Jump to content

james22

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,844

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by james22

    Hussman is legendary

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by james22

    6 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

    Where a lot of these guys go wrong is they believe too much in mean reversion and the "lessons" of market/economic history which  makes it difficult for them to accept that maybe this time it is different and they forget that economic laws are not like the laws of physics and are not immutable. 

     

    Exactly.

     

    On 3/24/2024 at 2:49 PM, james22 said:

    Hussman’s advance, researchers say, consists of the patterns he has found across hundreds of autism cases.

     

    When your strength is finding patterns, you find them everywhere.

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wachtwoord said:

    I  was mainly pointing out he was being far far too soft on himself and that by doing so he would never fix that particular shortcoming.

     

    I've no problem swinging at a fat pitch.

     

    I went from 0 to 1100 MSTR shares since the ETF's approval. It's now ~33% of my portfolio (I'm up $1M+).

     

     

    How did you size your Bitcoin position in 2012? You must be up many millions, yeah?

     

    Have you held since then? Added?

     

    What percent of your portfolio is Bitcoin now?

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

    Is it not one of the absolute stupidest exercises imaginable as an investor to sit around trying to guess "this or that" in terms of "what will outperform"? First, many have a hard enough time as it is, just picking things that make money in absolute terms. 2) no one Ive seen, even amongst the greatest investors of all time, has consistently demonstrated an advantage guessing these things, they instead just focus on finding those one or two high conviction ideas....and 3) isnt it also doubly dumb from a simple logic point of view given that theres like 10,000+ listed investments out there and there will also be one that "woulda done better"?

     

    I'm only arguing that in 2012, there was no more reason to believe in Bitcoin than any other long-shot stock.

     

    Since the ETF approval (and Blackrock, Fidelity) recognized it as an asset class, there is.

    Hussman is legendary

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Over the past 15 years Hussman, 48, has thrown himself into understanding the disorder — ever since his son, J.P., was diagnosed with it as a child. Because the vast majority of cases show a family link (a relative on J.P.’s mother’s side is autistic), Hussman has focused on its genetic causes. Almost completely self-taught, he’s spent nights and family vacations poring over obscure scientific textbooks (he says he’s Amazon.com’s best customer) and research abstracts. He not only funded a genomics center at the University of Miami, but has spent years collaborating with scientists there.

     

    Finally, this year the science journal Molecular Autism published his findings in a paper that top researchers are calling a breakthrough. The dense, 16-page article features Ph.D.-level mathematics and abstruse genetic analyses. (We’ll spare you the details, but you can check it out here.)

     

    “I found it really interesting,” says Dan Geschwind, a leading autism researcher at UCLA’s School of Medicine. Joseph Buxbaum, another top researcher at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, says, “People are beginning to think about other areas where the mathematics and statistics have really evolved, and then bringing them back to genetics. This is a really neat example.” Buxbaum himself is using methods borrowed from astrophysics to research autism.

     

    Hussman’s advance, researchers say, consists of the patterns he has found across hundreds of autism cases. Each person is the result of millions of genetic coin flips that occur across the human genome. Hussman’s algorithm can detect unusual clusters of flips that may be linked to autism. There’s a second benefit too. If you look at each coin flip separately to find the ones causing autism, you miss something because the flips are interconnected by genetic material — one flip can influence another.

     

    Until now, autism researchers haven’t been able to fully incorporate that influence into their research. Hussman created a way to do that, using complex statistics he learned from studying markets. “In finance, when you see the same signal across two different markets or countries, you take that as a stronger signal of information than if you only saw that signal in one market,” he says. “It’s similar in genetics.”

     

    https://archive.ph/R5VYY


    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110131.htm

    China

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    On 3/22/2024 at 9:28 AM, Gregmal said:

    Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week. 

     

    It's hard work undermining Western civilization.

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

    Hard to find? It's been the since 2012! And there hasn't been that much noise for the longest time ...

     

    Bitcoin brings with it excitement, speculation, rumor, and downright confusion. To be sure, Bitcoin is complicated. 

     

    There's been FUD since the beginning. (And worse: crypto discussion is actually prohibited on the Bogleheads forum, for example.)

     

    And one could have found the article and still walked away thinking it too speculative:

     

    Remember that Bitcoin should still be considered an experiment. As resilient as the system has proven to be, it is still new. The value of a Bitcoin could drop to zero tomorrow.

     

    Bitcoin is a highly volatile commodity with an extremely uncertain future.

     

    A prudent person should assume Bitcoin will fail, if for no other reason than that most new things fail. 

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The thing is, you have to have studied crypto a bit to know the difference.

     

    And you've no reason to study if you've (not unreasonably) applied the authority bias heuristic.

     

    You can fault those for looking to Buffett/Munger for their take on a new technology, something they admit they struggle with, though you wouldn't think they take so adamant a position on Bitcoin if they weren't sure of themselves.

     

     

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

    Buying and, above all, "holding" Bitcoin is not just an IQ test for individuals but also for countries.

     

    To be fair, most don't bother to study it because they've been told it's a Ponzi by people who should know better.

     

    When you've Buffet/Munger on one side of the argument and Sam Bankman-Fried the other, you can believe you know all you need to.

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    But the governments who abuse the fiat monetary system haven't built shit. They've demonstrated nothing. Their only claim to power is printing money to buy votes.

     

    And if they trigger a hard money backlash, who better to replace them than those who correctly predicted it?

     

    (And of those, it'll be those who've also built shit that rule, not those who just bought into bitcoin for a lambo.)

×
×
  • Create New...