muscleman

there is a nontrivial risk of many things screwing up the GSEs as we have found over past 5 years. as for Mnuchin's "statement," all I saw was Bloomberg reporting on a side press availability while mnuchin was in Japan. there were quotes about reform and private/public capital, but I dont see something that looks like a "statement". let's see what the treasury plan says (which itself will have been written by committee and have things in there we will not like) This is why I focus on technicals. There are way too many things that I like and way too many things that I don't like, and in the end all these information clogs up my brain's and I would end up freezing up without doing anything. There are definitely a lot of smart people who work hard and comb through all these complex clues, but not my brain.

I agree. A lot of people laugh at technical analysis and say they are just non-sense. I think that's true with a lot of naive TAs who just learned the magic of "Slow moving average crossing faster MA", or buying when "RSI is oversold". Those things are completely non-sense to me as well. Part of what I focus on is how price reacts to these bashing articles. It is very common for anyone to write up any kind of positive or negative opinions, and a lot of times these were written for a purpose. I still remember the day when Fiat Chrysler merger was announced, which was a huge positive for Fiat, and WSJ put out 8 articles on that same day to bash.

Soros book and Druckenmiller interview shows that they both architect the fund to buy a bunch of stocks as the bedrock, and then use that to get margin loans to trade bonds and currency futures. They think stocks are too illiquid for their size, so they would only use stocks as the bedrock, and use the borrowed money to trade liquid future contracts to reduce liquidity risk. Both guys are macro traders. Their stocks are bought as a basket for any given sector. I don't know if they hire individual stock pickers for their fund.

Cool. Thank you Luke. Do you have Bloomberg subscription? I heard it is a bit expensive.

Thank you! Is this another decision that overturned the original ruling? Before this, there were like 16 cases, and 14 were overturned, right? en banc decision was indeed a reversal of a prior merits panel decision Thank you Chris!

Thank you! Is this another decision that overturned the original ruling? Before this, there were like 16 cases, and 14 were overturned, right?

I've bought 8 vehicles in the past 10 years, and my experience is that the new cars are much better bargain than before. It is not uncommon to get 8-15k off MSRP these days for a 35-45k vehicle. I always check on autotrader.com and set the radius to ANY, so I can find the cheapest offering in the country, and know what price target I should shoot for in the local dealership. I've also seen dealerships ripping off customers on service packages. My volvo will be due for the 120k mile maintenance service soon. It is a ridiculous $1175 charge. When I check the exact items they do, it is not that much work. If I just tell them instead to do "oil change, tire rotation, engine air filter and ac air filter change, flush the brake", it is the exact same things for that 120k package, but the total cost of these items add up to just over $400.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right? He is so famous that I thought this is a wildly known fact. He was named Soros' 8th successor after Soros fired his first 7 successors. Then he magically hang on and worked well for Soros for many many years. I haven't heard any news that they parted their way yet, so I assume he is still Soros's successor.

Also, he manages Soros’ open society foundation, which is a charity right?

He is mostly trading futures, which is taxed 40% long term cap gain 60% short term gain no matter how long you actually hold them.

Thompson said it was the median for all 5th cir en banc rehearings Thank you! Hmm.... Did he say what the longest is? I kinda suspect that this one will lean toward the longest.

Chris, is the 5 month estimate on the en banc the median time for all other en banc cases, or is it the longest? Sorry for the dumb question.

1. Financially independent. 2. Be the Olympic champion of this game. When Buffet had only a small account, he was doing 50% a year. I want to have that kind of return.

That's not true. Let's say the company is earning $100, and total outstanding shares 100. so EPS is $1. Let's say the stock trades at 10 per share, for a P/E of 10. If the company issues 100 shares at 10 per share, there is $1000 in the balance sheet. So now, EPS is reduced to $0.5, but cash per share increased by $5. For simplicity's sake, let's just say the company uses this extra $1000 to buy back 100 shares. Then total shares outstanding is back to 100, and EPS back to $1. My point here is that equity offering at a reasonable price does not dilute shareholders. Equity offering at elevated valuations actually enhance shareholder value. my only thought is that most issuers use stock issuance proceeds to invest in expanding their businesses, and try to get a high return on capital. not so with GSEs. they are already humming along in full mode, so that stock proceeds will be used to pay down debt, lower leverage...which is good, extra capital is needed, but this is not the situation where dilution is not an issue because in most situations if the proceeds are put into highly productive use the new stockholders may be adding rather than diluting the pie Yeah that's true to be an immediate dilution. However, these two twins can't seem to expand their business or use the earnings for other things, so after the 100 bn capital injection, they'll have to use their earnings to either pay a high dividend to the common or buy back shares. So sooner or later what I described above will happen. Regardless, it should be good for the preferreds.

You could start by analyzing AutoNation, AutoCanada, and a few other auto dealership stocks in the UK. Their conference call, presentation etc give you a head start. They don't make a lot of money on car sales, but they have insane margin from service department. You can also check on autotrader.com to see how the cars are priced. For example, a ford F-150 XLT trim has a MSRP of 47000 but they are asking for 31000, if you put in zip code 98029. That's very interesting. I see big discounts like this for other trucks too. But usually not Japanese cars. I also remember in the FCAU thread, recently someone there mentioned a twitter account who has spot on analysis on the industry.

That's not true. Let's say the company is earning $100, and total outstanding shares 100. so EPS is $1. Let's say the stock trades at 10 per share, for a P/E of 10. If the company issues 100 shares at 10 per share, there is $1000 in the balance sheet. So now, EPS is reduced to $0.5, but cash per share increased by $5. For simplicity's sake, let's just say the company uses this extra $1000 to buy back 100 shares. Then total shares outstanding is back to 100, and EPS back to $1. My point here is that equity offering at a reasonable price does not dilute shareholders. Equity offering at elevated valuations actually enhance shareholder value.

i am sure they are smarter than that. If they stop NWS, and do phases equity raises, then it could work out well in a few rounds.

That's interesting from this guy lol. Honestly, I'd rather see him bashing the stock hard. Then I could check how the stock reacts, as part of my technical analysis. ::)

Wait for news -> wait for stock price to go up -> TA tells you stock will go higher. Where's TA analysis today on no apparent news but a rumored 5th circuit decision? Well, if you guys think I am annoying when I post TA, I'll stop. Sorry that it is not helpful to you guys. I'll just stay quiet as before then, as I am not good FA.

The big difference between this and other IPOs is that this is a really profitable company while others like Uber are endless money pits. In addition, they could do the IPO step by step. Do 20 bn first. Cancel NWS. This would cause the P/E ratio to be really low. Then as price goes up, they could do a few more.

What does TA say now? Be patient man. This is only one day after my post......

My TA analysis shows this should now make an accelerated run with small volatility. Hold on tight guys. :D

Agree. Closed end investment funds always tend to have discounts. We can't go over every single closed end fund and do this and claim we suddenly have free exposure to everything. The core issue is that you can't do a redemption in kind. Otherwise you could do this and do a redemption in kind to redeem all the other securities to cover your short and get a free GSE long exposure.

Thank you. I find it hard to believe that the Lamberth and Sweeney cases are moving so slowly. If trial is immediate, why can’t they just schedule it next week and get the decision the week after? Why another year?

Court doc attached... Thank you, Luke. And Muscle. Don't you guys love this logic? what logic? Lamberth’s reasoning in his order?