I don`t say its gone but i know that we are not at the bottom of the cycle. The oil price will sure give sales a kick for a short time, but how do you determine when to get out? There are already signs of a global slowdown, so even when the US has pent up demand whats happening in the rest of the world?
Is GM/FIAT a double from here? (I doubt it, but i don`t know it either.)
So just ignore me, i have no clue. :)
Well, bottom of cycle was 09 so that's right. If you are saying you will only invest at the bottom of the cycle or near it, I guess that's fair enough. The auto investments are not dependent on low oil prices, but the American manufacturers have some upside from low oil prices because they own the market for pickup trucks and are strong in SUVs (which both have high margins).
I think it's hard to predict macro so I'm not going to give the impression that I can. But Europe has been under LT trend in auto sales since the crisis as well. In Asia you have a situation where cars/people is at about a 0.1x ratio to modern western countries, so I'm not too worried about demand there (though oversupply could of course become an issue in the future, like in Europe).