james22
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Posts posted by james22
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Chainalysis found that only 0.34% [$24.2B] of the transaction volume with cryptocurrencies in 2023 was attributable to criminal activity.
https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2024-crypto-crime-report-introduction/
Research suggests that illicit activities in the EU generated about €110 billion in 2010 – or around 1% of the EU’s GDP.
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Josh Brown just guessed the mystery stock BRK is buying is Amazon.
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On 2/21/2024 at 4:06 AM, Luca said:
I am hoping that this bubble gets juiced more ...
It's not a bubble, it's an adoption curve.
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Criminals don't trust anybody, but they trust Bitcoin.
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6 minutes ago, CGJB said:
Mind sharing what your average cost is?
$606
From $480 when swooned after the ETF launch to just recently at $700.
Took me some time to get comfortable with the position sizing (I'd been uninterested in BTC before the ETF approval, and I'm somewhat risk-averse since retired). Just seems a pretty unique opportunity - not often a new asset class comes around.
Still seems early enough to get in (before BTC hits its ATH).
And it's unlikely the entry point will matter much in the long run anyway. BTC will most likely do either really, really well or really, really poorly.
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23 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said:
Would love to hear more about this!
Check the MSTR thread.
Since the Bitcoin ETFs approval, I've come around.
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On 1/1/2024 at 5:19 PM, james22 said:
40% BRK
20% IT (VITAX)
20% SV (VSIAX)
10% Energy/Utilities (VGELX)
10% ITT (VFIUX)
35% BRK
15% MSTR
15% IT (VITAX)
15% SV (VSIAX)
10% Energy/Utilities (VELX)
10% ITT (VFIUX)
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You'll buy BTC at the price you deserve, Luca.
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11 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
We're still very early in the adoption trend even if the technology isn't quite new any longer.
As I believe I mentioned in the MSTR thread, maybe it helps to think of the ETF approval as the Bitcoin IPO? It was certainly uninvestable for me before then.
But even better, because we can see how it's performed despite the difficulty acquiring and holding, the off-putting cultism, the naive hype, the Fudd resistance, the threat of being outlawed, the bad actors, the fraud, etc. - all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
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22 minutes ago, Sweet said:
A couple of years ago I had all sorts of people telling me they owned crypto. Mail man, guy who did building work around the house, most shocking of all was a few girls in work. I asked each of them whether they owned stocks and none did, one even replied they were too risky. This a long way of saying that I don’t think Bitcoin is in the early adoption phase as all.
There certainly was awareness during the last run-up.
But less so this time.
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On 1/10/2024 at 11:22 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think you'll find answers here a little biased given that's it's traditionally a value investor forum and often times that favors the status quo and eschews new/exciting/sexy type investments.
With companies like Blackrock and Fidelity advising that it's a new asset class and recommending allocations of 1-5% to it, I think you'll see plenty of passive flows over time as firms update their asset allocation models/guidance and delegated accounts get allocated to the ETFs.
Not sure if the responses you see here will be what is matched in reality.
This thread pretty good evidence we're still very, very early?
Value investor or not, this is still an individual investment forum, one that recognizes "special situations."
If BTC has no interest here (yet), imagine how far behind most index investors are.
Unacceptable Topics
Greater Fool Investing Strategies
Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel
Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules
LOL
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Anyone else change their mind?
On 1/10/2024 at 2:08 PM, james22 said:I'm unconvinced myself if it's an asset class, but I'll probably commit a couple percent to it anyway.
I'm now convinced and at 10%, planning to go to 15% tomorrow.
Not often a new asset class is created.
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It's easy to overthink this, Cigarbutt.
10 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:i get the network effect, the ease of access etc but continue to wonder if the demand factors will be significantly curtailed by institutions that are now basically in the wait and see mode.
Which institutions? Not the financial institutions that fought the government to create the product. They aren't in wait-and-see mode, they are looking to sell that product (and other financial institutions as well as soon as they can satisfy the due diligence requirements).
The government institutions may be in wait-and-see mode, but the financial institutions didn't spend billions to bring the product to market to easily give it up.
10 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:Going back to the Cantillon effect which has been playing out since the GFC, my bet is that institutions will reform themselves, somehow. Maybe that assumption is wrong?
That seems unlikely. Best hope is forcible reform as voters grow increasingly unhappy as they become increasingly aware.
Krüger painted a compelling picture where individuals, previously unexposed to cryptocurrency, will begin to view Bitcoin as an integral component of their retirement planning strategy. He believes that the asset will likely be included in millions of 401(k) plans. This inclusion could lead many to align their views on financial dissatisfaction with the realization that Bitcoin offers an exceptional alternative to traditional financial systems.
https://ambcrypto.com/binances-net-balance-brings-cheer-to-investors-as-bnb-crosses-300/
2 minutes ago, Castanza said:@Cigarbutt A few books if you have the time (below) . I think to understand Bitcoin you have to understand the perspective and reason for it's existence.
I'd respectfully disagree. Whatever the reason for its existence, it's not what's driving price action today (FOMO). Seems enough to recognize the supply/demand imbalance.
2 minutes ago, Castanza said:- The Bitcoin Standard
That said, my copy just showed up and I'm looking forward to reading.
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4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
How much someone is willing to pay for it will depend on how much value it provides them.
In a 2022 paper published by BlackRock titled "Asset Allocation with Crypto," the investment management corporation suggests that the optimal Bitcoin allocation for a well-diversified portfolio is 84.9%.
This significant allocation highlights the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as an essential asset class for investors seeking to maximize returns and diversify their portfolios in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
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5 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:
The questions are not to annoy or to trap into some kind of useless discussion.
Sorry, should have said: Not Dave, but I'll try to answer.
5 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:i don't know how to value cryptocurrencies and want to learn.
demand > supply = numbergoup
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Not Dave, but I'll take the bait.
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Can you please simply explain (instead of providing a quote)?
Descriptive in Bitcoin's case, rather than predictive, no?
Or don't you take EFT approval as acceptance?
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Please elaborate about the Cantillon effect and how this would benefit Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general?
https://www.google.com/search?q="cantillon+effect"+bitcoin
https://www.google.com/search?q="nakamoto+effect"
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Please elaborate (with in mind cryptocurrencies as a potential investment) how cryptocurrencies do not end up as creatures of the state?
laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
As opposed to what other investment?
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On 2/16/2024 at 9:43 AM, Gmthebeau said:
I still think there is say a 25% chance the FED will be forced to raise rates even higher.
In an election year?
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Great, great essay, but I'll probably wait and borrow from the library.
"Heart-wrenching" is a little much for me.
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1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think we get one more cycle starting this halving. BTC may go up to 200-300k as the FOMO will be more widespread, but still not driven by the institutional adoption. Then we'll come back down to 50-100k in one last shakeout and from there the adoption curve will really take off as 2-3 years will have passed.
Market cap will be sufficiently high to start accepting widespread inflows from retail and corporates. That'll drive the market high enough to allow for the entrants of countries/sovereign wealth/central banks.
Why would institutional adoption be so much slower than (surveyed) RIA adoption?
Especially the institutions that brought the ETFs forward?
Fidelity won't market its Bitcoin ETF as an advantage over Vanguard?
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1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think it'll just take more time.
Fair enough (shouldn't expect RIAs to be chomping at the bit in 60 days or whenever they can recommend an allocation), but a couple quarters of underperformance should encourage adoption, yeah?
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Cryptocurrencies
in General Discussion
Posted
I think the risk-reward proposition for Bitcoin in the year 2024 is better than any other time in the history of the asset. Saylor