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Grenville

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Posts posted by Grenville

    Portfolio manager

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hi,

     

    I use Microsoft Money 99 to log all the details for transactions including dividends ( I manually enter the data instead of having the program pull it from websites). I have been using the software to track a range of stocks and mutual funds for the last five years. The best feature about the program is the ability to pull transaction data very easily into excel. In addition, the money program can get online and pull recent stock quotes and mutual fund quotes.

     

    One spreadsheet I create and constantly update is my current stock positions and weightings. With one press in excel it will go to the money program and pull the data to update your current positions. Also at year end, I calculate cumulative returns in my various accounts. You can pull specific transaction data for certain accounts and then crunch through the data with excel formulas to calculate cumulative returns in which ever way you want. I prefer calculating my returns then relying on Microsoft Money's approach.

     

    It's not super high tech, but it fits my needs and is customizable through the excel feature.

     

     

    Recent $1 Billion Equity Offering Buyers

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    The most likely purchasers of the recent equity offering:

                                      Change in Shares

    ING Investment Mngmt    1,087,212

    Capital World Investors      660,000

    Davis Selected Adv          584,087

    Capital Research Glo          359,800

    Marshfield Associate          278,105

     

    total                            2,969,204

     

    http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/Institutional.asp?&sHead=t&coname=Fairfax+Financial+Holdings+Ltd&market=NYSE&selected=FFH&symbol=ffh&symbol=FFH&ads=1&FormType=Institutional&strFilter=T

     

    Davis Funds buys Fairfax

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I just can't seem to forget the fact that they missed the ball on AIG. They had over a billion before AIG imploded.

     

    Interesting picture:

     

    AIG reported holdings in Davis NY Venture Fund

    10/31/07 28,556,210 shares at $1,802,467,975

    4/30/08 30,451,813 shares at  $1,406,873,761

     

    Doesn't this mean AIG owned the Davis fund, not the Davis fund owned AIG?

     

    Sorry, I wrote things backward. Davis NY Venture Fund held AIG.

    Davis Funds buys Fairfax

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I just can't seem to forget the fact that they missed the ball on AIG. They had over a billion before AIG imploded.

     

    Interesting picture:

     

    AIG reported holdings in Davis NY Venture Fund

    10/31/07 28,556,210 shares at $1,802,467,975

    4/30/08 30,451,813 shares at  $1,406,873,761

    Health care competition

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Great article! Thanks for sharing.

     

    Shetty shows a similar line of thinking exposed by Atul Gawande. The heart surgery high volume approach shows the benefits of specialization similar to the example of the hernia operation center in Canada.

     

    "Japanese companies reinvented the process of making cars. That's what we're doing in health

    care," Dr. Shetty says. "What health care needs is process innovation, not product innovation."

     

    A great sign for the future of healthcare for us all!

    Jason Zweig Interview: Teach Yourself to Become a Better Investor

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    And the simple answer is that you can't know whether you made a good decision to sell unless you look at the performance of what you sold after you sold it. Because it's quite possible it did better after you sold it than it did before you sold it. And it may have done better after you sold it than the thing you replaced it with, in which case you made a very foolish decision. And you can't evaluate whether you made a foolish decision unless you measure it...."

     

    I completely disagree.  The problem with this kind of thinking is that there is the implication that your investment decisions are right or wrong based upon the market price of the asset.  For example, I buy at $5 because I think IV is $10 and the asset then rises to $10.  I sell out of my position and track the asset after my sale.  The asset then rises to $20.  Did I make a foolish decision? I don't think so.  As an investor, all I care about is (a) current market price and (b) intrinsic value.  Whether or not that asset will then be traded by overly optimistic parties at some later date is irrelevant and it certainly doesn't make my investing decisions foolish.

     

    Biglari once stated that value investing is buying from pessimists and selling to optimists.  That implies that the asset you sold to the optimists might trade much higher at a later date.  And then I ask ... so what if it does?

     

    I agree with what you are saying in regards to short term price. I still think there is value in the idea of tracking what you have sold for some time.

     

    One's determination of intrinsic value is subjective. The goal should be to constantly improve the assessment of intrinsic value. Mr. Market provides a fairly strong data point in regards to intrinsic value. The caveat though is that in the short term that indication can be significantly off, but over time the market quote should eventually track intrinsic value. How much time elapses before the market weighs correctly is debatable.

     

    The value is using the market quote over time to provide some feedback to the intrinsic value calculation.

     

    An example:

    Company A trades at $5 at year 1. Intrinsic value is assessed at $10

    At year 2 the price reaches $10 and the intrinsic value is still assessed at $10 and the stock is sold.

    At year 7 the price reaches $25.

     

    Now what does this mean?

    a. The market is overly optimistic

    b. The assessment of intrinsic value missed something

    c. A fundamental change occurred in the company after year 2

    d. and so on....

     

    In the event that (b) is true some % of the time, the process of tracking a sold position provides important feedback to the intrinsic value calculation. Investing is a marathon and not a sprint. Any bits of insight that can be picked up along the way is only beneficial.

    Jason Zweig Interview: Teach Yourself to Become a Better Investor

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    A nice short interview with Jason Zweig that I thought ya'll would enjoy.

     

    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=311658

     

    Very nice idea:

     

    "....The only effective way I know of doing it is to incorporate a kind of analysis that most advisors to my knowledge don't use, which is to track not just the hold portfolio but also the sold portfolio. You have to keep a continuous record of the performance of the investments you got rid of to see whether after you got rid of them they did worse. And I know very, very few advisors who actually do this, and in fact some of them are puzzled as to why that's necessary. And the simple answer is that you can't know whether you made a good decision to sell unless you look at the performance of what you sold after you sold it. Because it's quite possible it did better after you sold it than it did before you sold it. And it may have done better after you sold it than the thing you replaced it with, in which case you made a very foolish decision. And you can't evaluate whether you made a foolish decision unless you measure it...."

    FFH 13-F 9-30-09

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    The 13F just came out. Here is a highlight of the portfolio changes:

     

    Alcoa        SOLD OUT

    BCE Inc.    -91.5%       $6,592    9/30/09 value

    GE            +45.2%      $435,671 9/30/09 value

    GE Calls      NEW          $8,354    9/30/09 value 2,620,000 SH

    INTEL         -18%        $111,748 9/30/09 value

    King Pharm  SOLD OUT

    Leucadia     -32.4%      $16,677  9/30/09 value

    Magna        -2.3%        $224,701 9/30/09 value

    Methanex    SOLD OUT

    Sandridge   -29%         $11,426   9/30/09 value

    Zenith        +78.3%      $30,625   9/30/09 value

     

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000095012309061698/o57876e13fvhr.txt

     

     

     

    Buffett video on BNI purchase

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Great video.

    Thanks

     

    Agreed!

     

    I remember listening to the Alice Schroeder talk from Motley Fool and she described how Warren keeps CNBC on mute in his office. When they start talking about him, he turns up the volume. I guess this time he decided to call in!

     

    Nice tidbits:

    + 40% of all ton miles moved on rail

    + 470 miles/gallon of diesel for 1 ton of goods transported

    Watsa and Buffet

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    The text of the comments is in one of the Outstanding Investor Digests. I bought the one that has the information on EBAY. I can dig it up if you want specifics on his comments.

     

    What about the USG deal? How did you know Fairfax brought it to Berkshire?

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