matts

Don't know the rest of Europe. But in Poland, you don't pay cap gains on ANY real estate if your holding period is at least 5 years (primary, investment, raw land, whatever). If you hold the RE less than 5 years but reinvest the gains into RE anywhere else in EU for primary residence purposes within 1 year, you also avoid the tax. All other circumstances you pay 19% flat cap gains, which is around the level of the first of 2 income tax bracks. so you can sell your primary residence AND and 3 investment properties in poland, and buy something in a more expensive country like france to live in and avoid all tax even before the 5 years.

I'm in no rush to take it as I'm young and healthy. But we like to travel and looks like international travel will require it once it's widely available. Sooo, next time I want to take an international vacation i'll probably get the shot. By then, most of the kinks should be worked out, much more data etc.

I was born in poland, educated in Canada, worked as a portfolio manager in Canada, and now I'm based in Poland. Just starting to get a real feel of the market here. Happy to share some thoughts.

Best of luck!

Thanks for the input guys. I found another possible way to play it. would appreciate any input. Bluerock reit Pref shares BRG.PR.A trade at 20.62 (around 10% yield). Bluerock is a multifamily reit mostly in the sunbelt. They just had their Q1 Quickly put together highlights: Occupancy at April end - 94% Collected 97% april rents, 92% may rents through May 12 (includes 2% on payment plans) These guys are constantly buying new buildings, renovating new units etc, so they are constantly issuing new prefs. They said that even in april, they were issuing new prefs at an annual run-rate of 200MM. I think for the next little bit they will keep diluting common and raising new prefs in order to pay the old prefs. cap structure ooks like this: 2.5B assets (2B of depreciated buildings) 1.45B Mortgages (80% of that is GSE) 100MM revolver 715MM in pref shares many pref shares recovered, but these still trade at a good discount which i think should close leading the way to a decent IRR rents look like they are getting paid (if not, they can always stop paying the GSE mortgages for a few months) and they will likely keep issuing prefs to retail investors that want the yield. Any thoughts appreciated.

Pupil, I think i remember reading you owned RESI in the past. you said you're not a fan of SFR but what do you think of it at 7.15 after the takeover fell through? someone wrote up a decent thesis here: http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/05/quickie-idea-renting-some-resi.html

I think you missed the worst bit, which is: to even get on the plane for an international flight, you will have to get a medical certificate; get temperature checked at the airport, and queue for security in a socially distanced way. People are talking about a 3-4 hour process at the airport. This is the year for a staycation in your own country (at an extortionate price)! people talked about 4 hours at the airport after 9 11 as well. Not sure why it would take 4 hours this time. The certificate you get a couple days before. If everyone is wearing a mask, why would there be a need to have meters of distance in the queue? makes no sense. temperature checks take a second, and more likely, they will be done by flir cameras so you won't notice it until someone taps you on the shoulder for being too hot.

Looks like the stimulus is working. From the Firstcash (pawn shops) call on April 21: “Our U.S. business has been further impacted in April as customers started receiving federal stimulus payments, which are in effect a “second tax refund,” assuming a stimulus payment of $3,400 for the typical family of four. Despite the severe and broad-based economic impacts of COVID-19 on so many businesses and individuals, many of our U.S. customers appear to be somewhat more liquid than would be expected given increased unemployment rates. In addition to stimulus payments, we believe that many of our customers have temporarily reduced their normal levels of spending significantly, as they adhere to strict “shelter-in-place” regulations resulting in reduced expenditures on gasoline, dining out, travel, entertainment, childcare and other services. “Accordingly, the U.S. results so far in April have seen both extremely strong retail sales and loan redemptions, coupled with a lower than normal volume of new loans being written. Currently, U.S. pawn loans are down 14% since the beginning of April, when normal seasonal trends for the month would typically see flat to slightly increased pawn balances. While the increased volume of loan redemptions is to date driving a 12% increase in collected pawn fees for April compared to last year, expected fee income after April will be impacted by the reduced loan balances. “Offsetting much of the near term impact of lower pawn balances is the strength of the U.S. retail business, where same-store retail sales in the first three weeks of April are up approximately 29% versus the same period last year while being able to maintain margins consistent with the first quarter. Much of the retail sales growth has been driven by strong demand for essential “stay at home” product categories, including electronics utilized for remote work or online learning and other “home-based” recreational products, such as gaming consoles and sporting goods."

Rent strike groups are starting to pop up https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/16/tenant-groups-set-rent-strike-for-may-1/ any thoughts on how widespread the movement will get? and then how successful? My answer would be pretty widespread in the large blue cities and will be meaningful on the margins for large landlords in those cities and a much bigger deal to small landlords.

CL1 expires this week. so anyone who didn't want to take physical delivery of oil had to sell/roll to next month. Shortly, CL1 will become June contract which is trading at 22.55. The 7 dollar oil is just fodder for the media. Although it makes me wonder how many people were trading these futures without understanding they needed to get out ahead of the crowd to avoid this kind of reverse squeeze.

live R number estimates by states. https://rt.live/ It was done by one of the Instagram co-founders. Interesting visualization of the changes. I'm not nearly smart enough to understand whether they are accurate.

I wanted to redo the poll posted by Viking on April 3 just to see how the consensus has changed. The low of March 23rd is also a much bigger drop from today than it was in early April. Thank you for voting. for reference here is the results of that poll as of today Yes - High Conviction 26 (19.4%) Yes - Low Conviction 50 (37.3%) Neutral (no opinion or no idea) 42 (31.3%) No - Low Conviction 7 (5.2%) No - High Conviction 9 (6.7%)

Not sure who you bank with but all I'm hearing is the opposite. Banks are not collecting on debts at all. forbearance for mortgage payments for anyone with a Fannie Freddie mortgage. Most foreclosure processes offline. Moratorium on evictions for landlords with a Fannie/Freddie mortgages. Same policies in Canada. My Canadian banks are sending me an email every couple of days offering me even more help (no interest on my credit cards, forbearance on my mortgage, suspension of many monthly account fees). Banks are not collecting on personal debts, they are too busy shoveling government money out the door. If you are a lower-paid worker in the restaurant industry for example. Very likely...you get the old unemployment payments, plus the extra 600 per month, the check directly from trump. On the liabilities side...you don't have to pay your rent/mortgage, you are very likely going to get some sort of break on your credit card debts. The above liabilities are not forgiven, but they will be in suspension until most people get to work. And really i suspect until the election because politicians will be politicians. So, how does the average low-income person get into trouble? They are earning more than before and don't have to lay out cash for their biggest liabilities.

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away. We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly, we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits. I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe.

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.