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lessthaniv

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Everything posted by lessthaniv

  1. They are, and for that reason I do not like the FFH pref's (and think it is smart of them to be selling). I wouldn't want to own a non-convertible perpetual preferred . . . but I believe we will see inflation. Holders of the Preferred Shares, Series K will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 5.00% annually for the initial five year period ending March 31, 2017. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the then current 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.51%.
  2. Normally Reuters is one of the few sites that will provide a time graph of a Canadian debenture. I wasn't able to locate Fortress Paper debentures there however. Is there a retail web site that will provide a time graph for a few years of trading on the debenture? You can get it from the exchange site: http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=FTP.DB
  3. PaperAge discusses the Fortress Paper venture and the convertible that partly finances it. They mention that "The cost structure of the LSQ Mill will be materially impacted by the ability of Fortress Global to upgrade the cogeneration facility and to service the facility through a long-term power supply agreement with Hydro Quebec on satisfactory terms." That's an awfully important variable, and it's a non trivial thing to implement. Shouldn't an investor here want to wait until that upgrade is finished and the agreement with Hydro Quebec is signed, on financial terms that meet the business plan's objectives? You can read back on the FTP Investment thread. Lot's of good information there. I posted this a while back: Current Sales Structure; 1) Capacity sold under 5 yr contracts @ floor of $1200 MT = 84,000MT 2) Capacity sold under 10 yr contracts @ (Rayon - $1000US) = 72,000MT 3) Capacity currently open for additional sales = 44,000MT 4) Current total production capacity = 200,000MT Now let’s make some assumptions based on company presented data and other info; 1) Dissolving Pulp prices drop to $950/MT 2) Current Excess capacity is sold at spot rates 3) Rayon contract gives us a $200/MT premium to spot 4) Pre-Cogen cash cost delivered to Shanghai = $720/MT 5) Post-Cogen cash cost delivered to Shanghai = $632/MT 6) Commission = 2% list price Weighted Sales/MT 42% @ $1200 = $504 36% @ $1150 = $414 22% @ $950 = $209 Weighted Average Sales Price/MT = $1127/MT Pre-Cogen Cost : Volume (MT) = 200,000MT Average Weighted Price ($) $1,127/MT Commission (2%) ($22.54)/MT Sales Price net of commission $1,104.46/MT Pre-Cogen EBITDA Contribution $81,400,000.00 Post-Cogen EBITDA Contribution $94,500,000.00 The pre-cogen operation will obviously have thinner margins but with the floor prices in place on close to 80% of their sales, they have lot's of margin of safety in my mind.
  4. Oh good, I didn't recognize the moniker so I was hoping as such!
  5. I laughed at the comment left by a poster below the article. Hopefully he/she was joking too.
  6. That's been on my "to read list" since it came out. I've been doing a low-carb paleo type diet for about 16 months now which is already a grain-free diet so I don't envision that reading it will change my mind on anything or change the way I am eating. There are definitely foods which are worse for you than others, contain more/worse anti-nutrients than others even within the category of grains. In my opinion wheat is probably the worst of the lot. Gluten is a poison for anyone, not just people who's doctor has told them that they are "gluten sensitive". Anyone and everyone who eats wheat would benefit to one extent or another from going wheat free, even if they made no other change to their eating. You basically have to stop eating processed foods to do this, because as you said there is gluten in all kinds of things. A close #2 on my list of foods to cut would be soy. This is another food that is in almost everything packaged or processed in anyway. Even "low-carb" processed junk like Atkins brand products contain soy. Yes, and what is comical (or rather sad) is the food industries answer to gluten-free products - Rice. For example, take pasta. Rice pasta is even worse on the glycemic index than regular pasta. So you are getting your gluten-free fix of pasta through a greater sacrifice of your overall health.
  7. FTP 6.5% 31Dec2016 convertible debenture. The conversion price will be $37.50 for each common share. But by the end of 2016 - both mills should be up and running producing lots of EBITDA. I'd expect the stock price to be significantly higher than the conversion price and you get paid while you wait for the new mills to be built. Trades at a bit of a premuim but think it's going much higher over the holding period. ;)
  8. I would recommend to anyone interested in proper nutrition - Read: "Wheat Belly" - by Dr. William Davis. My wife was diagnosed with Celiac Disease a few years ago. This is basically a gluten allergy. We were forced to learn about food and through our learning we have come to understand how much gluten has changed through the process of hybridization. A high insulin environment is ideal for creating fat. Any diabetic will tell you how hard it is to lose weight. Many diabetic actually have fat build up at the site where they regularly inject their insulin. Needless to say, one wants to monitor the food we eat to ensure that we are not creating insulin spikes. Most would know that drinking a Coke would spike one's insulin level. But did you know that whole wheat bread (glycemic index 72) increases blood sugar as much as or more than table sugar, or sucrose (glycemic index 59). The FDA food pyramid is a joke. It classifies things like rice, pasta and bread as grains leading people to believe they are healthy. However, once in your body these high glycemic foods convert to glucose and spike your insulin level. Just watch what happens to your blood sugar when you eat a bowl of pasta. Read a few labels tonight and you'll discover that gluten is in everything! Soy sauce, Westchester Sauce ... Since making changes in our diets we've gone from being active but overweight ... to competing in this years Tough Mudder. ;D
  9. Yes, I agree this is possible but at this stage I just don't carry much faith. Steelhead is clearly on the ABH side of the deal as dictated by their actions thus far. I think they got worried about the security commission hearing. I guess we agree that ABH will now take up the minority position. Steelheads actions are the key. If they tender to the ABH deal after the minimum tender offer, ABH will become a majority shareholder. A stage 2 offer would not likely come at a higher price because the Mercer offer is dead at that point. If Steelhead doesn't tender to ABH then I suspect ABH may have to come to the table with a higher number but given that Steelhead is clearly on the ABH side of this deal .... I guess we'll find out shortly. This is the language that concerns me: BELLEVUE, WA, March 31, 2012 /CNW/ - Steelhead Partners, LLC ("Steelhead") announced today that it has reserved its decision whether or not to tender shares of Fibrek, Inc. ("Fibrek") held by Steelhead Navigator Master, L.P. ("Steelhead Navigator") to the offer made by AbitibiBowater, Inc. doing business as Resolute Forest Products ("Resolute") until the minimum tender condition contained in the Resolute offer (as it may be amended) has been met. Steelhead has not yet made any decision or commitment to tender Steelhead Navigator's Fibrek shares to the Resolute offer should such condition be satisfied. Steelhead has not currently tendered Steelhead Navigator's shares to either the Resolute offer or to the competing offer of Mercer International Inc. ("Mercer"). Both Steelhead and Steelhead Navigator are independent parties in this matter. Steelhead Navigator is a shareholder of each of Fibrek, Mercer and Resolute. Steelhead's only goal has been to support the offer which creates the greatest possible value for Steelhead Navigator's investment. In evaluating any tender offer, Steelhead seeks to look past the cash price. Instead, Steelhead carefully examines the overall package of consideration offered and focuses on the potential synergies that will be created by the combined companies as the true drivers of long-term value. Steelhead expects that such an offer will have the support of a significant majority of Fibrek shareholders and will ultimately be successful. Steelhead Navigator holds 6,479,000 common shares of Fibrek, representing 4.98% of the outstanding shares. Steelhead Navigator's weighted average acquisition cost of its Fibrek common shares is $0.993 per share. Steelhead Navigator's weighted average acquisition cost for Fibrek common shares purchased subsequent to the announcement of the Resolute offer is $0.991 per share and the highest price paid was $1.02 per share.
  10. SD, we must have two very different sets of glasses we're wearing. If Steelhead is publicly saying they won't tender until the minimum condition is met, that probably means they are worried about the Quebec securities commission hearing on Monday. ABH has now dropped the minimum tender to be less than the amount of shares they currently have locked up. The outcome here is not that hard to figure out. It really never was. I think your perspective is blurred.
  11. possibly PR given the argument against them is that they are colluding with the other shareholder's and therefore should have made previous disclosures.
  12. So when it comes to natural gas I very uneducated on the issues but trying hard to catch myself up.... Can someone more knowledgeable provide me with the cliff notes or direct me to a resource that I read online? From everything that I've read it would seem the cost of producing 1000btu; From solar is $15 - $20 From nuclear is $8-$10 From fracking NG is about $4 On the shorter term the massive oversupply has caused prices to fall significantly but overseas prices are higher. If exports of LNG accelerate, domestic supply will be impacted moving gas prices up but not enough to make nuclear/solar competitive for some time. Possible regulation changes in regards to fracking may increase the cost per 1000btu but not significantly. Maybe $1-$2. It that about right?
  13. Remember they reduced their minimum tender to 50.1%. You may end up remaining a shareholder of FBK with a new majority owner. I would expect if they take up the 50.1% minimum they may try the offer again. With Steelhead shares I believe they have north of that.
  14. No idea about the pixel issue, Smazz. But if you're stuck you can have a look at the Microsoft Word Templates for invitations. You just download the template into the appropriate MS Office Program (ex; Word 2007) and away you go. Very easy, http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/templates/results.aspx?qu=invitations
  15. It sounds to me like Barry Critchley is being spoon fed by some FBK minority shareholders. Either that or he is an avid reader of the board! I note; the minimum tender reduction is only relevant if the warrants are ceased. So the court must overturn the recent decision to make this minimum tender change relevant. If the judges uphold the current ruling allowing the warrants - then it would appear to put a minimum price of $1.30 on the shares. The opportunity for an even higher price would still exist should ABH decide to up their bid seeking board approval so the warrants get bought back. They'd be out the break up fee. If on the other hand the judges overturn the lower courts ruling and side with ABH - I would expect the stock to see downside to $1. With the steelhead shares the ABH side would likely meet the minimum tender. Its a coin flip at this point.
  16. Minimum Tender dropped. __________________________ Resolute Reduces Minimum Tender Condition to 50.01% and Extends its Offer for Fibrek to April 2 Ticker Symbol: U:ABH C:ABH Resolute Reduces Minimum Tender Condition to 50.01% and Extends its Offer for Fibrek to April 2 Canada NewsWire MONTREAL, March 20, 2012 MONTREAL, March 20, 2012 /CNW Telbec/ - AbitibiBowater Inc., doing business as Resolute Forest Products ("Resolute") (NYSE: ABH) (TSX: ABH), today announced: it has extended the expiry time for its offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Fibrek Inc. (TSX: FBK) to 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, on April 2; it has amended the minimum tender condition to its offer by lowering the threshold from 66 2/3% to 50.01% of Fibrek shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis; and although Fibrek's authorization, issuance or sale of special warrants constitutes, or would constitute, a "Restricted Event" under the terms of Resolute's offer, the Company does not expect to invoke the "Restricted Event" provisions with respect to the special warrants if, at the expiry time: there is a decision of the Québec Court of Appeal reinstating the cease trade order with respect to the special warrants; and no special warrant is outstanding and the Fibrek shares issued on conversion thereof, if any, have been canceled. Assuming all the other conditions to Resolute's offer have been satisfied, at the expiry time on April 2, the Company will be able to take up all Fibrek shares deposited under its offer, provided that at that time at least 50.01% of the Fibrek shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis have been deposited and there is a cease trade order in effect relating to the special warrants. "Special warrants" refers to the Fibrek securities issuable to Mercer International Inc. (Nasdaq: MERC) (TSX: MRI.U) pursuant to a private placement disclosed by Fibrek and Mercer on February 10. The offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Fibrek made by Resolute, together with RFP Acquisition Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary, is more fully described in the offer circular and other ancillary documentation that Resolute filed on December 15, 2011, on the "SEDAR" website maintained by the Canadian Securities Administrators, as varied and extended. The offer will expire at 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on April 2, 2012, unless it is extended or withdrawn by Resolute. On March 20, approximately 60.3 million common shares of Fibrek had been deposited to Resolute's offer, representing approximately 46.4% of the outstanding common shares. Questions and requests for assistance or further information on how to tender Fibrek common shares to the offer should be directed to, and copies of the above referenced documents may be obtained by contacting, Georgeson at 1-866-598-0048 or by email at askus@georgeson.com. Important Notice This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation of any vote or approval. Resolute has filed with the SEC a registration statement on Form S-4, as amended, in connection with the proposed transaction with Fibrek. INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS OF RESOLUTE AND FIBREK ARE URGED TO READ THESE DOCUMENTS, AS WELL AS ANY AMENDMENTS OR SUPPLEMENTS THERETO, AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS FILED OR TO BE FILED WITH THE SEC CAREFULLY IN THEIR ENTIRETY IF AND WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION. Such documents are available free of charge through the web site maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov, by calling the SEC at telephone number 800-SEC-0330, on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or on Resolute's website at www.resolutefp.com. About Resolute Forest Products Resolute Forest Products is a global leader in the forest products industry with a diverse range of products, including newsprint, commercial printing papers, market pulp and wood products. The Company owns or operates 18 pulp and paper mills and 23 wood product facilities in the United States, Canada and South Korea. Marketing its products in more than 90 countries, Resolute has third-party certified 100% of its managed woodlands to sustainable forest management standards. The shares of Resolute trade under the stock symbol ABH on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange. Resolute and other member companies of the Forest Products Association of Canada, as well as a number of environmental organizations, are partners in the Canadian Boreal Forest Agreement. The group works to identify solutions to conservation issues that meet the goal of balancing equally the three pillars of sustainability linked to human activities: environmental social and economic. Resolute is also a member of the World Wildlife Fund's Climate Savers program, in which businesses establish ambitious targets to voluntarily reduce greenhouse gas emissions and work aggressively toward achieving them. Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-looking Information Statements in this press release that are not reported financial results or other historical information of AbitibiBowater Inc., doing business as Resolute Forest Products, are "forward-looking statements" and may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as the words "should", "would", "could", "will", "may", "expect", "believe", "anticipate", "attempt", "project" and other terms with similar meaning indicating possible future events or potential impact on Resolute's business or shareholders, including future operations following the proposed acquisition of Fibrek. The safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 do not apply to any forward-looking statements made in connection with an exchange offer. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are not guarantees of future performance. These statements are based on management's current assumptions, beliefs and expectations, all of which involve a number of business risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause Resolute's actual future financial condition, results of operations and performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied in this press release include, but are not limited to, Resolute Common Stock issued in connection with the proposed acquisition may have a market value lower than expected, the businesses of Resolute and Fibrek may not be integrated successfully or such integration may be more difficult, time-consuming or costly than expected, the possible delay in the completion of the steps required to be taken for the eventual combination of the two companies, including the possibility that approvals or clearances required to be obtained from regulatory and other agencies and bodies will not be obtained in a timely manner, disruption from the proposed transaction making it more difficult to maintain relationships with customers, employees and suppliers, and all other potential risks and uncertainties set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of Resolute's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011, filed with the SEC and Resolute's other filings with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities. All forward-looking statements in this press release are expressly qualified by the cautionary statements contained or referred to above and in Resolute's other filings with the SEC and the Canadian securities regulatory authorities. Resolute disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Contact: Investors Rémi G. Lalonde Vice President, Investor Relations 514 394-2345 ir@resolutefp.com Media and Others Xavier Van Chau Director, Communications and Corporate Social Responsibility 514 394-3611 xavier.vanchau@resolutefp.com
  17. Doesn't this remind you guys so much of the old Fairfax days when it traded under $100...and then took off. We were all watching it like this then too. Cheers! I miss bsilly!
  18. Had to laugh at this one: Bank of America's share price has plunged into the single digits Its credit rating, already downgraded to a few rungs above junk status, could plummet with the next bad analyst report, causing a frenzied rush to the exits by creditors, investors and stockholders – an institutional run on the bank. Yeah, nice timing!
  19. Matt Taibbi is taking a run at BAC this weekend. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/bank-of-america-too-crooked-to-fail-20120314
  20. What does RIA stand for? guessing .... Registered Investment Advisor
  21. Speaking of slimey, greaseball, scumbuckets ... did you read about Silvercorps lawsuit filed on the blunder from down under - John Hempton? The scuttlebutt is Howard Shapray, acting counsel to Silvercorp is an absolute animal. The biggest ass-kicker, take no prisoners lawyer in Vancouver. Have fun John.
  22. x2 I think people are forgetting where FBK was in early fall. You had $.70/share on the table, falling pulp prices and a management team that we've subsequently found out was looking to spend more shareholder capital and dilute your position for a questionable acquisition. Your current FBK management team is only now looking to create value by selling the assets because of the ABH offer. Without that offer I think it highly questionable whether or not you'd even have $.70/share right now.
  23. What makes you think they could do that? Page 28 of the Circular. We have the right to waive the Minimum Tender Condition and, if we were to do so, there can be no assurance that we would be able to successfully consummate a Second Step Transaction. Under the terms of the Offer, and subject to the terms and conditions of the Lock-up Agreements, we have the right to waive one or more of the conditions of the Offer, including the Minimum Tender Condition. In the event we were to decide to waive the Minimum Tender Condition and were to take up and pay for more than 50% of the Fibrek Shares, we may not be able to successfully consummate a Second Step Transaction or our ability to do so may be delayed. In addition, the market for Fibrek Shares not tendered in the Offer may be less liquid than the current market for Fibrek Shares and the Fibrek Shares may be potentially delisted from TSX. In such event, it is possible that Fibrek would become a controlled but not wholly-owned subsidiary of Resolute With Steelhead's buys and subsequent tender ... As of the close of business on February 23, 2012 approximately 67 million common shares of Fibrek had been deposited to Resolute's offer, representing approximately 51.5% of the outstanding common shares. If they wanted to play ball they could drop the minimum tender. Fairfax/Pabrai/Oakmont/Steelhead and anyone else that has tendered to make up the 51.5% would exit gracefully (Note: all are big holders of ABH already) and everyone else would be left scratching their heads.
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