willie2013

AIV

KBAL a Michael Burry coattail

Was Greg’s AYR SPAC an outlier or are there other names worth buying to hold? DYOW but it would seem some businesses need capital for growth and management expertise and are not being bought for a flip.

BYD (owned since I started this thread), ANGI, ATEX, FFXDF, RP, ROOT, SPT, STNE, and a basket of gold miners ( ARNGF, CMCL, DPMLF, and IAG) . Wanted AYR and other MJ names but they moved up quickly too much. Thanks all!

ROOT as a speculation (calculated gamble) significantly below the IPO price with a chance to grow within and disrupt the car insurance business. Been tracking it and the chart turned up on decent volume.

Short WFH at high valuations and use proceeds to buy REIT/Airlines/Oil

Mass transit ?

If you assume Buffett and Gates are two weeks in front of everyone else and they are collaborative close friends and you assume the combination of their knowledge (economic plus virus) is high percentage correct, why is Gates advocating testing? It does seem he relied on really bad CFR #s.

Plant Japanese red maples

80.12% Short term trades with lucky timing on MBIA/SHLD. Held BLDR, BYD, and ELOS all year. Lost money owning QID, SH, and Fortress.

I don't think it is possible to exclude the chance of another "black swan" type of event, such as the man-made mega-cat that Buffett writes about below: http://berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/web1101.html

BRKB 30% BLDR 20% BYDDY 12% ELOS 11% ATUSF 10% FIATY 10% FTPLF 7%

FIATY, ELOS, and FRCOY

Fast Retailing FRCOY and Builder's First Source BLDR

Wellmont, Yes, the two leveraged ETFs, SH and QID, are held with the other stocks within a portfolio that has large margin currently (35%). SH and QID, new positions, are a "trade" (trying to time the macro is, well stupid, but chart looks overbought, Japan, QE, etc. etc.) It would make more sense to sell stocks to become 75% long/25% cash than to lever up to 82% equities/18% SH and QID and be about 75% long after you account for the 2X QID. Sorry in advance, I may not be communicating well here. -willie

Is this a leveraged ETF? They are huge ripoffs and sell out their investors. Short them (in *very* small amounts or not at all), don't go long them. Buffett stopped hedging a long time ago. I don't think that it's worthwhile. Agree. Hedging with leveraged ETFs takes on "decay/compounding" losses, AND buying them in an attempt to make short term macro calls = hubris. The chart just looks so darn overbought and Japan is unraveling though! Thanks.

Why do you think BYD is Pabrai's secret stock? I believe Pabrai said (1) misunderstood-BYD is thought to be a car company and if you review the products section of byd.com you realize they are not a "car" company. And, they have changed the focus of the car segment to pubic transportation; (2) tailwinds - peak oil/environmental concerns produce the need to develop, transmit, store, and gather alternative energy sources in the future; (3) Incredible manager - Wang Chuan Fu was called a Thomas Edison/Jack Welch hybrid by Munger; and (4) Current price weakness caused by a variety of factors - the bearish articles have mentioned a myriad of concerns during the stock weakness. If it's not BYD, possibly FIAT, - Pabrai is in a picture in front of a Ferrari that was out front of the Hilton during the Berkshire meeting. Fiat just doesn't make sense though because the automobile business isn't misunderstood and doesn't have tailwinds. CHK and ZINC don't made sense either. And, the Munger connection is oh so obvious.

Curious, do you work for a Berkshire company. How else would one own BRK-B in their company 401K if their company was not Berkshire? I'm not criticizing, want to know how (if) because I will go 100% BRK-B in my 401K and tell everyone I know :) Yes. Acme Brick.

Rather than call in to Cramer's "are you diversified" I thought I'd post my holdings: ATUSF 6.7% Idea from CB&F BODY 1.1% Retail turnaround/Coattail Tilson BLDR 19% A rare personal pick/sells to volume builders/gaining share/lumber prices catalyst BYDDY 11.2% Have owned on and off for several years/probably Pabrai's secret stock FIATY 3.6% Idea from CB&F/jockey/turnaround/Chrysler roll-up FTPLF 2.6% Idea from CB&F/no catalyst IMHO INTL 6% Leucadia owns large share/LT holding hasn't done much JMBA 6.8% Idea from CB&F/juicing is in vogue/like the jockey and his "promise" SD 3.6% Owned on/off for years/think Ward is better than McClendon/Activist stock may gap up SHLD 13.2% Idea from CB&F/value of brands will surprise folks someday ELOS 8.5% Coattail Klarman/seems like a good growth business but hasnt... UTRA .1 % Stupid speculation/-95% LVLT .1% See above/sentimental holding SH 10% Trade these two shorts in/out rather than sell the above QID 8% Margin 35% Other than these stocks, I own 100% BRKB in a company 401K. Feel free to critique. Thanks to all here, especially those that brought good positions (MBI) to my attention and Sanjeev. -willie

Deep in the money calls on HDGE are a way to gamble/trade on a "SHOT".