JBird

This is a great thread!

Hahaha

What we (and when I say 'we' I mean the Earth's civilization consisting of individual people) really need is a complete and total separation of science and state. +1

Thanks for posting. Amazing stuff.

Elon rolls on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/the-musk-show-in-washington-roils-rivals-as-fans-applaud.html

The ones currently trading at 70% of IV present the same risk/reward to both investors. Both the man who bought at 50% of IV and still holds it at 70% IV on the way to 90% of IV. As well as the man who buys it at 70% of IV for the first time and will sell at 90% of IV. You are right, the winners need to recoup the losses of the losers. However, when it is currently at 70% of IV the actual cost basis on your shares is irrelevant. It took a while, but not surprisingly I find myself agreeing with Eric again.

Thanks for posting Liberty!

Thanks so much

Best case scenario you're going to sit 50 ft away from Buffett so in my view it's not worth getting there pre-dawn to get the best seat possible. I show up at 6:30 and grab a seat directly across the arena from the stage so I don't have to turn my head to look at them for 5 hours. It's not jam-packed in that area, and the view is absolutely fine. In terms of getting nearby Buffett or Gates maybe my experience will be helpful. Last year at about 7:30 I walked to the convention center area. I saw Ndamukong Suh chilling with Kathy Ireland over at the newspaper toss and wandered over. Nobody was around. I was right next to the rope. 20 minutes later I had just enough room to breathe. Buffett and Gates were heading over. Suddenly I'm looking over the shoulder of the ceo of nfm. Buffett walks right up to him and asks for yesterday's numbers. (The man is obsessed with numbers). Anyway, I was close enough to see his eyes shifting across the page. If you want to get close and hear him crack a few jokes with Gates this is the route to go. (The bodyguards were saying no autographs btw) As for lunch, the arena food is fine, but it's super basic and costs ~10 bucks if I remember correctly. There are several restaurants within walking distance, but of course make a reservation if you wanna take that route. This is one event you would be absolutely insane not to be sociable at. Ask some basic questions to the people around you and chances are you're going to meet somebody worth remembering.

That's surprising considering $2.2 billion worth of BRK common is being shorted right now. (Source: Fidelity and Y-Charts)

Just called in. They still do not have a date scheduled but I'm now on the callback list for when it is scheduled-- I'll update again when I hear back.

Just start reading the threads. It will become quickly apparent.

This is somewhat akin to Buffett's hope for a dwindling IBM stock price. I don't think it's illogical. But of course if the goal is to maximize your investment in the company you're far better off having the company repurchase stock than reinvesting your dividends.

My favorite part of reading this book was thinking back on stories from my life that involved the models explained in the book. If the story was like a movie, recalling it with these new models in mind was like putting on 3D glasses. Anyone like to share such a story from their life?

Would love an audio feed. Happy to compensate someone for making the effort.

On the way back from the airport I once asked the cab driver to pull over, still a mile away from my house. I couldn't stand watching the meter rise anymore.

That's a good question for info@arlingtonvalue.com. Or you can contact Ben Raybould directly at 801.505.6275. Don't be surprised if they don't pick up. They're busy.

That makes far too much sense.

Since the AVM ranger fund started in July of 2008, it has returned 32.2% compounded annually net of fees, versus 9% for S&P 500. Who the hell cares what the fees are when the returns net of fees are so spectacular?

The Berkshire position was scaled back to 40%. They own those shares at least partly on margin (they're paying ~1.5% interest). They're currently holding ~13% cash. The fee depends on which of the funds you're in. AVM accredited asset fee is 0.20% per month, about 2.4% annually. AVM qualified is a 1% asset fee plus 15% performance fee.

Arlington gained 51.5% in 2013, 42.6% net of fees. Congratulations to Allan and Ben.

If your contribution to society is efficiently allocating a few million dollars in a multi-trillion dollar market, you haven't contributed much. If you have one productive job in a world with billions of productive jobs, you've contributed a massive amount? I think "per capita" contribution is the relative metric. And a few million dollars on a per capita basis is statistically significant. Well I think you're right and I want to make a distinction. Elon Musk has efficiently allocated capital to create several productive businesses that have benefited society. That I think is wonderful. I would contrast that to a passive investor who trades stock certificates all his life to get wealthy. It's not to say the latter hasn't done anything for society, but in my view it's not worth much praise. Yea, fair enough.

If your contribution to society is efficiently allocating a few million dollars in a multi-trillion dollar market, you haven't contributed much.

Because it's earning double digit returns on incremental capital in its five largest operating businesses (which account for 68% of operating earnings). Long-term returns will rest entirely on the company's ability to increase intrinsic value, not book value. If stock prices dwindle and share repurchases start, per-share book value will fall and per-share intrinsic value will rise. The price will follow the movements of the latter.

Thanks for posting the transcript. BUFFETT: WE ACTUALLY IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE ALMOST ELIMINATED OUR CATASTROPHE INSURANCE BUSINESS. Surprised by that.