onyx1

I wish WEB would leave the cheap political stunts to the politicians. A dollar for dollar match (or $3 in the case of McConnell) when his net worth is $60bln doesn't look like a good faith proposal to me. How about a challenge to match a donation based on a percentage of McConnells vs. WEBs net worth?

Agreed. Long term track records smooth out the effects of year end tax selling.

Up 2% The bad: Regional airlines, where I way underestimated how severely the market can punish these stocks. The good: Uncorrelated special situations stocks GRYO, MMPIQ, COF.H, and PRXI. BBSI, a small cap PEO approaching a triple from its 2009 low. WRB, up 30% and has become one of my largest positions. Lucky: 60% gain in one month on shares of RRBG, due to activist catalyst Lessons learned: Be more patient. Resist the urge to buy in early; the market often offers attractive entry points when information is lacking between quarterly earnings releases. To do: Look for opportunities to run a more concentrated portfolio. Read Fortunes Formula. Congratulations to all those with double digit returns, very impressive performance!

Thats what Phil Cooley was supposed to do.

Buying shares of companies based on popularity, rather than fundamentals.

There are so many ways this can play out it's anyone guess, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where it doesn’t go one for 5 years or more. Walnut Place is only one of 44 parties who want to intervene in the settlement. Some want more money, some want the option to opt out, and some want the distribution among parties to be different. WP owns only a handful of the 530 covered trusts. If, years from now, WP is successful, surely the other trusts will petition the trustee for an improved settlement. But even if the trustee convinces BOA to up the settlement amount from $8.5bln, will it be over? I say no. State AGs other political interests will want their notoriety. Other certificate holders will still want a different distribution among senior and junior classes, and still others will want even more in settlement amounts and may bring their own actions. Since non-GSE claimants need a higher threshold to receive damages (they must show that the R&W breach caused them material harm) it’s easy to see this turning into a decade’s long litigation nightmare. If BAC decides to fight it out in court the present value of the settlement will work in their favor. Additionally, since BACs losses are a function of house prices on the put-back loans, BAC liability will drop over time as the housing market recovers. The more time, the better chance their losses are minimized or even eliminated. If they decide to file CFC in BK11, the litigation window may not be as long, but it could easily be 5-10 years because of the tens of thousands of unsecured claimants. I’m pulling for the settlement to hold, but if it does not, it’s far far from game over for BAC.

William Berkley, at GS conference yesterday: "We think – in light – in the current cycle we think we are just at the beginning of price increases. Two years ago – actually two and a half years ago, I thought the cycle was going to change because I expected AIG not to get the degree of help from the government that it did. I was incorrect, the government, as we all know – in fact we bailed out AIG which delayed the inevitable. It wasn’t that prices were bad two years ago, they were. But by allowing AIG to hold on, AIG continued to be able to cut prices and held the market in check. Prices started to turn the end of last year, the beginning of this year and we are definitively in a hardening market. The beginning of this year I told people that I expected 5% to 8% price increases by the end of the year, I would still expect that to be the case. But we are really just at the beginning of that happening and along with price hardening, terms and conditions are changing which lets the business you write become more profitable. So the industry is in a tough shape. No real returns by and large most companies are not making any profits other than from what they carry forward from prior years. There are a few exceptions, but if you look at the industry average, you choose the number for what you think new money yields are depending on duration of their portfolio, but by and large the industry has negative to 1% or 2% returns. "

You haven't lived until you've driven around in a Cadillac with the Star Wars soundtrack playing on the 8 track. Yes. :D And no greater test of skill than trying to eat candy buttons while ridng a Schwinn Stingray!

Jack Miller attended the FFH meeting and was at the Zenith table with Keri Van Gundy, CFO. Both were insightful and generous with their time.

After over 3 years of red tape delays, the White House votes 'present'. A gross abdication of leadership at a time when America needs jobs and lower energy prices. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/us-usa-pipeline-idUSTRE7A64O920111110

The media wished they would have, but the Tea Party didn't and they won't. The big difference is that the Tea Party worked within the system, and OWS wants to destroy the system. Tea Party rallies were orderly and respectful of property. Parks were spotless when they left. There were no riots or significant disruptions. Participants waived the American flag, and recited from the US Constitution and asked it to be respected. Independent voters (essential to getting any political impact) were sympathetic, and joined them at the voting booth. The result? A major impact on the decision making process of this country. OWS could have learned a lot from the Tea Party tactics, but they are going down the over-used path of "no justice, no peace" and independent voters are not buying any of it. OWS fail.

Here is an interesting comparison of this recession compared to many previous through the lens of employment. I don't think we will see any downturn this severe again in our lifetime. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ODF7ytyDJtw/TrPczt2cTcI/AAAAAAAALNk/n--ZKQ7TGAM/s1600/EmployREcalignOct2011.jpg

Packer, Ask and you shall receive! Adbusters (the group who started OWS) is proposing a 1% tax on all financial transactions to stop the "$1.3 trillion in casino money sloshing around the economy". Presumably this would apply to ATM transactions as well as all bank deposits, currency transactions, purchases of goods, and any buying or selling of bonds/stocks. All in the name of social justice! Aside from ITEX shareholders, how many board members want to get behind this idea? ::) http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/10/27/occupy-wall-streets-robin-hood-tax-a-tough-sell-at-g20/ Righhhtt..... How is that going to do anything but encourage the use of options. What's a 1% tax on common stock going to cost me vs a 1% tax on the option? Stock brokers figured that out a long time ago, by charging you not on dollars but on the value of the underlying shares. I expect that the taxers would want the same.

Packer, Ask and you shall receive! Adbusters (the group who started OWS) is proposing a 1% tax on all financial transactions to stop the "$1.3 trillion in casino money sloshing around the economy". Presumably this would apply to ATM transactions as well as all bank deposits, currency transactions, purchases of goods, and any buying or selling of bonds/stocks. All in the name of social justice! Aside from ITEX shareholders, how many board members want to get behind this idea? ::) http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/10/27/occupy-wall-streets-robin-hood-tax-a-tough-sell-at-g20/

Yet they deem the haircut as "voluntary" to try and avoid the CDS default trigger. Will ISDA go along with this charade?

I enjoyed reading this VIC writeup, dated April 22, 2003. The market price at the time was $13.25: ------- Apple Computer is the world's only integrated (hardware/software) PC manufacturer. The Company has approximately 5% market share in the global PC market of 145 million yearly units. It offers a series of state of the art PCs and labtops at the leading edge of design, technology, and performance. Apple announced results last week (4/16/03) which were lackluster. Of note was that the company continues to generate free-cashflow (cash-flow from ops less capex) at the rate of 200 mln per year. More importantly however is that the Company has $4.526 billion in cash and securities on the balance sheet and only 315 mln of debt. This translates into the Company (ex cash) trading at between 3 and 4 times (TEV to free cash-flow). For those of you arguing that were it not for interest income, the Company would generate no free cash-flow, I would agree with you; however you would be looking at the company on a recent historical basis rather than a normalized basis. Additionally, the company’s prospects are not as bad as everyone thinks they are. The products are good. Apple has the best working capital management program in the industry. The 12 and 17 inch labtops are off to a good start. The IPOD is selling at the rate of 78,000 units per quarter and growing and the company has its stable/fanatical customer base which is willing to pay a significant premium, in excess of 25% for similar products, for the Company’s products. Finally, the company’s retail effort is exposing a significant number of consumers to the company’s products and some are responding favorably. Valuing 200 mln of free-cash flow conservatively at 15 times results in a business value of 2.7 bn subtracting the debt. Adding the cash balance of 4.5 bn gives a price per share of 19.70 dollars. Recent speculation in the press has hinted that Apple is in advanced discussions with Vivendi Universal to acquire the latter’s music business, VUM. This speculation is what caused the company's stock to fall from the $15.5 level to the current $13.25 level and making the stock significantly more attractive. I believe that there is a very small chance (<5%) that Apple purchases VUM. This is because the acquisition makes very little strategic sense because of a number of reasons: 1) Apple will introduce a system on April 28th, which will allow for the purchase of online music from the five major labels for a per song fee. Why would Apple then purchase one label if they have access to all of them. 2) The music business has little to do with the computer manufacturing business; other than distribution through the internet, there are no synergies. 3) Financially the acquisition would have a bad effect on Apple because clearly its holders see the majority of the Company's value in its cash balance hence the recent price decline due to a cash acquisition scare. 4) Steve Jobs (CEO) is no dummy. Say what you want to say about the guy but he has founded 3 companies: two of them with multibillion dollar market caps (Apple, Pixar) saved another one from bankruptcy (Apple) and sold another one for 500 mln+ (Next) and he is a survivor. Granted his stubbornness boxed him out of the greatest value creation bonanza in the history of the planet and he walked out with only a billion + rather than Gate’s 50 billion, but that is a problem most of us would like to have. And finally, lets assume that Apple buys VUM for $ 6 bn (a 30% discount to the sales multiple where EMI presently trades) and for simplicity’s sake lets assume Apple pays all in cash and assumes the balance in debt or 1.5 debt + 4.5 cash bn. The combined company would have a TEV of 6.8 bn and free cash-flow on a normalized basis of 700 mln. (VUM had EBITDA of 963 mln during 2002, very little capex and no interest expense) Furthermore, lets assume that this cash-flow stream decreases at the rate of 10% a year every year and we discount the stream at 5%. This cash-flow stream’s value is 4.6 billion; subtracting the debt of this stream gives an implied equity value of 7.5 dollars per share for the combined company. On a probability adjusted basis, Apple’s share price should be 95%* 19.70 plus 5% * 7.5 or 19.1 per share which is 44% higher than where the Co. currently trades. -------- In the end, the author was right, but mostly on point #4. Would you have bought at the time? Being honest with myself, I very sure I would have said no. >:(

[amazonsearch]The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense For The Thoughtful Investor[/amazonsearch] Forty five years of value investing experience distilled into 180 pages. I now understand why Buffett reads Howards Marks letters as soon as they are published. This book is short, sweet, and dripping in wisdom. It will stand the test of time. I plan to re-read it every year.

I enjoyed it too. I went all in during last months mini-panic with additions of WFC, BRK and some others when the market became overly pessimistic about the future.

Thanks for postiong Junto. Hypothetical question: If you had to choose to hire someone from that list or someone currently occupying Zuccotti Park, who would you want on your payroll?

My heart in on the floor. Steve, you changed the world!

Fox reporting Steve Jobs is dead.

Where in America are all the dying children?? Where in America do all the malnourished kids that don’t have food live?? I have not read the book, but if there is a better source of information on this topic than the US Census I'd like to see it. Here are a few facts from the US Census about children defined as poor: Their average intake of protein, vitamins, and minerals is the same as that of the middle-class and well above recommended amounts. Poor children consume 100% more meat (protein) than higher-income children. Most poor children are over-nourished and grow up on average to be one inch taller and 10 lbs. heavier than the GIs who fought in WWII. That these are averages is not intended to hide the fact that there are poor in America who go without. But those numbers are small as 92% claim they have “enough food to eat”, and only 1.5% claim “often not enough food to eat”. Most relevant to this topic, only 4% of poor children (less than 300,000 children in total) experienced even a single instance of “reduced food intake due to lack of financial resources”. (see http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/ERR108/ERR108.pdf, page 12). There is already an ample network of food pantries, emergency kitchens and charities in place to deal with those in need. There is a lot of bad information and misunderstanding about poverty and the poor in America. The media (and others with vested interests) routinely feature poor families as hungry and leave the impression that all poor families are hungry. Sadly, this exaggeration and misinformation is then used to try and set public policy. This benefits no one in the long term.

Can you give some examples of the needs that are not being satisfied by millions of Americans? Thanks

Maybe thanks for living in a country with a record of wealth creation unmatched in history? "The poorest Americans today live a better life than all but the richest persons a hundred years ago. In 2005, the typical household defined as poor by the government had a car and air conditioning. For entertainment, the household had two color televisions, cable or satellite TV, a DVD player, and a VCR. If there were children, especially boys, in the home, the family had a game system, such as an Xbox or a PlayStation. In the kitchen, the household had a refrigerator, an oven and stove, and a microwave. Other household conveniences included a clothes washer, clothes dryer, ceiling fans, a cordless phone, and a coffee maker." http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/07/What-is-Poverty This was 2005. Today, cell phones, computers, internet access, Ipods, etc. are most certainly on the list. I'm not trying to incite a flame riot here, but simply offering a perspective that seems to be ignored in these discussions. Is it possible that class-envy is contributing to the well-intended concerns about fairness?

nhall, If one exists, I wouldn't put a lot of faith behind the predictions for the underwriting side as there are too many unknowns. As far as the assets side, I have seen some research that puts FFH at the top of MTM gains (vs. TBV) for the quarter ending 9/30/2011 using most recent available portfolio information. Out of 40 P/C and reinsurance companies which average MTM of 0%, FFH is tops at +4.6% and the lowest is American Financial at -3.8%.