wachtwoord
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Everything posted by wachtwoord
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What I am surprised is how little it would take to move the needle to the other side. Imagine if we just had another meltdown similar to 2008. I can guarantee that Trump would have won handily no matter how racist,misogynist, dangerous tyrant he would sound. How are we any different than the authoritarian countries that we lecture every day about the wonders of democracy and open society ? They just happen to have shitty economy and bad neighbors.Doesn't make China look so bad does it when they clamp down on the free media? How about Venezuela or Iran who blame their neighbors for their problems? Or Russia who employs the draconian measure to save the republic? Or Israel who we lecture how to treat the muslims. This close race is what scares the hell out of me. I wore why I believe this is fascism. The thing is that compared to past fascists Trump is kind of incompetent and kind of an idiot. He ranks pretty low on the scale. What if we got a more competent one. Or what if he didn't pick on Mexicans but instead picked on the Chinese or something. He may very well have closed that small gap. We got luck this time (hopefully. don't count chickens and jinx it). Hopefully tomorrow is a wake up call and after the hangover clears America realizes it had a close call, does some serious introspection and cleans up its act. I won't hold my breath though. Me too but the other way around. I would vote for a randomly drawn individual over Hillary all day long as she's evil. The old Buffet quote applies: “Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire , you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy . And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.” –Warren Buffett I believe Clinton is likely to wage many wars while Trump will just be a protectionist bigot. Oh and if you don't lower taxes soon you will go the way of Europe. Everyone will turn lazy. It wil become part of the culture. But we have effective tax rates considerably north of yours. It's one of the main reasons I will not live here for many years to come. I don't like people leeching of me.
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Is there really an argument here that a career politician may not have the same skills/experience negotiating deals as an accomplished businessman? This was one of the most shocking aspects of the 2012 election; that there were people who held it against Romney that he was successful and claimed Obama would be better for the economy. For one, somebody who has made their living taking other people's money(through taxation and donation) can't possibly have the same respect for details as someone looking out for their own dollar/investors/business. Do you actually think that negotiating at the nation level, say for a cease fire or a peace deal is the same as negotiating a bulk purchase of mattresses? If I was hiring someone to negotiate a fancy renovation maybe I'd pick Trump but if I'm looking for a cease fire I'll take Clinton over Trump without thinking twice. Why are we still talking about this nonsense of how the economy would be so great under Romney because he was a businessman v.s that crappy Obama? We don't know because he didn't win. But remember Romney promised that at the end of his first term he would have achieved the heroic feat of bringing unemployment down to 6%. Barack H. Obama: 4.9%. I'd say some respect is warranted. But Clinton doesnt want a cease fire. She loves war.
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CTO and AND.TO
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20 Years Ago - Ackman Question to Buffett & Munger on Indexing
wachtwoord replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
Indeed. I was more seeing this as good news. A creating (and/or increasing) driver of opportunity. -
I'm going to be honest that's why I'm asking. I thought it would be helpful if we all reported the same way. If current year counts 1 otherwise 0. As per your preference I will not count the current year :)
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Do we count the current year? (so I know what to vote)
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QFT. Very good summary.
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Working for 10 years is a waste of a decade for me period (in any job, it's the absence of freedom). Still it's a relatively sure-shot way to financial independence if you control your spending. I'm perfectly fine with risk taking (and have done so and continue to) but only those which I think have positive risk adjusted benefits. You need to be paid for uncertainty or you nothing better than the guy at the slot machine.
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The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham (A series of Lectures)
wachtwoord replied to Green King's topic in Books
Thanks for sharing this, will definitely read this. At first glance though, I think me might have been a more successful investor than husband :o -
Very simple: by knowing you are making educated gambles with an overall positive expected value? Don't be results-oriented.
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I'm a cheap skate in the sense I hate useless expenditures because they limit my freedom without adding much to my life. I dont own a car for instance and I prefer ordering stuff from China and waiting two weeks to get it over buying overpriced stuff at home. At the same time I dont limit myself much and certainly can't find myself in your opinion with regard to investment. My biggest investments (and gains) have been on stocks that went down in price a lot first because it gives you the chance to average down. It also doesnt make me nervous (unless somethibg changed or I made a mistake in my original thesis). I think the cheap skates you know are simply irrational people and dontvrepresent frugal people in general.
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Most of these unpaid bills stem from Trump firms/properties that went into bankruptcy. It's a bit ironic for me to think that Trump who had several of his firms go into bankruptcy is qualified to fix the Us deficit. Is it ironic? Declaring bankrupcy seems like the only way to fix the deficit. Of course this can also take the firm of printing to inflate your debt away (but that's simply a more sneaky method to go the bankrupcy route thatcmost people wont recognize). Maybe you could elaborate on how bankruptcy would fix the deficit, or how it is the only way. I think we all need a laugh. I wonder what sort of eloboration you require.
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And apparently Hillary used the exact same method to avoid taxes (not that there's anything wrong with doing so): http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-02/clinton-campaign-admits-hillary-used-same-tax-avoidance-scheme-trump Oh what a breaking news!! I wonder who mailed Hillary's return to this basement dweller ? Wait that's Hillary herself , she released all of her returns so everyone can check. And last time I checked her tax rate was 34% not 0%. On the other hand , the scam artist who claims to be the best businessman managed to run a billion dollar loss 20 years ago. He over leveraged,overpaid and under estimated the risks. How do we know he is not underwater now? Maybe he reported $5B loss last year but we will never know because there are no disclosures. And don't give me a spiel how successful he is now. A successful billionaire shouldn't have time to appear on a reality show for 14 seasons, shouldn't be opening scams like Trump university, foundation, steaks. I believe Cuban when he says he is close to bankruptcy and is desperate. How many of you guys invest in a company without looking at the income statement? And you can see that a significant potion of her income comes from giving extremely overpaid speeches. Surely that cannot be a sign of corruption. Surely she's not in the companies pockets .... For the record, I also wouldn't show my taxes.
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I've lived in NYC for 25 years and have witnessed firsthand the slimeball that is Donald Trump. I linked 15-20 sketchy things that Trump has done which I am pretty sure you or I would never do or say. To me, the Trump apologists are the blind ones here. But you can do the same for Hillary. He may suck but the other option is that much worse. Just vote Gary Johnson :)
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Most successful among Trump, Watsa, Biglari, Bezos and Musk
wachtwoord replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
I think there was a little more to it than that! But either way, serious question, who do you consider the most successful businessmen since you think innovation is such a key part of that title? I feel like every super successful businessman that I've ever looked into inevitably "copied" their idea from somewhere else. Very good point. I feel the others are successful businessmen as well as innovators, while he's only successful in business. I wasn't calling him a failure. Simply overrated (and he's rated very highly in general, so overrated is not as much as an insult as it may appear). -
I think this is correct (it is in my case, 6 digits nearly 50% in my top 3 holdings). Maybe we should define a set of portfolio value ranges (predefined, to keep some privacy) to specify next to your holdings to make a topic such as this a bit more meaningful?
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Most of these unpaid bills stem from Trump firms/properties that went into bankruptcy. It's a bit ironic for me to think that Trump who had several of his firms go into bankruptcy is qualified to fix the Us deficit. Is it ironic? Declaring bankrupcy seems like the only way to fix the deficit. Of course this can also take the firm of printing to inflate your debt away (but that's simply a more sneaky method to go the bankrupcy route thatcmost people wont recognize).
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Most successful among Trump, Watsa, Biglari, Bezos and Musk
wachtwoord replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
Jobs is so overrated. His accomplishment was mainly making a huge marketing machine (while most people believe him to be an innovator, he's not in the slightest). Gates, Musk and Bezos are indeed close. The only reason smartphones and tablets are as ubiquitous as they are is because of Jobs. The design, utility and functionality of the iPhone is what forced other manufacturers to step up their game. When I first used the original iPhone, it was light years ahead of the competition...only now, 9 years later have other manufacturers started producing comparable devices...and the best competitor, the Samsung 7, was recalled for exploding and catching fire! Jobs was not an engineer, but he understood design better than one. Today, his company is the most profitable company in the world, with arguably the strongest balance sheet...how over-rated is he again? Cheers! Because the above is false. Ipod wasn't new and Iphone wasn't either. Similar devices were on the market years before. With some combination of skill and luck Jobs got people to buy it by the millions. I wonder who will take Google glasses, rebrand it and pretend to be an innovator. Did I say that the smartphone didn't exist before jobs, or did I say that he took the smartphone and made it relevant through design, utility and functionality? Think of the products that he created that forged the environment we are now in: - The Apple Computer - The Apple II - The Mac - Macbook - Ipod - Iphone - Ipad - Itunes - Applepay...yes on Cook's watch, but you knew this was coming and was thought of at Apple long ago. Not too mention all of the other Apple products, the insane cash flow at the company or the culture created there. Cheers! I'm not saying he's not a very bright businessman (he is!). I'm just saying he's not an innovator. He took existing things, made then white and shiny, added an i in front of the name and upped the price 40-100%. For some reason he knew people would swallow that crap in large numbers. I personally very much dislike their purposefully isolated and disconnected eco-system and for example they make 3rd party is cables not work on purpose (so they can sell theirs at 1000%+ markup). They also push SW updates that slow old devices so owners replace them (this has been proven). Personally I consider AAPL an unethitcal company as they still consider HW you bought from them theirs and act accordingly. This is all besides the point that I dont consider Jobs to be an innovator of any kind but marketing simply because none of his profucts are new (maybe the smart Watch was, not sure about that one). -
As in my signature ordered by market value with the top 3 positions making up nearly 50% of the portfolio. FELP - ALS.TO - PDER - SODI - WWIB.OL - NOV - ADDC - HNFSA - AND.TO - COMX - RSKIA - PDRX - OPST - UPGI - MRCR - BDE - BONL
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Most successful among Trump, Watsa, Biglari, Bezos and Musk
wachtwoord replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
See this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone -
Most successful among Trump, Watsa, Biglari, Bezos and Musk
wachtwoord replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
Jobs is so overrated. His accomplishment was mainly making a huge marketing machine (while most people believe him to be an innovator, he's not in the slightest). Gates, Musk and Bezos are indeed close. The only reason smartphones and tablets are as ubiquitous as they are is because of Jobs. The design, utility and functionality of the iPhone is what forced other manufacturers to step up their game. When I first used the original iPhone, it was light years ahead of the competition...only now, 9 years later have other manufacturers started producing comparable devices...and the best competitor, the Samsung 7, was recalled for exploding and catching fire! Jobs was not an engineer, but he understood design better than one. Today, his company is the most profitable company in the world, with arguably the strongest balance sheet...how over-rated is he again? Cheers! Because the above is false. Ipod wasn't new and Iphone wasn't either. Similar devices were on the market years before. With some combination of skill and luck Jobs got people to buy it by the millions. I wonder who will take Google glasses, rebrand it and pretend to be an innovator. -
Most successful among Trump, Watsa, Biglari, Bezos and Musk
wachtwoord replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
Jobs is so overrated. His accomplishment was mainly making a huge marketing machine (while most people believe him to be an innovator, he's not in the slightest). Gates, Musk and Bezos are indeed close.