james22

That may be. But the hack did walk away from a finance career to pursue his writing dream and did write a best-seller on this very topic. You've surely done something similar, Jurgis?

MONEY Doesn't Fund Dreams Shouldn't I make money first — to fund my dream? The notion that there's an order to your working life is an almost classic assumption: Pay your dues, and then tend to your dream. I expected to find numerous examples of the truth of this path. But I didn't find any. Sure, I found tons of rich guys who were now giving a lot away to charity or who had bought an island. I found plenty of people who had found something meaningful and original to do after making their money. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the garden-variety fantasy: Put your calling in a lockbox, go out and make a ton of money, and then come back to the lockbox to pick up your calling where you left it. It turns out that having the financial independence to walk away rarely triggers people to do just that. The reality is, making money is such hard work that it changes you. It takes twice as long as anyone plans for. It requires more sacrifices than anyone expects. You become so emotionally invested in that world — and psychologically adapted to it — that you don't really want to ditch it. I met many people who had left the money behind. But having "enough" didn't trigger the change. It had to get personal: Something had to happen such as divorce, the death of a parent, or the recognition that the long hours were hurting one's children. (One man, Don Linn, left investment banking after he came home from a business trip and his two-year-old son didn't recognize him.) The ruling assumption is that money is the shortest route to freedom. Absurdly, that strategy is cast as the "practical approach." But in truth, the opposite is true. The shortest route to the good life involves building the confidence that you can live happily within your means (whatever the means provided by the choices that are truly acceptable to you turn out to be). It's scary to imagine living on less. But embracing your dreams is surprisingly liberating. Instilled with a sense of purpose, your spending habits naturally reorganize, because you discover that you need less. This is an extremely threatening conclusion. It suggests that the vast majority of us aren't just putting our dreams on ice — we're killing them. http://www.fastcompany.com/45909/what-should-i-do-my-life

I'm thinking about timber. What do you think of WY?

Dan Loeb: Nearly one year into this market cycle, a few truths of hedge fund investing are evident: ... putting money to work in equities and credit today requires a thoughtful perspective on global events. Macro analysis is no longer just for macro traders. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/dan-loeb-compares-managing-money-2016-game-thrones-slaughter

agreed. rational behavior, not bubble behavior. there is a difference between being a value investor and lamenting that everything is too expensive, and crying bubble Return chasing behavior = bubble behavior. (Why expect antsy investors desperate for any return to act like greedy investors euphoric and offering stock tips?) Return chasing behavior ≠ rational behavior: A world where short-term interest rates are compressed to zero is also a world where economic growth is likely to run several percent below historical norms. The narrow gap between low expected growth and no growth at all implies an elevated probability of intervening recessions and credit strains. The extreme level of equity valuations also implies an elevated potential for steep cyclical drawdowns. In this high-risk environment, investors should be demanding larger-than-normal risk premiums on equities versus the returns available on Treasury securities. Instead, current stock valuations imply 10-year expected returns that provide no compensation at all for the additional risk. http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc160718.htm

On the relationship between the two, once read: Studies show if mortgage rates double, home prices decline by 15% within 2-3 years.

+1

Rate is not the only consideration. I'd want to know the reputation of my lender as well. https://newrepublic.com/article/134722/foreclosure-sleuth

Saudi Arabia’s new strongman, deputy crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, known popularly as MbS has revealed some detail on the IPO listing of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state owned oil company and world’s largest exporter. According to latest, Saudi Arabia is looking to list 5% stake of Saudi Aramco and expects the valuation of the company to reach to $2 trillion. The kingdom wants to convert Aramco as a holding company. Subsidiaries of the company will also be listed and its board will be elected and financial information of the company will be released soon enough. http://www.econotimes.com/Saudi-Prince-reveals-first-details-of-Aramco-IPO-199934

Today's Hussman: In 1954, John Kenneth Galbraith offered a similar narrative of the top-formation leading up to the 1929 crash: “The temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these occasions the Times happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again. Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance were similarly, if less permanently, discredited.”

Was reminded of this last night when my golfing partners were talking about the market going up. Wake me when it falls.

I can borrow a year's base salary from my employer at 3%. The market crashes and BRK falls with it to BV (or below), I'll take advantage of it.

I repeat myself, but the time- and dollar-weighted investment horizon of a 25 year-old is only about 12 years. http://media.pimco-global.com/pdfs/pdf/VP001-050107%20Better%20Glidepath.pdf

The time- and dollar-weighted investment horizon of a 25 year-old is only about 12 years. http://media.pimco-global.com/pdfs/pdf/VP001-050107%20Better%20Glidepath.pdf

I do expect the Vanguard REIT Index Fund Institutional Shares (VGSNX) to outperform the Admiral Shares (VGSLX) and ETF (VNQ) by .02% and Investor Shares (VGSIX) by .16%...

I'd very much like it to remain undervalued until the day I retire, please.

I see bargains, sure. But I'm market timing (http://www.arborinvestmentplanner.com/market-timing-valuation-timing/). As the bargains will likely fall with the market in any significant correction, I'll hope to buy them then.

I'd forgot Stewart. Funny. Our bottom line result is that perfect foresight has great returns, but gut-wrenching drawdowns. In other words, an active manager who was clairvoyant, and knew ahead of time exactly which stocks were going to be long-term winners and long-term losers, would likely get fired many times over if they were managing other people’s money. http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2016/02/02/even-god-would-get-fired-as-an-active-investor/

"He [Lou Green] said to me, 'Why did you buy Marshall-Wells?' "And I [buffett] said, 'Because Ben Graham bought it.'" ... "Lou looked at me and said, 'Strike one!' "I'll never forget the way he looked at me when he said it." It dawned on him: "Warren, think for yourself." He felt foolish.

I'd begin with Deming's 14 Points. As applied to higher education, for example: http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1001&context=csa_fac_pub&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fclient%3Dsafari%26rls%3Den%26q%3Ddeming%2B14%2Bpoints%2Beducation%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8#search=%22deming%2014%20points%20education%22

Click on the link next to my picture. Will update for January over the weekend, but hasn't changed much. Really like the portfolio overviews. I've relied on reviewing my thinking by reviewing my posts (on another forum), but you've convinced me to begin more formally doing something similar. Thanks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-01/here-are-3-trades-hedgies-are-using-bet-yuan-devaluation

I was a great investor for the 5 years 1995-2000.

Vanguard's Energy fund (VGELX)

That's a fair criticism. I feel he might underestimate black swans and the possibility "this time is different." We don't really disagree that much, probably. And I appreciate the discussion. Why not assume his commentary holds him accountable and appreciate it for whatever insights it provides you? I sure do.