 Issue of Graham & Doddsville

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/?p=1683

     

    The students of Columbia Business School just released the Spring 2014 Issue of Graham & Doddsville.

     

    The new issue features Arnold Van Den Berg and Jim Brilliant of Century Management, Philippe Jabre of Jabre Capital, Eric Rosenfeld of Crescendo Partners, and CBS Alum H. Kevin Byun of Denali Investors. This issue also covers the 17th Annual CSIMA Conference and includes ideas from the 2014 Pershing Square Challenge.

     

    thanks hellsten  :)

    Wilbur Ross: Lessons from the IRE Saga ( 2014 Value Investing Conference)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    i am no bank expert... many others on this board are

    i have been lucky though to do reasonably okay with banks because they are generally the first to benefit when the macro environment starts to change -

    it is less clear to me what they see in Greece....  Ireland is something I can easily understand: low tax rate; high tech (IT and pharma); and the exposure to the UK economy is also something I liked.  So even for an ordinary person like me without knowing all the nuts and bolts that Wilbur and Prem did - one could do well just like Band of America when the US economy turned.

     

    Greece - what does it offer to the EU / world economy?  What is their competitive advantage? low tax?  I'm having a harder time seeing the rationale...

     

    I should add David Einhorn added to Alpha Bank - another Greek bank -  so clearly they are seeing something.  I think it's probably just a bet on Greece return to 'normalcy' - so the comeback could be very strong; but probably not as such a home run as Ireland.

     

    Gary

     

    gary iam with you, and think it is a bet on greece return to normalcy. greece is not that great as ireland for example. still huge huge debt, completly false structure in the System, no good tax System and so on. but it was beaten so hard, so any Little step to a improvment will reward the stocks allot and especially then Eurobank here as a bank.

    Wilbur Ross: Lessons from the IRE Saga ( 2014 Value Investing Conference)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for sharing

    interesting points

    - perceived risks vs real risks

    - better to come late into the game of turnarounds and get better data points

    - deep value investing often needs a catalyst such as a buyout

    - Prem waited 6 extra weeks for Wilbur to be able to sell his shares even though they had already received a high bid... Quite telling of Prem as a business partner :)

     

    Gary

     

    interesting gary as you mentioned, wilbur said better to come late into the game. now with their next Investment Eurobank in greece they invested now. so iam very interested in it. ross didnt put as much as into bank of ireland (only 37mio) but still he invests. fairfax put in Eurobank 400mio.

     

    i think greece will recover and Eurobank will be not the same as IRE but will also come back strong.

     

    thoughts on this?

    Greek bank bailout fund picks Fairfax as anchor investor for Eurobank

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    This is what puzzles me - and sorry I am not as up to date on all the stuff Prem has said -- on the one hand he sees deflation in europe, china, and a recession for 10 years....... and on the other hand he pumps in $500M into a Greek Bank & also a few years ago in Bank of Ireland....   

     

    If he is 100% convinced there will be a massive correction - why bother investing in the sector in the region that will most likely be affected negatively when his dooms day prediction comes true?  :o

     

    +1

     

    thats the Point i also dont get. and thats the Point i will not invest in fairfax. he sells j&j, wells Fargo and prem says that the ultimative Crash will come (because of his big hedges) and then buys a greek bank  ;D ;D ;D the safest Thing on earth. if a Depression will come in europe, greece is the first Thing with this high debt load who will Crash. makes no sense.

     

    btw iam thinking that this not will happen so iam optismtic for europe and us. and would invest in Eurobank here.

    in fairfax not!

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