lessthaniv

Finally, One last comment to highlight from Mercer's report: Mr. Lee continued: "In the short term, pulp prices have increased by approximately $20 per ADMT in China in February 2011 and producers have announced an increase of $30 per ADMT in selected markets to take effect in March 2011. Additionally, based on the most recently published data, NBSK producer inventories are around 25 days which generally signals strong demand." Inventories remain tight at 25 days. That should further support the NBSK pricing in the coming quarters. <IV

Last month (Jan 10) I posted a link to the CME - NBSK Future pricing. Below is a copy of the data as at Jan 10th. Then, I've followed that cut/paste with the current data for comparison. :o As posted on Jan 10; Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) › Food and Fiber › NORTHERN BLEACHED SOFTWOOD KRAFT PULP (WP) Market Contract Open High Low Last Change Pct Time WP.F11.E Jan 2011 (E) 905 905 905 940 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.G11.E Feb 2011 (E) 892 892 892 934 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.H11.E Mar 2011 (E) 878 878 878 930 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.J11.E Apr 2011 (E) 868 868 868 900 +1 +0.11% set 14:07 WP.K11.E May 2011 (E) 861 861 861 882 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.M11.E Jun 2011 (E) 856 856 856 871 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.N11.E Jul 2011 (E) 850 850 850 863 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Q11.E Aug 2011 (E) 845 845 845 857 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.U11.E Sep 2011 (E) 856 856 856 851 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.V11.E Oct 2011 (E) 851 851 851 846 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.X11.E Nov 2011 (E) 849 849 849 844 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Z11.E Dec 2011 (E) 847 847 847 843 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.F12.E Jan 2012 (E) 848 848 848 842 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.G12.E Feb 2012 (E) 847 847 847 841 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.H12.E Mar 2012 (E) 846 846 846 840 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.J12.E Apr 2012 (E) 845 845 845 839 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.K12.E May 2012 (E) 844 844 844 838 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.M12.E Jun 2012 (E) 843 843 843 837 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.N12.E Jul 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Q12.E Aug 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.U12.E Sep 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.V12.E Oct 2012 (E) 847 847 847 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.X12.E Nov 2012 (E) 846 846 846 835 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Z12.E Dec 2012 (E) 845 845 845 834 0 0.00% set 14:07 As of today; The long dated futures on NBSK have continued to rise. Here is an example of the 1 year: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_WP.G12.E Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) › Food and Fiber › NORTHERN BLEACHED SOFTWOOD KRAFT PULP (WP) Market Contract Open High Low Last Change Pct Time WP.G11.E Feb 2011 (E) 892 892 892 950 0 0.00% set 14:08 WP.H11.E Mar 2011 (E) 878 878 878 955 +5 +0.52% set 14:08 WP.J11.E Apr 2011 (E) 868 868 868 955 +5 +0.52% set 14:08 WP.K11.E May 2011 (E) 861 861 861 955 +5 +0.52% set 14:08 WP.M11.E Jun 2011 (E) 856 856 856 949 +6 +0.63% set 14:08 WP.N11.E Jul 2011 (E) 850 850 850 943 +6 +0.64% set 14:08 WP.Q11.E Aug 2011 (E) 845 845 845 939 +6 +0.64% set 14:08 WP.U11.E Sep 2011 (E) 856 856 856 936 +6 +0.64% set 14:08 WP.V11.E Oct 2011 (E) 851 851 851 932 +6 +0.64% set 14:08 WP.X11.E Nov 2011 (E) 849 849 849 929 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.Z11.E Dec 2011 (E) 847 847 847 926 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.F12.E Jan 2012 (E) 848 848 848 924 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.G12.E Feb 2012 (E) 847 847 847 921 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.H12.E Mar 2012 (E) 846 846 846 919 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.J12.E Apr 2012 (E) 845 845 845 917 +6 +0.65% set 14:08 WP.K12.E May 2012 (E) 844 844 844 915 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.M12.E Jun 2012 (E) 843 843 843 913 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.N12.E Jul 2012 (E) 843 843 843 912 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.Q12.E Aug 2012 (E) 843 843 843 911 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.U12.E Sep 2012 (E) 843 843 843 910 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.V12.E Oct 2012 (E) 847 847 847 909 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.X12.E Nov 2012 (E) 846 846 846 908 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.Z12.E Dec 2012 (E) 845 845 845 907 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 WP.F13.E Jan 2013 (E) 906 906 906 906 +6 +0.66% set 14:08 All quotes are exchange delayed. For charts, options, and latest headline news, click on the market name.

Every dog has its day, Dawg. US NBSKP – The tightness of the BSKP market shows also in the US market, especially as the shipments of market pulp to North America were good in December, up 10.6% for the month – against December 2009 – and by 5.7% for the year as a whole. At least two major producers have separately announced price initiatives from March 1 on the US market, both by 30 USD/ton. Our PIX NBSKP US index moved up by 49 cents, or by 0.05%, and closed at flat 960.00 USD/ton. From Risi; BRUSSELS , Feb. 15, 2011 (RISI) - Sweden's Billerud has informed clients that it will raise its price for northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp in Europe by $30/tonne, effective March 1.

"Regarding NBSK: A WSJ article today that was rather bullish (Global Pulp: Softwood Price Outlook Firming ... by Lester Aldrich) http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110208-712982.html" The link doesn't work but I was able to get the "cached" webview. By Lester Aldrich Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--The world outlook for softwood pulp prices is firming as traders come to grips with an improving global economy and rising paper demand coupled with a lack of fresh production prospects. Andrew Shapiro, president of Lawndale Capital Management, said the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market shows a significant flattening of closing futures prices from a month ago and even from a week ago. The industry is expecting more price strength through the year, he said. Many traders expected to see prices strengthen this year, but the improvement is greater than they predicted, Shapiro said. If the trend continues, the market could see the price curve in futures move to show expected price gains for softwood pulp through the year, Shapiro said. North American pulp producers are working $20-per-metric-ton list price increases for Northern Bleached Softwood Pulp going to China, and Mark Wilde, market analyst at Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed comment that spot prices for NBSK in China are up $30 a ton from a month ago. Further gains over the short term, however, will depend largely on the level of demand in China after the Chinese New Year and world inventories reported by the Pulp and Paper Products Council in late February, Wilde said. The current softwood demand picture in China looks like it is moving upward, though, with reports of rising list prices by Chinese producers and some substitution to NBSK from dissolving pulp by Chinese buyers. The latest figures from China Customs show that total imports in December were up 1.3% from November, as gains in softwood imports overcame declines in hardwood pulp imports. China Customs also said December softwood pulp imports were 52.3% higher than a year earlier as hardwood pulp imports declined 21.0% for an overall increase of 11.4%. However, 2010 pulp imports by China were down 18.8%, led by a 25.6% dip in hardwood pulp, which eclipsed a 16.2% decline in softwood imports, China Customs said. Meanwhile, global trade in wood chips was up 25% in 2010 because of increased production of pulp and paper products worldwide, Hakan Ekstrom, market analyst at Wood Resources International LLC, said in a weekly commentary. China showed the greatest growth in wood-chip imports with a more-than-fivefold increase in the last two years. Australia continued to be the major exporter and shipped 11% more in 2010 than in the previous year. Wood chips are the basic ingredient in pulp, which is made into paper. Softwood chips are the premier product since their longer fibers produce a stronger product. Shapiro said the softwood pulp is of greater importance as world paper demand grows since the paper from all-hardwood pulp is softer and weaker, requiring a mix of hard and soft wood pulps just to prevent it from tearing in the paper-making machines as well as for making a higher-quality paper. Softwood pulp is of even greater importance now since there is no new production that can be brought on line to augment current production, Shapiro said. Finland's index provider FOEX this week reported its U.S. list price index for Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft pulp was $959.51 a metric ton, unchanged from a week earlier and $7.60 below Jan. 1. FOEX also reported its index for European NBSK list pulp prices was down $0.31 from a week earlier at $949.08 a ton, which is $0.13 below the level of Jan. 1. In addition, FOEX reported its European list price index for Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp was down $0.38 at $848.35 a ton, or $0.81 above the level of Jan. 1 Pulpandpaper.net reported northern bleached softwood kraft pulp at $940 to $960 a ton as of Feb. 1, unchanged from a month earlier. Bleached eucalyptus pulp was listed at $830 to $850 a ton, also flat with a month earlier. In Europe, Pulpandpaper.net reported NBSK pulp at $940 to $950 a ton on Jan. 1, unchanged from a month earlier. Eucalyptus pulp was listed at $658 a ton, up $16 from December. -By Lester Aldrich, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5179; lester.aldrich@dowjones.com

The overhang (250,000 on the ask) either pulled the order or was filled earlier. Regardless, its gone from the que now. ;D

TNT, 290K of those shares appear to be staggered trades all originating from one dealer (TD Securities). 50,000 @ $1.36 100,000 @ $1.37 129,700 @ $1.38 The orders were all entered a few minutes apart. This looks and smells like one entity making the trades perhaps over multiple accounts. (RRSP,Cash, etc). I wouldn't read anything into this. Remove those asks from the que and its status quo. We are talking about a very small piece of the pie here.

Very Interesting presentation. I summarizes well, many of the things that I've been thinking about lately. Thanks for posting the link.

I believe he was in his mid 70's.

Yes, I was fortunate enough to have lunch with him a few years back. One of the more memorable lunches I've had!

I understand that the world has lost another great individual - Peter Cundill has passed away. My thoughts go out to his friends and family! <IV

For this quarter ... Actually, what's nice is the TTM numbers will finally change and go positive. That awful Q4/09 will come off and be replaced by a much better Q4/10.

The longer dated futures for NBSK have all taken a nice upward move over the last 6 months. For example, the Dec - 2011 contract was being priced around $750 in July,2010. It's now moved up to $843. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_WP.Z11.E The Dec, 2012 contracts are price at $835 http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_WP.Z12.E Sure looks like pricing has stabilized for the time being. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) › Food and Fiber › NORTHERN BLEACHED SOFTWOOD KRAFT PULP (WP) Market Contract Open High Low Last Change Pct Time WP.F11.E Jan 2011 (E) 905 905 905 940 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.G11.E Feb 2011 (E) 892 892 892 934 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.H11.E Mar 2011 (E) 878 878 878 930 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.J11.E Apr 2011 (E) 868 868 868 900 +1 +0.11% set 14:07 WP.K11.E May 2011 (E) 861 861 861 882 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.M11.E Jun 2011 (E) 856 856 856 871 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.N11.E Jul 2011 (E) 850 850 850 863 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Q11.E Aug 2011 (E) 845 845 845 857 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.U11.E Sep 2011 (E) 856 856 856 851 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.V11.E Oct 2011 (E) 851 851 851 846 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.X11.E Nov 2011 (E) 849 849 849 844 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Z11.E Dec 2011 (E) 847 847 847 843 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.F12.E Jan 2012 (E) 848 848 848 842 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.G12.E Feb 2012 (E) 847 847 847 841 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.H12.E Mar 2012 (E) 846 846 846 840 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.J12.E Apr 2012 (E) 845 845 845 839 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.K12.E May 2012 (E) 844 844 844 838 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.M12.E Jun 2012 (E) 843 843 843 837 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.N12.E Jul 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Q12.E Aug 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.U12.E Sep 2012 (E) 843 843 843 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.V12.E Oct 2012 (E) 847 847 847 836 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.X12.E Nov 2012 (E) 846 846 846 835 0 0.00% set 14:07 WP.Z12.E Dec 2012 (E) 845 845 845 834 0 0.00% set 14:07

Barry Minow just had his head handed to him in the case of Lennar vs Minkow et al.... Fairfax/Overstock shareholders will be familiar with these names. Sam Antar/ Tracy Coenen both get dishonorable mentioned! (See facts 9,11,40 in the order). The following are two links to the order granting Lennar's motion for various sanctions against Minkow. These guys are sick.

http://www.risiinfo.com/pulp-paper/news/Canfor-Pulp-hikes-January-NBSK-pulp-prices-10tonne-across-Asia-USA-Europe-flat.html Canfor Pulp hikes January NBSK pulp prices $10/tonne across Asia; USA, Europe flat "SAN FRANCISCO , Jan. 4, 2011 (RISI) - Canfor Pulp informed customers across Asia that it would increase prices on northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp by $10/tonne, effective Jan. 1 until further notice, RISI has learned."

That very interesting - I didn't realize that NBSK was being added to dissolving pulp for rayon production. Dissolving pulp prices are quite lofty so it makes sense. I'll have to learn more about this. Thanks. Steady demand and falling Eastern wood chip prices is a great combination. Let's hope it stays for a while.

I think that discussion was about dissolving pulp not NBSK? Here is an article I've come across discussing the costs of wood chips in Eastern Canada vs. Western Canada. http://www.ihb.de/wood/news/wood_chip_pulp_25115.html Canadian wood chip market December 22, 2010 For most of the past 20 years, pulpmills in Western Canada have had lower wood fiber costs than pulpmills in the Eastern provinces. One year ago, pulp manufacturers in British Columbia paid almost C$60/odmt less for softwood chips than did pulp mills in Ontario and Quebec, and five years ago the difference was almost C$100/odmt, according to the North American Wood Fiber Review. Because wood costs account for almost 50 percent of the production costs for Canadian pulp mills, companies in Eastern Canada have been at a competitive disadvantage to many other mills, not only in other regions of Canada, but throughout North America. Pulp mills in Ontario and Quebec have consistently had some of the highest wood fiber costs in North America. However, prices have fallen lately; softwood chip prices have declined ten percent over the past 12 months and they were 25 percent lower in the 4Q/10 than five years ago. Prices are currently the lowest they have been in this region in over ten years. In US dollar terms, wood costs in Eastern Canada are now lower than most countries in Europe, as reported in the Wood Resource Quarterly. In the 3Q, wood chip prices in Western Canada increased again due to their formulaic tie to market pulp prices. However, they did not go up as dramatically on a quarter-by- quarter basis as they did from 1Q to 2Q earlier this year. The latest uptick resulted in prices at levels not seen since 2001. Pulp mills in the region currently have some of the highest chip prices in North America. With NBSK pulp prices now beginning their descent; softwood chip prices will follow downward in the coming quarters. Despite a price decline in Eastern Canada and an increase of almost 40 percent in one year in the West, pulp mills in British Columbia continue to have lower wood fiber costs than mills in the eastern provinces of the country. (Wood Resource Quarterly)

Redacted Motion: http://www.overstock.com/REDACTED_motion.pdf Redacted Declaration: http://www.overstock.com/downloads/pdf/REDACTED_declaration.pdf Read through these and you'll get the gist of what its all about. They are adding a single claim against Goldman & Merrill under New Jersey RICO (like Fairfax) - Treble damages. Makes you wonder what all those blacked out parts are all about, huh! <IV

tnp20 posted something in the investment ideas section that may help explain it ... http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=6468&mn=14949&pt=msg&mid=9843195

Canfor is scheduled to convert to a corporation on Jan 1/2011. They still haven't announced their distribution policy yet. The stock has taken a bit of a tumble as of late as the markets seem to expect a significant cut. I wonder if a cut in distribution (although it will still be decent) will entice some investors to sell CFX in favor of FBK's valuation?

Google has launched their book service with over 3 million titles. I took the liberty of searching for WEB books on the link provided however you can search for any topic that revs your motor. Here is the link that has been screened for WEB books that you can preview online! I don't think you can get the entire book but you can certainly get very useful chunks. I just found a beauty on fly fishing that I've wanted for some time. http://www.google.com/search?tbs=bks%3A1&tbo=1&q=coquihalla&btnG=Search+Books#sclient=psy&hl=en&tbo=1&tbs=bks:1%2Cbkv%3Ap&q=warren+buffett&aq=f&aqi=g5&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&pbx=1&fp=44253eb2e797c355 Merry Christmas! <IV

Best advice I've ever received on reading 10-k's is to read them back to front. Start by reading the notes thoroughly. That's where most of "small print" exists. Once you understand what's buried in the notes, then read the rest of the report keeping in mind what you've learned from the notes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Online-Holiday-Sales-Surge-In-ibd-2268996624.html?x=0&.v=1 On Friday November 26, 2010, 7:14 pm EST Online retailers won't have to eat any crow with their leftover turkey this year. Consumers didn't wait for Thanksgiving dinner before logging on to get an early start on what's expected to be a record year for online holiday spending. U.S. online sales on Thanksgiving jumped 33% over last Turkey Day, says John Squire, chief strategy officer for Coremetrics, a Web analytics, research and consulting firm. "This year's buying started much earlier in the day, and it came back really strong later in the afternoon," he said. "It tells us that consumers are responding to the deals that retailers have put out there, and they are open to buying and shopping on Thanksgiving." With retailers aggressively pushing Black Friday discounts for nearly a week before the actual day, online holiday buying is picking back up after two years of slower-than-normal single-digit growth, says Fiona Dias, executive vice president for strategy and marketing at GSI Commerce (NMS:GSIC), which powers the Web sites of more than 100 retailers. Easy To Compare Prices Consumers "want to price-shop and reduce their impulse buys, and the best way to do that is to come online because there are plenty of avenues where you can compare prices," Dias said. Coremetrics says the average U.S. order on Thanksgiving Day rose 14%, from $159.81 to $182.74, in 2009. "It tells you people are willing to spend this holiday season," Squire said. "The $64 billion question for retailers: Will this sustain itself?" Black Friday U.S. online spending, however, was flat through 10 a.m. EST compared with the year-earlier period, according to Coremetrics. Global payment volume on Pay-Pal, a leading online payment service, increased 25% both on Thanksgiving Day vs. the same day a year ago, and on Black Friday through 2 p.m. EST. Thursday's figure is up from 15% growth on Thanksgiving Day 2008, but down from 42% growth last year. Amanda Pires, a spokeswoman for eBay-owned (NMS:EBAY) PayPal, couldn't explain last year's big jump, other than to note that its 90 million active accounts include much of the world, so other factors could have been in play. As for customers in countries that do celebrate the holiday, "Thanksgiving Day is becoming a mainstream shopping day," Pires said. "Everybody is off work and there is only so much turkey you can eat and football you can watch." PriceGrabber.com would agree. U.S. traffic to the online comparison-shopping site jumped 24% on Thanksgiving vs. a year ago, as consumers sought the best deals among the 11,000 retailers on the site, says PriceGrabber President Laura Conrad. Friday Promos Aided Thursday "All of the big promotions that the online retailers are doing and the money being spent on promotions for Black Friday were definitely having an effect on Thanksgiving Day," Conrad said. Overstock.com (NMS:OSTK) hit a record $1 billion in gross sales for 2010 as of early Wednesday, "even before Thanksgiving," said President Jonathan Johnson. The online seller recorded gross sales of $967 million for all of 2009 and $914 million in 2008. Sales and traffic for Thanksgiving and early Black Friday exceeded last year's numbers, Johnson says, though he wouldn't reveal specific numbers. The site sells excess and overstocked inventory from retailers and manufacturers. "People have been looking all year for ways to stretch their nickels in this economy, and Overstock is a great place to discount-shop," Johnson said.Analysts are bullish about this year's yuletide online shopping season. U.S. online sales in November through December will rise 16% from the year-ago period to $51.7 billion, says Forrester Research. That's up from 8% growth in 2009 and 5% in 2008. Many shoppers prefer online to offline, says Forester analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. "More people know they can shop online and get great deals and not have to fight the crowds to get them," she said. Consumers also seem willing to shell out for more expensive items. In the second week of November, U.S. online jewelry sales doubled from the year-earlier week, and they rose 260% for the first week of November, says Coremetrics, which didn't yet have more recent figures. It seems sales of other luxury items, such as designer clothes and handbags, are also up this year. It's a behavioral shift from last year, says Ed Foy Jr., CEO of eFashionSolutions, which manages Web sites for 30 fashion brand companies. "The consumer is really going after high-quality, durable, long-lasting products, so it's a greater spend than last year," he said.

And they've gone out on a limb and raised their target price to $1 from $0.90. Let the good times roll! Interesting move, actually. They just downgraded FBK a couple weeks ago. I wonder why the upgrade now, since nothing material has changed except that the macro situation looks even muddier. Not that a target change from .90 to 1 is material anyway... did you read the disclosures carefully? maybe they have a new investment banking relationship! lol ;D

This is completely unrelated to investments but I thought most folks would appreciate it. If you haven't seen this yet, do check it out. The new arena in Pittsburgh has a huge mosaic of Mario Lemieux made up from pictures sent in by the fans. The following website will show you the mosaic but it also allows you to pan in on the individual pictures that make up the entire mosaic. It really is unbelievable how they have done this. :o http://www.mariomosaic.com/mosaic/ <iv

At first I thought that Fibrek was being really pissy with that guy -- asking him where he's from, and if he's an analyst etc. But then he asked his questions and I thought "what a moron". FYI: Raymond James downgraded Fibrek today. Their old target price (as of Sept 23) was .90 so I'm curious to know if they've gone even lower. I suppose this may explain some of the slide as well. If you have the Raymond James report handy (anyone) I would love to read their comments. I can send my email by PM. Thanks