Rabbitisrich

I used to hold a fair amount of insurance companies and a big part of the thesis consisted of underlevered balance sheets, unused capacity, and aggressive buybacks (AFG, HCC, TRV). The trade-off is increasing yield piggishness.

Cool, thanks for the report and prospecting list, NormR.

Thanks for sharing. Interesting site too. I like his decomposition of employment-population and investment % of gdp by decade. As unfair as Krugman can be (most recently misrepresenting Steve Keen w/ no apology forthcoming) he has been pretty on the ball with bigwigs like Taylor and Fama.

It's interesting that the allegations against Gu Xilai begin with evidence gathered by Wang Lijun, the former police chief who visited the U.S. consulate. Chinese authorities did not autopsy Heywood, and they cremated his body within 36 hours of discovery. The reports of cyanide stem from Lijun's personal investigation within those 36 hours. Now "chinese officials" are leaking narratives about motivation and means. One often quoted "source", Wang Kang, is alternatively described as a "liberal academic", "well-connected businessman", and "film-maker" whose sources include "officials close to the case" and "family members of Bo Xilai". This case is reading like the annual report of a reverse merger company.

Why didn't you simply employ a Martingale strategy as described by David Choe on the Howard Stern show? I have cashed out my investment accounts and am heading to Macau to make serious +EV. Will keep everyone updated!

Alwaysinvert, have you circulated around various investment related conferences? Perhaps consider offering your free services to a reputable fund. It's an unorthodox path, but you have a rather unconventional story. It's a good way to network and even if you don't take a job with another firm, you at least introduce yourself to people who might be useful contacts in the future. You can invest from anywhere that offers an internet connection! Travel, eat great food, meet good folks, and develop your family office at your leisure.

That's why the term "family office" was created.

The relationship might be exaggerated because of the difference in scale between WSBASE and S&P 500 moves. The expansion of the WSBASE absorbs equity moves.

I've got a blind spot with options. With BAC warrants, I'm trying to get away from a habit of thinking categorically and more towards Ericopoly's review of payouts and implied leverage.

I'm definitely going to buy Garnaut's book. Of course, the essay is doesn't elaborate on sources of information but the narrative sounds like something pulled from The Three Kingdoms.

NO! Shortcuts lead to poor results or even worse...catastrophic decisions! Over time, all of the 10-K's you go through will create a significant base of knowledge for you to work with. You will get faster and faster, and out of habit, you will be able to go to exactly the areas you need to examine. But to put it as bluntly as I can, because it is for your own benefit and your future client's benefit: If you don't want to do the work, then it is not for you. Cheers! Also, in many cases the bull thesis is simple and, hopefully, rolls over nuance. The bulk of the work is finding the red flags and the questions for which you have no reasonable answers.

Holy crap, you were way ahead of the curve PlanMaestro! I didn't catch that post from 2010.

Does he really want to be anonymous? His attachment is still available in a recent thread. Nice chart and good summary, in any case.

He has some good tips and a warning about earn-out accounting: http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB50001424053111904646704577295943317169860-lMyQjA1MTAyMDMwMTEzNDEyWj.html?mod=barrons_share_email

I like Breaking Bad and watched Sopranos all the time. Mad Men is one of the most boring shows on television! ;D The Walking Dead seems to be moving away from the grimace fest it was under the previous showrunner. Parsad probably saw the Mad Men episode where Don reads 3 chapters from The Alchemy of Finance. Mad Men starts slow and builds steam throughout the season.

Wow, amazing pictures. Thanks for sharing.

Benmosche is showing capital allocation and negotiation skills that Moynihan still has to show. Both are great. Well, Moynihan will have his chance. For now, I'm happy for him to build up to a fortress balance sheet. I just wish he were a bit more charismatic -- more Dimon-like. But that's a very small criticism. Charisma is overrated in banking. Moynihan is setting a tone that the culture shifts are permanent, unlike another big bank CEO who talks about culture change, and then announces a system-wide ROA target. Shareholders are lucky to have both, but Benmosche is overseeing a massive turnaround while battling cancer! Amazing guy.

If you think that Schroeder offers considered analysis of Buffett, then Jeff Matthews may destroy your mind.

His investor letters are a study in courteously recommending questioners to F OFF.

Nevermind, I just got the ambiguity. Your interpretation includes the possibility that the ordinary dividend definition reverts to a simple regular dividend as soon as cumulative dividends pass $0.34 in a quarter. In other words, all it takes is one quarter at $0.35, and all future dividends, of any size, adjust the strike and shares issuable. Another source of ambiguity results from the terminologies, "in" and "any" If the ordinary dividend definition is knocked out after outlaying $0.34 "in" "any" quarter, that could mean that cumulative dividends are measured from ALL quarters subsequent to 10/28/10. Certainly, $0.10 from 1Q10 and $0.10 from 2Q10 sum to $0.20 from quarters. One challenge to this interpretation might be in the definition of "would" from "would constitute and ordinary dividend." Unfortunately, the environment from which "would" is drawn has not been explicitly defined. Would, as if $0.34 had not been breached? If not, then why doesn't the prospectus simply say "does" to show that the ordinary dividend definition still exists and applies?

Yeah, the prospectus is not vague on this point regarding cash dividends. It explicitly guides readers through the ordinary dividend impact of the numerator of the strike adjustment multiple. If we fix a record date for making a distribution to all holders of our common stock of securities, evidences of indebtedness, assets, cash, rights or warrants (excluding ordinary cash dividends (as defined below), dividends of our common stock and other dividends or distributions referred to in the preceding bullet point) such subtracted amount and/or fair market value, the “per share fair market value” In the case of adjustment for a cash dividend that is, or is coincident with, a regular quarterly cash dividend, the per share fair market value would be reduced only by the per share amount of the portion of the cash dividend that would constitute an ordinary cash dividend. “ordinary cash dividends” means a regular quarterly cash dividend on shares of our common stock out of surplus or net profits legally available therefor (determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in effect from time to time). Ordinary cash dividends will not include any cash dividends paid subsequent to October 28, 2008 to the extent the aggregate per share dividends paid on our outstanding common stock in any quarter exceed $0.34, as adjusted for any stock split, stock dividend, reverse stock split, reclassification or similar transaction. Where is the ambiguity? To the extent that regular dividends don't exceed $0.34, the strike adjustment multiple is 1.

What is the confusion? It's pretty clearly laid out in the definitions of ordinary cash dividend and fair market values of securities.

Looks like those guys even made money in 2009. The fair value measure is questionable given the premium over estimated forclosure sale proceeds. Foreclosure sales are much less annoying than short sales. What is the major advantage over the bank reducing principal? Perhaps the repurchase loan is at below market rates and terms. Maybe the bank accepts bids through the short sale process and only agrees to this project when conditions look poor.

Look at the last two sentences of your first quote.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2012/dud120319.html Moreover, the United States has experienced unusually mild weather over the past few months, with the number of heating degree days in January and February about 17 percent below the average of the preceding five years. While this reduces the amount that households and businesses must spend for heating, I suspect that it temporarily boosts economic activity overall. For example, the mild weather is certainly conducive to higher than normal levels of construction activity, and we did see a surge in hours worked in that sector over the past few months. Growth of final sales was actually quite weak. Historically, a quarter in which inventory investment makes a significant growth contribution is typically followed by a quarter in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. To put the recent pace of growth into perspective, we believe that the economy's long-run sustainable growth rate (what economists call the potential growth rate) is around a 2 1/4 percent annual rate. We need sustained growth above that rate to absorb the substantial amount of unused productive capacity. While the underlying core inflation rate, that strips out volatile food and energy prices, has been somewhat higher than expected a few months back, it appears that the annual rate of core inflation2 has peaked and we expect it to begin to decline later this year.