John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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I think making those returns without significant leverage and with an adequate margin of safety, and sticking to companies that themselves have little net debt that might juice their ROE but might also put the company at risk in the long run.
CHTR
Pretty much all Liberties (LSXMA/SIRI/LBTYA/LILA)
GM
Airlines
I am sure I am missing some more... http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=brk
Care to comment? 8)
Not trying to pull the mic out of Dynamic's hands here, but
Mr. Buffett loves leverage - it's the paint he has used on his brush to paint the picture he has called Berkshire.
Preferences [ranked]:
1. Insurance float
2. Deferred taxes to Uncle Sam
3. Stable bank customer deposits carrying no or low interest
4. Berkshire notes - with no covenants.
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DooDiligence,
I'm guessing and speculating here, so - I'll give a shot:
There is a story somewhere on here from Sanjeev a few years back, that the board got a bit overheated in some topic. Some board members started a fist fight using their keyboards [politics, taxes, some election? lol].
Sanjeev had to step in to avoid a nuclear melt down of the board [lol again].
Sanjeev then wrote, that Eric got angry and left the board, most likely also deleting his account in anger.
Sanjeev asked Eric to come back, which Eric did.
When someone on here deletes his account, his posts stay on board - no big holes in topics by that. And the deleted users accounts board handle goes from the member user group to the guest user group. CoBF is set up, so that guests can't post. The point here is that the board handle is taken in eternity, also for deleted accounts. [i.e. There will never on this board be any other DooDiligence than you].
I guess that:
ericopoly is Eric posting before he got angry.
ERICOPOLY is Eric posting after he came back.
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I'll get a good laugh out this guess, if it actually turns out to be right.
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I'm not in one or the other camp here.
Personally, in reality, I think all fellow board members so far active in this topic - in principle - actually agree.
It's all about personal judgement about how will this play out going forward, and at the same time everybodys front screen is foggy, and personal judgements about opportunity costs, ref. Uccmals post including those considerations.
Yesterday, I actually found a piece - at least in my opinion - worth a read - if your thoughts are circling this issue/topic:
That piece is called "Capitulation":
I will just here lay out with the cons of this piece:
1. You can't buy it in physical form anywhere - It's existence is only digital - at least as far as I know - I might be wrong about that, however.
The pros:
2. You don't need it in physical form, [because you have already access to it, ref. below].
3. It's free - for you.
4. Yoy can do with it whatever you like - absolutely no strings attached. You can read it and disagree with it - thereby ditching it, you can ignore it, or you can read it, and try to - somehow - swollow and absorb it. It's all up to yourself. [Great - right?!]
5. It's actually just now right in front of your nose.
6. It's a great read, if you do your very best.
7. It's "publishing on demand" - no lead time between the authors thinking and writing the stuff, and publishing - meaning absolutely no hindsight bias in the situation - there is a time stamp on everything.
8. It's a product of team work among fellows in the same situation - basically - so it contains shades of perceptions of the situation - thereby increasing its value.
Warning:
9. It requires a fair amount of work to digest this thing the right way, based on situational awareness.
Teaser:
It's not capitulation until people stop asking if it's capitulationn.Long story short: - It's just great stuff - You find it here .
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It's not totally clear for me scrutinising the table of content, compared with a page in the book describing some of the newest editions of the book. The former editions are described as having themes. It's not obvious to me, that some of those former themes are actually still there in the 2017 edition.
Mr. Kilpatricks e-mail adress is actually in the book. I will write to him and hope for a reply, and eventually get back about his response here, if I get one.
Personally, I think he could on running basis sell much more copies of former editions, if he wanted to, and if there are ommisions in new editions compared to the last.
Then he should just use www.lulu.com, like Max on here with the Berkshire Shareholder Letter compilations. Perhaps he can't do or don't want that because of his agreement with his publisher.
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This book is simply my new blanket!
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I understand, Liberty,
There is always a risk participating in building a biography of you, if you at the same time try to be protective towards your dear ones and the biography also covers your own interactions in the past with your dear ones. Perhaps this is both about his relation to his late mother and his first marriage.
I hope the book will tell me something about it.
Thanks.
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Thanks, Liberty,
Yes, I got the impression, that the book was so, by reading the earlier posts in this topic. It also seems evident from the content of this topic, that Alice Schroeder - and Mr. Buffet himself - actually have put a lot of Kjoules into the book.
What a bummer ... To get turned down by Carol Loomis on a book with his active participation, and then ending with being disappointed with the outcome of the cooperation on a book with Mrs. Schroeder.
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Don't worry too much about this going forward, DooDiligence.
Last night I had the opportunity to read the 2067 Berkhire Shareholder Letter.
I get the impression, that there is basically no conference calls left to listen to, only one set of 10Qs and 10Ks and Annual Report to read yearly. Only people at that time in future reading history books about business know about the concept of conference calls. Same goes with the concept of guidances.
That year - 2067 - Berkshire acquires the Vatican State - so from then on the Pope is officially a renter - reporting directly to Mr. Buffett. However there will still be black and white smoke when Buffett appoints a new Pope, I suppose. The principle of delegation of repsonsibility to the CEOs at the subs is fully intact.
The material change between now and 2067 is that at one point in time in future, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger had an important telephone conversation on the topic : "succession", because they were so fed up with answerering questions about that topic from reporters, that they made a quick decision to get cloned - a dozen clones each.
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I'm bumping this topic up, because it is definitely worth it, in my humble opinion.
I received my copy of the 2017 Edition a few days ago, and I just have to say - already - after having read only a few pages - that this book - for long term Berkshire investors - like mentioned now more than 5 years ago in this topic by Sanjeev - is a "must have" thing.
It's an overwhelming experience for me reading this book.
It's not just "a book" in its ordinary and normal meaning. It's a screen shot of a long term ongoing book project, based on sincere interest and dedication from Mr. Kilpatrick - almost bordering to some kind of obsession - in a positve way.
Most likely it will be autumn before I have finished reading this gem.
Thank you to marlin, longinvestor and Sanjeev for guiding me in the direction of this book.
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I just ordered the book, and I look forward to the read. I hope to learn something from it. I have been looking at this Scandinavian bank for several monhts now, without holding it directly - so far.
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I ordered the book yesterday, and I look forward for the read of it.
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The book/brick just arrived here at 03:45 pm. That was fast, thinking about it got shipped from the US. ETA was 6th May or so. The UPS guy gave it to me with both hands, I received it with one hand - and I almost dropped the package, because of the weight! lol!
This damn thing will for sure keep me away from more stupid trades for some time!
Ohh, and I forgot to tell the Ruler of the House about my new aqusition... She's downtown shopping right now - actually perfect timing by randomness - ... if she has spent some money!
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Very weird to read this topic - somehow,
No matter how you model this [Excel or I do not know what],basically it all depends on what you do retire. I can't imagine anyone on this board disagreeing with me on this.
It all comes back to - investing - again! - Old or not!
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...With that being said, unless you really hate your job, it's not bad to work - just don't do it only because of the money.
Why else?
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Uccmal,
Good to have you back posting - I have missed your posts recently, holding me in check.
Have you considered, to which degree your original post in this topic is based on your own actual leverage?
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Sarcasm. Totally fine with the decision. Nevertheless, thanks for the mental support!
Personally, I love when fellow board members are bragging about their realized profits. It's almost - only almost - as good as realized profits of your own!
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Obviously a horrible decision.
You have done extremely well on this play, writser. Not the time to look back.
Edit:
That's actually a return of your cash allocated to this deal - from what you have posted here - of 55,591 per cent per year ex fees. To comparison, I made 299 per cent in two weeks and a day on my INVE A.STO trade ex fees.
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Sold a lot of INVE A.STO today at SEK 400, rolling the position back to full long term position.
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Sold a lot of INVE A.STO today at SEK 400, rolling the position back to full long term position - some client at ABN AMRO has been buying like crazy today. 5.9 percent gain in 15 days.
No more fooling around - now back to investing.
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Considering that pretty much all my Euro stocks are +4-5% today, I think you have French to thank for your trading hubris.
Exactly, but anyway not. By that , I suppose, that you measure your day-today return is measured for you in USD by your broker.
Yes. I haven't looked at what currencies did.
Actually lot today, Jurgis. - All those moving wheels!
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Considering that pretty much all my Euro stocks are +4-5% today, I think you have French to thank for your trading hubris.
Exactly, but anyway not. By that , I suppose, that you measure your day-today return is measured for you in USD by your broker.
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Exactly two weeks ago I posted on this board:
INVE A.STOA lot of it, this morning, as a trade on the 1st quarter 2017 reporting for Investor AB with regard to reported Net Asset Value end of March 2017, where I expect a material increase, perhaps as much as SEK 30B, primarily related to wholly owned Mölnlycke. 1st quarter report will be out 24th April at 12:00 CET.
If interested, please take a look at the powerpoints in the clip from the Investor AB Capital Market Day held in Stockholm on 30th March 2017, especially the powerpoints at the 0:40:38 mark. [You can see the powerpoints if you do not run the clip in full screen mode, and you can navigate the clip by just clicking on the powerpoints.]
I will roll the position back to full long term position, with proceeds back in to cash, no later than end May this year.
Perhaps the conglomarate discount on Investor will just increase materially. I will for sure find out.
It was a "reporting bet" - exactly 2 weeks ago - nothing expected to be changed - except reporting.
What has happened? :
INVE A has moved from SEK 177.90 to SEK 196.90, within exatly two weeks - that's a 183,47 percent gain - on annual basis - within two weeks.
What have I done?:
Absolutely nothing.
Here is what I could have done, beside nothing:
a. Put a sales order in the market, instead of keeping my nose at the monitor for several days.
b. Ask the Lady of the House out for lunch, instead of keeping my nose at the monitor the whole day today,
c. Ask the Lady of the House out for dinner, in stead of keeping my nose at the monitor the wole day today.
What happened at Nasdaq OMX Sweden closing today?:
I got hit by hubris - The Boris syndrome.
After that, I checked out the US market - SAN was up closer to 7 per cent than 6 per cent [A larger position than INVE A]...
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Time to get back to investing ...
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You might want to look a little more closely at oil/gas.
Crude oil was originally a substitute for whale oil - & light to see by. It replaced whale oil because it was cheaper, burned brighter, and was available near everywhere. It was also the ONLY industrial use for the stuff.
Electricity replaced burned oil, & essentially put oil out of business. It was saved through invention of the IC engine and the mass production of the car.
As cars go electric & the need for electricity rises, the existing need for oil/gas will decline - driving down price. Low priced & cleaner burning gas displacing the coal. Nukes remain important, but not by as much as everyone would like to think.
SD
SharperDingaan,
Late reply here, but I haven't forgotten. I think your post here was - at least partially - adressed to me . - And I have vacation the coming week - please read : more time for investing work - studying and reading.
About four and a half year ago I invested in the Supermajors, Statoil, Lukoil and Gazprom [material overweight to Lukoil and Gazprom] - as a basket - at that time about 18 percent of portfolio, I think. I have diversified out these positions by adding to AUM a lot - without adding to those oil stocks -, on total family level - ten times or the like.
Honestly, it's nagging me - because of mediocre results so far - compared to about everything else I have done.
So: Where do I start, to get this about right [all over again]? - Perhaps it is not at all for me ...
Your insights, comments and directions will be much appreciated.
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John, it's a pretty fascinating read. My first copy, I read the entire thing that week! I just couldn't put it down because of all of the history, details, personal stories about Buffett, Berkshire, Omaha, investing, etc.
Then you buy another copy say 4-5 years down the road, and read all of the new stories. Then buy another one 4-5 years down the road again, and read all the new stuff again. Plus, you'll go back and read some of the other stories over and over as well. As Longinvestor said, it's a great reference guide as the index in the back is very comprehensive if you are looking for a specific subject. Cheers!
Sanjeev,
It reads to me that the book is "built" over many years - Berkshire style - better and better for every "yearly edition" - year by year, and has evolved to a behemoth, based on the long tough haul! Now I really can't wait to get it in my hands!
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I strongly disagree with this statement,
"“Superior results don’t come from buying high quality assets, but from buying assets – regardless of quality – for less than they’re worth. It’s essential to understand the difference between buying good things and buying things well"
How has his performance been?
scorpioncapital,
I would say good, ref. 2016 10-K, p. 15. It's a huge value investing franchise over six asset classes & investment types.
Why I Lost My Bet With Warren Buffett
in General Discussion
Posted
+1 , the bet was a calamity, this article is simply even worse - it's a marketing disaster for a manager of OPM - plain and simple.