muscleman

Be careful with wishful thinking like this. I think a more realistic assessment is that there is some magic force probably from the tbtf banks that delays this again. Think about this: Why is Otting’s 2-4 week comment failed to deliver? Why did Calabria changed his tone from IPO in the 1st quarter next year to hopefully sometime next year?

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time. I think the internals of the chart for FNMAS as a generic pfd view look like an upturn is coming. The pullback has happened on low volume, MACD looks to be turning up soon, stochs are where a turn around has been before, OBV hasnt falled off a cliff and Accum/Dist looks fine too. Market is waiting for upcoming news. Just like FA, where different people disagreeing on the same names, TA is the same. I wouldn't mind seeing disagreements with me. BTW, I haven't found any of these indicators useful. (MACD, stoch, and almost every indicator known.).

That's true. I am glad I am no longer a pure fundamental investor. Otherwise these endless uncertainties freak me out completely.

It is more concerning that just "market price dipping". It is normal for a stock to pull back after a good run. What concerned me was the internals of the chart. The behavior of the chart looked like a top instead of a retracement before the continuation of another up move. I am not going to disclose how I use TA to analyze and draw these conclusions. Even if I do, I'll be labelled as voodoo one more time.

never meant to insinuate craig was fired. simplest explanation imo is that there was/is internal resistance within admin, as tim howard speculates, and craig either got fed up, protested, or saw nothing more he could do so he resigned I don't think Craig was fired, but it is hard to say if he left happily or unhappily, and then Calabria's comment changed from "IPO early next year" to "Hopefully IPO sometime next year" (Something like that. Don't hold me on this). That is a hint that something is changing. On top of that, Otting's 2-4 week promise never materialized. There is an incredible magic force that works on these guys, and works on the court as well. As we know, the Perry Appeal was supposed to be a 2:1 win, but some members here posted rumors that Ginsburg got flipped in the last moment. Could the same happen in the 5th appeal court? They just need to flip 1-2 judges to alter the outcome.

imo craig's abrupt resignation has to be interpreted in this context. occams razor explanation is that whatever happened to derail the original plan caused him to resign. what happens now, i dont think anyone has a clue... Well, whatever the plan is large investors are "ecstatic" about it as of June 7th. Fannie and Freddie stockholders were ecstatic at Calabria’s statements. “It’s exactly what we laid out,” one investor said. “The goal of this president is what can be done administratively. You can see there’s a focus on getting it done.” https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913 The chart tells me a different story. Since that time, the behavior has totally changed on the chart. I don't think ABA is a place where they have a collective interesting to make money for its readers. It is more like other forums like here or seeking alpha for spreading information. If these "insiders" really know something so "ecstatic", the chart behavior would not look like what we've seen since then. I wish it would be so easy to pay only $4500 a year to enter an elite circle whose members are so nice and considerate that they actually CARE about me making money. I've never seen a single financial writer who actually cares about whether his readers can make money off his articles.

How come you are bearish on this and still hold the position?

imo craig's abrupt resignation has to be interpreted in this context. occams razor explanation is that whatever happened to derail the original plan caused him to resign. what happens now, i dont think anyone has a clue... Well, whatever the plan is large investors are "ecstatic" about it as of June 7th. Fannie and Freddie stockholders were ecstatic at Calabria’s statements. “It’s exactly what we laid out,” one investor said. “The goal of this president is what can be done administratively. You can see there’s a focus on getting it done.” https://www.abalert.com/search.pl?ARTICLE=183913 The chart tells me a different story. Since that time, the behavior has totally changed on the chart. I don't think ABA is a place where they have a collective interesting to make money for its readers. It is more like other forums like here or seeking alpha for spreading information. If these "insiders" really know something so "ecstatic", the chart behavior would not look like what we've seen since then.

Here is my worthless prediction: Based on the charts, I would guess the to be released treasury plan favors common far more than preferred. It kinda makes sense because that's where treasury's upside comes from after 3rd amendment is killed. But how? Maybe preferred is converted to common at an unfavorable ratio?

13/16 reversals of merits panel appellate decision. I guess this tweeter went to rev/aff of original district court decisions. Got it. Thank you. Still, the timeline in this tweet is quite interesting. The longest so far is 244 days. Given the complexity of this case, I'd assume it takes that long, which puts us to October ruling.

A question for Chris. I was puzzled by this table here: It almost looks like 50-50 to me for affirm/reverse decisions. Didn't we say it was 14 reversals out of 16 before? :o

He moved to Russell Investment Center last Summer, which happens to be Zillow's Headquarter. I was lucky to meet him and his two daughters in the elevator recently. :)

For those who believe after all the industry wide talks with Craig Philips, who is supposed to keep a poker face, don't forget one thing: Craig Philips finished his work and currently seeking for a job on Wall Street. Guess what interview questions people on WS are gonna ask him? And what would he say to get the biggest offer package? ::)

who are you quoting? Wow, you are still not blocking emily?

I would recommend that you do not say 10 years or 5 years or whatever. Investing is Hard. I’ve seen countless people who said they commit 10 years, and give up in 5 years, or said they commit 2 years, and give up in 1. To be successful, you have to be “all in”. And tell yourself to spend the entire life to figure this out.

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019... We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly. And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital. My read on this is mainly related to the IPO not the NWS. If FHFA and Treasury decide on ending the NWS in the fall as previously discussed, they could easily come to an agreement in the fall with the last payment swept being ~ November which is when the Q3 payment is swept. That would set up the Q4 payment to be held to build capital in the ~Feburary. There is incentive for this to be done concisely and quickly as elections become the main focus by early 2020. Why not stop the sweep now?

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019... We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly. And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital. Isn't it interesting that since a few years ago, at the beginning of every year, I always thought FnF preferreds are the best idea of the year? Then it goes up, and then dives back. Hope that doesn't happen this year. We will have en banc coming. Not sure how that will play out. Why does this matter to you? You do not own any stock anymore. I continue to watch stocks that I don’t own.

Doesn't sound like Net Worth Sweep is going to be stopped in 2019... We will continue to engage with Treasury to develop a responsible plan to end the conservatorships – with a clear road map and mile markers – and to adjust the Treasury share agreements accordingly. And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital. Isn't it interesting that since a few years ago, at the beginning of every year, I always thought FnF preferreds are the best idea of the year? Then it goes up, and then dives back. Hope that doesn't happen this year. We will have en banc coming. Not sure how that will play out.

Thanks Luke. "And by sometime next year, my hope and expectation is that we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital." This caught my eye, in an unpleasant way. Hopefully, I am not reading too much into it, but starting to build capital next year (I have to think this means retained earnings not just capital raising) is a longer an more opaque timeline than what he has previously said. Not very reassuring. Edit: @luke Looks like you had the same reaction. Yeah.... I have two concerns for this. 1. "sometime next year". That may not even be 1st Q of next year. Maybe 2nd Q, or 3rd Q. 2. "we will be on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital." He didn't say "FnF will start to build capital", but "on the path where Fannie and Freddie can start to build capital.". This implies that the ACTUAL time when FnF starts to build capital may be even further away. Anyway, fundamental is not something I am good at. I was a bit concerned since Tuesday but decided to get out completely today. But that's purely based on my technical analysis.

I am completely sold out. (The third time this year) The chart looks weak. Good luck to everyone!

The market is the most brutal machine. I was just speaking from my personal experience. Ego is absolutely meaningless to me. When I started in 2010, these are the exact words that I wish someone could tell me.

I don't think this guy is serious. After so many posts and 3 days, he is not replying to anyone. I think he is just trying to find time to entertain himself by doing value investing. If that's the case, he definitely should stop. There is a famous quote from a great investor Ed Seykota: "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If this guy's primary objective is to be entertained, he will get that, but not money.

It may be more efficient to start the conversation with the amount of assets you have first. The answer would be completely different if you have 20M vs 1M. :) BTW, never trust your broker! To be successful, you have to be completely independent and do all the research and call all shots by yourself. I have not seen one successful investor who made it by listening to his broker. Therefore, the first step for you, if you really want to be in stocks right now, is to move brokerage to a discount broker to lower your cost. Fidelity is a good one because you can ask them to sweep your cash to their government obligation fund, which invests in 3 month treasury bills and pay 2% a year, and their commission per trade is low too. If you have a bigger account, you may consider interactive brokers. After you tell us the amount of money you have, I'll try to think of other advice for you.

his idea of greedy is getting convertible preferred with 10% dividend in companies with fortress balance sheets at depressed share prices. he wouldnt touch such a speculative investment as the gses with a 10 foot pole. I was referring to his quote as possible advice for what we may want to do, not a prediction for what he will do 10% dividend in companies with fortress balance sheets at depressed share prices.... Such as Solomon Brothers? :D

You must be kidding me............ You guys trust this kind of fake sources more than Technical analysis? If you ever think TA is non-sense, then this kind of fake sources as 1000% more non-sense. :o