wachtwoord

Jfan recently re-shared an analysis I shared here a long time ago: I suggest you read it but the short of it: ETH is worth orders if magnitude less than BTC. So any valuation it has ever had, including today's, is a vast relative overvaluation.

I wrote that ... Just less than anything else except Bitcoin which is simply better gold on all metrics that matter.

They do. They are also unlikely to an extreme degree. I'd say a 6 sigma event for each of them. Eg look into quantum computing. It's quite unlikely to even be possible with the laws of out universe at a useful scale.and even if it is, it is by far the most likely that it's a gradual development rather than an overnight thing. It wouldnt take more than a few months (mostly political and logistical) to roll out Bitcoin update too. So indeed a 6 sigma event is needed for that to be dangerous in the slightest (overnight quantum computers at scale). The only real consequence is that really old addresses (think Satoshi's million) can potentially become possible to take ownership of relatively cheaply/easily. That alone won't wipe out the value though.

Losing ownership. Either due to not holding the keys yourself or due to holding the keys but not properly and safely causing you to either lose access or be stolen from.

Protection of purchasing power. Equity and real estate have an enormous history of being seized or otherwise stolen from the owners. Gold the least out of all of these, plus it's the most portable out of whatever location it is in. Of course it is beaten on all of these by bitcoin, but definitely not by equities or (much worse) real estate. Real estate is really the last thing I'd want to "own" (between quotes as you cant really own it, gov can force you to give it up whenever it likes).

That REALLY depends on your metrics of valuing it as an investment and your timeline. I'd argue gold's been the best store of value on the planet. Been .... until Bitcoin came along. Also wrt intrinsic value: please define it. I consider anything which value is based on fiat currency cashflows to have zero intrinsic value. Bring in the Zimbabwean and Weimar Republic's wheelbarrows with cash! I guess you have nearly the opposite definition of me so a discussion using this term would go nowhere.

Of course. As said, I'm not pro republicans, I'm a libertarian (the real kind, very rare sadly). Trump isnt a republican and will cause far less damage. A good leader is impossible: no good person would want it. I'd argue the left is currently much much worse. They control discourse through harsh and extreme censorship combined with the development of Orwellian newspeak designed to make the minds of the populace incapable of any type of resistance. Yes: give me the classical rightwing misbehaviour any day of the week as that is extremely mild and non-dangerous by comparison. I strongly dislike Musk as he's a lying, manipulative, non-loyal, hypocritical (his core businesses survive of subsidies for fuck's sake) individual who switches sides like women change clothes but what you write is completely false. He allows all sides on his platform. On a plus side I dont have to make new accounts after he took over as I don't get banned anymore for daring to utter the truth I think I responded to this above already but completely false. The left lies, manipulates, twists, censor's and even destroys how we use language. Again by comparison the right is extremely mild. All they want is power. Arguments are only excuses. The only good way to deal with government is to shrink it and take away it's power. The more power it has the more evil it commits. Trump promised this. Will he deliver? Hopefully at least in part (and even if not, at least left wont make things worse for 4 years and hopefully NATO can finally stop its proxy war vs Russia they claim to be a Russian attack) I'm a libertarian. So not left, right or center. Individuality over collectivism always. Economically that means the left is the mortal enemy (snd economic reality dictates everything else eventually). It doesnt mean the right or center are friends though as most of them are authoritarian too but at least there's a non-authorotarian right. It cant exist for the left by definition due to enforced collectivism at its very core (unless you mean the extreme minority who prefer to live in small voluntary communes. With them I have zero moral issues. I wont elect to join them though, but respect their right to live as they wish as long as they return the favor).

Cause it has little real value and is extremely overvalued relatuve to Bitcoin by at least a 100-1000 factor. At some point the market should start reflecting that.

We traded away from danger. The extreme war monger are out of office. The ones responsible for the horrible Ukraine conflict escalation amoung other things (what they did to Syriah and Libya is unforgivable). Unfortunately Trump showed last time he can be coerced into signing off on such matters too but at least the president himself isn't directly in favor of it himself this time. Also Trump understands China is the geopolitical enemy, not Russia. Russia should be a western ally but I guessthat's fucking ruined now for the foreseeable future. Pushed into the arms of China. Edit: I'm sorry to say, but your comment on free media is just laughably naive. All main stream media is controlled. Freedom of speech is primarily attacked by the left/democrats with their Orwellian "fact checking" (conforming to the government ordained truth which is nigh never the truth in the true meaning of the word, actually quite often closer to the opposite), prosecuting people expressing opinions, trying to criminalize encryption etc etc. They are simply attempting to move to a world where everyone but them is completely and utterly oppressed and loses as individual right or agency. Don't like the republican party either of course (although marginally less bad than the democrats) so no idea what to do after Trump (as he isn't actually a republican at all).

A decade? There's at least a 50-50 chance the effect's too instable to scale (in popular lingo: "the universe is conspiring against us").

All valid criticism I say as an EU national (but as I like to point out: non-resident).

Thanks that was actually a decent article (I didn't expect that!) short of 2 things: 1. FTX creditors were not made whole. They were made whole based on an extremely depressed Bitcoin valuation on the petition date (while they were owed Bitcoin, not USD). After Bitcoin skyrocketed it was easy to repay creditors (and, except for some low amount of interest, the rest was robbed by lawyers and the IRS). 2. "young person with an intellectually defensible but socially unacceptable moral code" is very wrong. His moral code isn't intellectually defensible. Because 1. He fully discounts the cost of risk and the premium this should warrant, willing to take any arbitrarily small EV edge for any amount of risk. That is simply an illogical stance. 2. He's willing to take that risk for others (while he pockets the positive EV) which isn't merely socially but also morally unacceptable.

Fair enough. Bitcoin's still a lot cheaper though (as price discovery is still ongoing). If that discount is not enough again: fair enough. Don't feel compelled into "backed" "cryptos" though. No value there.

You got it backwards. All the backed "cryptos" (in name only: they arent cryptocurrencies) arent worth anything as they require trust. "Cryptos" that require trust are worthless as trustlessness or core to the value proposition. Do you think that gold has no value because it isnt backed? No, of course not, gold is what backs the value of other products not the other way around. Bitcoin is analogous to gold (but with some extra benefits).

At least in Switzerland the landlord cant steal the deposit (blocked account in renters name).

And it will be (for now) much less than the amount the media is reporting. Closer to half. An overview:

Not sure about absolute valuation but am sure of some things: 1. It's a utility token at best. Utility tokens have a value ceiling orders of magnitude below store of value (I shared the paper/article explaining this earlier) 2. Relative valuation in relation to bitcoin: it's currently valued as 0.33 times the market capitalization of Bitcoin. I'd be surprised if it's real relative value to Bitcoin is even 0.01, making it completely uninvestable from a value perspective 3. Risk: it's completely centralized even in a singular person (Vitalik) who's under control of governments. 4. All changes during it's existance have pivoted stronger to centralization (and therefore away from value) so speculating on improvements also seems foolish.

ETH isnt a crypto. It never was. It's centralized crap.

It's arrogance if one significantly overestimated one's one ability or abilities. My abilities were not even up for discussion. I was mainly pointing out he was being far far too soft on himself and that by doing so he would never fix that particular shortcoming. It was meant to be nice but ignore the advice if you want to. Won't change my life I'll go back to mostly reading. I consider this topic a very interesting data point (well above average investors, among the more successful in society, higher educated in general, dealing with something that if succesful upsets the status quo and is rejected by the status quo for that reason).

All extremely extremely capped. Completely and utterly incomparable.

If one assumed in 2012 that failure was by far the most likely outcome (even >99% sure) it was STILL the wrong investment choice to walk away given the enormous potential gain. Only if failure was a nigh certainty walking away would have been the right choice. Of course that didn't mean throwing your net worth into it at the time ... I'd advise stronger self-reflection and to be honest with yourself rather than continue to seek excuses. It's the only way to self-improvement.

Would have worked fine. Yeah if you're going to give third parties uncollatoralized free loans on you don't you think it's you being the idiot? Hard to find? It's been the since 2012! And there hasn't been that much noise for the longest time (also I shared it here more than once: simplicity is key). It's just that most "educated" people didn't want to even look into this at all for forever since the arguments from those in their social class were negative. It's the same idiots that blindly took unneeded covid shots, believe thing like that Russia is the party to blame in the current war, man made climate change is proven, there's more than 2 human genders, BLM isnt racist etc etc. If you're going to believe people based on their social standing rather than the strength of their arguments and the accuracy of their words, you are going to have a bad time ... This societal problem is far from over. It's getting worse and worse (eg academia has nearly totally gone to shit now).

Not really. This very straightforward post from 2012 summarizes all you really need to know in easy to follow language: https://medium.com/lux-initiative/bitcoin-the-libertarian-introduction-c616edd8496c Do you consider reading that studying? Come on, there really isn't any excuse. Buffet has been really disappointing in his old age. Not because of his opinion in itself, but for stating his opinion publically on something he clearly doesn't understand (if he did understand it's bad too as then he'd have publically and purposefully lied to vulnerable people).

1. Bankman-Fried isnt on the other side. He was a scammer peddling scamcoins, NOT Bitcoin. 2. If you base your point of view in life on who says something rather than what they say you fully deserve any and all consequences/outcomes.

And this gets shared on one of the best public investment forums. Shows how early it really is (maybe not measured in time, but measured in saturation of understanding it's really low).