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VersaillesinNY

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Posts posted by VersaillesinNY

  1. More blood down the road part II. (AR attached)

     

    These ex-Fairholme fund guys opened their spin-off fund at the wrong time and placed too many wrong bets.

    The result is a permanent loss of capital and investors flying through the exit door.

    It’s going to be hard to make it back.

     

    “Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.”

    Ben Graham’s quoting the Roman poet Horace in Security Analysis

    GoodHaven_2015_Annual_Report.PDF

  2. Great minds think alike. At a recent conference, Wilbur Ross started his presentation quoting the same Mark Grant’s story about Greece:

     

    "It is a slow day in a little Greek Village. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

     

    On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

     

    The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

     

    The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.

     

    The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the taverna.

     

    The publican (tavern manager) slips the money along to the local lady of the night drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

     

    The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note.

     

    The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything.

     

    At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town. No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how any new Greek bailout package is likely to work."

     

  3. More blood down the road.

     

    GoodHaven semi-annual report 2015

     

    The last twelve to eighteen months have been a different story. We

    underperformed large cap equity indexes by a sizeable margin and had negative

    absolute returns last year for a variety of reasons – most discussed at length in our

    Annual Report of November 2014. As equity indexes climbed higher, momentum driven

    investors turned their backs and our reputation flagged. We never like going

    through such periods but recognize they are inevitable, have experienced them before,

    and know they are not a reason to become despondent. Following a weak three

    months after the end of the fiscal year, it appears that February marked our recent low

    point – since then we have begun to regain some absolute and relative ground.

    GoodHaven_2015_Semi-Annual_Report.pdf

  4. Wow, this guy is a legend and he is pushed to the exit for lagging the benchmark during the last 5 years.

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/mobius-to-step-down-as-lead-manager-of-templeton-emerging-trust

     

    "The fund has declined 0.3 percent annually over the past five years, compared with a gain of 1.9 percent in its benchmark"

     

    Mark Mobius, star developing markets manager, stumbles

     

    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150506/FREE/150509946/mark-mobius-star-developing-markets-manager-stumbles 

  5. Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.

    Bill Gates

     

    Experience is a comb that life gives to you when you have become bald.

    Ringo Bonavena

     

    Sex: the thing that takes up the least amount of time and causes the most amount of trouble.

    John Barrymore

     

    A friend is one who sees through you and still enjoys the view.

    Wilma Askinas

  6. Find attached a contrarian view on investing in Russia from Kopernik Global investors (1.5 Billion AUM).

     

    Russia - It’s not me, it’s you

     

    “Why would you have any money invested in Russian stocks?”

    “Why are you so bullish on Russia?”

    “Don’t you think Russia is risky?”

    “Is Russia un-investable?”

    “Are the risks there too murky and complex to even assess?”

    “Are there risks there that are unknowable?”

    Kopernik_Perspective_-_Russia_FINAL.pdf

  7. Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.

    Baron de Rothschild

     

    The five most expensive words in investing are, this time it is different.

    John Templeton

     

    The trade has increased so much over the last five years that everybody is now involved: women, old people, even children.

    De la Vega - Confusion de Confusiones

     

    The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.

    Richard Feynman

     

    The greatest enemies of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.

    Stephen Hawking

     

  8. This thread reminds me a good story on Finland's kids accounts  ;D.

     

    To Find Insider Trading, Follow The Kids' Money

     

    http://www.npr.org/2013/04/09/176579895/to-find-insider-trading-follow-the-kids-money

     

    [RESEARCHERS have discovered the investment accounts of extremely young Finns tended to have surprisingly good returns. Intrigued, they looked closer at their stock market trades and came to the conclusion that some of these accounts were being used for illegal insider trading.

     

    The study was undertaken by Henk Berkman of the University of Auckland, Paul D. Koch of the University of Kansas and P. Joakim Westerholm of the University of Sydney Business School. It is planned to be published in the Journal of Finance.

     

    The researchers studied the activity of half a million stock market accounts between the periods of 1995 and 2010. They specifically chose Finland for their study because of the great detail held by the clearing house Euroclear Finland.

     

    “We were very surprised when we first found this evidence,” Koch told the American broadcaster National Public Radio. “We were not looking for the result we found. The group from age zero to ten seemed to outperform all the others.”

     

    The unusually prescient trades were not made by the children themselves; instead they were almost certainly made by their parents.

     

    “Guardians are willing to trade on behalf of their children to earn these extraordinary returns,” Koch continued. “But they’re reticent to trade through their own accounts. One reason would be a fear of getting caught breaking an insider trading law.”

     

    Individuals who are privy to inside information know their own investments are closely monitored. A supposed way to get around this is to trade on accounts that are not in their own names, such as accounts set up for their children.]

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