james22
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Posts posted by james22
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22 minutes ago, Sweet said:
A couple of years ago I had all sorts of people telling me they owned crypto. Mail man, guy who did building work around the house, most shocking of all was a few girls in work. I asked each of them whether they owned stocks and none did, one even replied they were too risky. This a long way of saying that I don’t think Bitcoin is in the early adoption phase as all.
There certainly was awareness during the last run-up.
But less so this time.
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On 1/10/2024 at 11:22 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think you'll find answers here a little biased given that's it's traditionally a value investor forum and often times that favors the status quo and eschews new/exciting/sexy type investments.
With companies like Blackrock and Fidelity advising that it's a new asset class and recommending allocations of 1-5% to it, I think you'll see plenty of passive flows over time as firms update their asset allocation models/guidance and delegated accounts get allocated to the ETFs.
Not sure if the responses you see here will be what is matched in reality.
This thread pretty good evidence we're still very, very early?
Value investor or not, this is still an individual investment forum, one that recognizes "special situations."
If BTC has no interest here (yet), imagine how far behind most index investors are.
Unacceptable Topics
Greater Fool Investing Strategies
Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel
Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules
LOL
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Anyone else change their mind?
On 1/10/2024 at 2:08 PM, james22 said:I'm unconvinced myself if it's an asset class, but I'll probably commit a couple percent to it anyway.
I'm now convinced and at 10%, planning to go to 15% tomorrow.
Not often a new asset class is created.
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It's easy to overthink this, Cigarbutt.
10 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:i get the network effect, the ease of access etc but continue to wonder if the demand factors will be significantly curtailed by institutions that are now basically in the wait and see mode.
Which institutions? Not the financial institutions that fought the government to create the product. They aren't in wait-and-see mode, they are looking to sell that product (and other financial institutions as well as soon as they can satisfy the due diligence requirements).
The government institutions may be in wait-and-see mode, but the financial institutions didn't spend billions to bring the product to market to easily give it up.
10 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:Going back to the Cantillon effect which has been playing out since the GFC, my bet is that institutions will reform themselves, somehow. Maybe that assumption is wrong?
That seems unlikely. Best hope is forcible reform as voters grow increasingly unhappy as they become increasingly aware.
Krüger painted a compelling picture where individuals, previously unexposed to cryptocurrency, will begin to view Bitcoin as an integral component of their retirement planning strategy. He believes that the asset will likely be included in millions of 401(k) plans. This inclusion could lead many to align their views on financial dissatisfaction with the realization that Bitcoin offers an exceptional alternative to traditional financial systems.
https://ambcrypto.com/binances-net-balance-brings-cheer-to-investors-as-bnb-crosses-300/
2 minutes ago, Castanza said:@Cigarbutt A few books if you have the time (below) . I think to understand Bitcoin you have to understand the perspective and reason for it's existence.
I'd respectfully disagree. Whatever the reason for its existence, it's not what's driving price action today (FOMO). Seems enough to recognize the supply/demand imbalance.
2 minutes ago, Castanza said:- The Bitcoin Standard
That said, my copy just showed up and I'm looking forward to reading.
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4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
How much someone is willing to pay for it will depend on how much value it provides them.
In a 2022 paper published by BlackRock titled "Asset Allocation with Crypto," the investment management corporation suggests that the optimal Bitcoin allocation for a well-diversified portfolio is 84.9%.
This significant allocation highlights the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as an essential asset class for investors seeking to maximize returns and diversify their portfolios in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
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5 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:
The questions are not to annoy or to trap into some kind of useless discussion.
Sorry, should have said: Not Dave, but I'll try to answer.
5 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:i don't know how to value cryptocurrencies and want to learn.
demand > supply = numbergoup
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Not Dave, but I'll take the bait.
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Can you please simply explain (instead of providing a quote)?
Descriptive in Bitcoin's case, rather than predictive, no?
Or don't you take EFT approval as acceptance?
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Please elaborate about the Cantillon effect and how this would benefit Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general?
https://www.google.com/search?q="cantillon+effect"+bitcoin
https://www.google.com/search?q="nakamoto+effect"
1 hour ago, Cigarbutt said:Please elaborate (with in mind cryptocurrencies as a potential investment) how cryptocurrencies do not end up as creatures of the state?
laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
As opposed to what other investment?
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On 2/16/2024 at 9:43 AM, Gmthebeau said:
I still think there is say a 25% chance the FED will be forced to raise rates even higher.
In an election year?
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Great, great essay, but I'll probably wait and borrow from the library.
"Heart-wrenching" is a little much for me.
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1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think we get one more cycle starting this halving. BTC may go up to 200-300k as the FOMO will be more widespread, but still not driven by the institutional adoption. Then we'll come back down to 50-100k in one last shakeout and from there the adoption curve will really take off as 2-3 years will have passed.
Market cap will be sufficiently high to start accepting widespread inflows from retail and corporates. That'll drive the market high enough to allow for the entrants of countries/sovereign wealth/central banks.
Why would institutional adoption be so much slower than (surveyed) RIA adoption?
Especially the institutions that brought the ETFs forward?
Fidelity won't market its Bitcoin ETF as an advantage over Vanguard?
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1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think it'll just take more time.
Fair enough (shouldn't expect RIAs to be chomping at the bit in 60 days or whenever they can recommend an allocation), but a couple quarters of underperformance should encourage adoption, yeah?
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19 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think plenty of them will be cautious to buy if it has just gone up 50-100%.
I'd think they can't risk sitting out if it goes up another (well-publicized) amount?
As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance.
19 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:Also, plenty of firms/advisors are still not 'for' it despite the approval of BTC.
75% is more than sufficient.
But they'll ultimately respond to what their customers want. One way or another.
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4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think its going to take years.
Once investment advisors are cleared to recommend making bitcoin an allocation, there won't be a race to secure their clients that allocation?
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On 2/14/2024 at 7:04 PM, james22 said:
Thought there'd be more reaction to this?
RIAs manage $8T.
75% of them plan to allocate an average of 2.5% to the bitcoin ETFs.
That's $150B demand.
And doesn't include the wirehouses, regional broker-dealers, or institutions (Blackrock alone manages $9T).
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4 hours ago, Dinar said:
You can easily have a zero budget deficit in this country and real GDP 20-40% higher with reforms. The trouble is how are we going to get reforms?
1) School vouchers could probably cut the cost of public education in half, and 75% in NYC while improving quality.
2) Ending government guarantee of student loans which cost tens if not hundreds of billions per annum, and also are a drastic misallocation of resources.
3) Gut welfare/food stamps/section 8/public housing/medicaid, etc that cost federal government hundreds of billions per annum and destroy any incentive to work. This will also send millions of people into the labor force to do something productive.
4) Reform FEMA and similar agencies. There is no reason why people should get hundreds of thousands of dollars to live in paradise.
5) End foreign aid - why are we spending $100bn+ per annum on foreign aid?
6) Reform HB-1 visa programs - this program should exist only for truly outstanding people, so charge companies $50K per annum per employee. That way really valuable people will still get in, while people who are just cheaper than Americans and depress wages cannot come in.
7) Reform tax code - my proposal:
a) No deductions, period
b) First 50K of income is not taxable for individuals, first $100K not taxable for individuals with kids, first $100K not taxable for married filing jointly, first 200K not taxable for married filing jointly
c) 30% federal tax rate on earned income
d) 20% LTCG & dividends
e) End non-taxability of muni bonds
Yes, please.
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11 hours ago, crs223 said:
The CCP identified a housing bubble and intentionally popped it. The fact that CCP hasn’t pulled out the monetary or fiscal bazooka (or some other hair-brained hack) tells us that they are fine with the way this is playing out.
This is entertaining… blow up an obvious bubble and let the market sort it all out. In my lifetime these problems have always been “handled” by the Central Planners in DC
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BlackRock's portfolios might be getting more bitcoin in coming years.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income and head of global allocation, said the world's largest asset manager currently has a very small exposure to bitcoin. But he said that could change along with public attitudes.
"Time will tell whether it's gonna be a big part of the asset allocation framework," Rieder said on WSJ's Take On the Week podcast. "I think over time, people become more and more comfortable with it."
BlackRock recently launched a spot bitcoin fund that holds more than $3 billion of the cryptocurrency.
Rieder oversees a wide range of portfolios that manage the money of government pensions and retirement funds.
More from Rieder:
- "If there is more and more receptivity, now we have more vehicles that people can utilize to get more comfortable with owning it and buying it and selling it and liquidating it."
- "As you get more and more people that adopt it as an asset, we think the upside potential is real, which has been recognized recently."
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It's different this time.
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Gell-Mann Amnesia effect
1 hour ago, formthirteen said:IMO, ESG and DEI are noble causes ...
The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution.
IF the ETF approved, will you make Bitcoin a NEW position?
in General Discussion
Posted
As I believe I mentioned in the MSTR thread, maybe it helps to think of the ETF approval as the Bitcoin IPO? It was certainly uninvestable for me before then.
But even better, because we can see how it's performed despite the difficulty acquiring and holding, the off-putting cultism, the naive hype, the Fudd resistance, the threat of being outlawed, the bad actors, the fraud, etc. - all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt.