muscleman

It is deleted. Why is Treasury dragging the feet? Hmm. It is suddenly Mnuchin and Calabria dragging this in court now.

the meat of Collins is in the APA claim IMO. it's cleaner and more direct. In addition, Calabria's change is an attempt to protect his job for a full term which makes sense. the pending Collins verdict is huge. a loss, and we're at the mercy of the govt, price targets and goals will likely be cut for both preferred and common. a win, and we have a real seat in negotiations. guessing here, but that's likely why things are stalled, everyone is waiting for this. I'm nervous for the outcome. Good luck, everyone. If Trump is the law and order guy, so should his workforce like Calabria. His attempt to defend the constitutionality of FHFA could have side effects in the long run. 1. Let's say we lose Collins, and Calabria magically makes preferred whole. Later when he steps down, a Dem appointed FHFA director could have so much power that he could do another 3rd amendment. What could you do then? 2. If the above concern is real, then the current IPO would be even harder, because shareholders would ask that same question. They won't do it unless they feel protected. 3. The fact that Calabria needs to defend his job implies that this recap process may take way longer than what we thought, which is bearish for us.

Thank you Chris. I guess it is wise to stop defending TA then. After all, people on this thread find it hard to understand. Let's use this thread to focus on the GSE events and fundamental analysis. I wouldn't be able to do well either without watching people posting those event here. For example, I didn't know Bill Maloni is the whack job. I didn't know he was spreading rumors about the 5th court ruling coming on that Friday afternoon. Those are the type of events that turned me from very bullish to bearish.

:o :o SnarkyPuppy, DRValue, you guys are just making fun of me right? I am stunned that you are stunned. I was lucky enough to be trained by a really great trader. He told me something like: "There are two types of poker players. The one that play aggreesively when they have good hands and fold when they don't. The one that always seek for actions. The second type don't even deserve success." While I am not saying which type you guys are, I would certainly be surprised that you guys think I would be the second type. ;)

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional. Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work? Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this. :o This is mind blowing to me. Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out. Forecasting is always easier in hindsight This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight? LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about? Well humor me then. What happens next? I don’t have a clear view of that right now.

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional. Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work? Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this. :o This is mind blowing to me. Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out. Forecasting is always easier in hindsight This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight? LOL. I can't talk about the past. I can't talk about the present. I can't talk about the future. What can I talk about?

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional. Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work? Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this. :o This is mind blowing to me. Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out. Forecasting is always easier in hindsight This is an absurd comment. I've always commented in real time. Where did you get the impression that I was talking about this in hindsight?

So now fhfa believe it's constitutional. Trying to push the decision back? Would that even work? Wow. I was busy working yesterday and just saw this. :o This is mind blowing to me. Once again the price behaviors change and TA warnings all over the place before bad news came out.

Errr.... The image is so blurry that it is painful to read. I did a quick glance and it seems to be a rehash of what we already expect, right?

I think I explained this but you probably missed it. Why do you assume that people only trade when the major news come out? People trade in anticipation of good and bad news. And sometimes even worst, players with insider info trade ahead of the news he KNOWS instead of guesses. Take yourself for example, do you buy FNMAS because you just heard some major good news? Or do you buy because you did your research and feel confident that some major good news will eventually come? TA is to analyze how traders as a whole group anticipates. It is too late to buy/sell when the news actually hit.

I don't recall if I have recommended that book, but I have definitely read that book. You have to be careful with the concepts in Intelligent investors. I don't think it is applicable anymore, and even buffet didn't use those concepts of NAV margin of safety. Munger taught him to focus on the moat. There are countless times when I bought a declining stock, thinking that I got a deal, and it is safe because there is margin of safety, and later some shocking news came out and I had to sell at big losses, which eventually caused me to quit value investing. Even GSE preferreds could be a very good example. There are countless times in this thread where we were really bullish, and stock was going up. Later it came down on unbelievable news. I learned that lesson and changed the way I operate. Most here will not tell you this. Just like my simple, underrated 5 month MA that to this day continues to hold the line and has shown NO sell signal since this last run, here is another simple -perhaps even useful- nugget. To learn, all you need is to be active in the market and be utterly observant. Become a student of the game. Continually and constantly. Along the way read some, hear some as a complement to your own observation. And be prepared to lose about $100,000 of your savings and 5 years to walk through several economic cycles. By far, the largest and most important lesson in this journey is about yourself. What you can safely handle, emotionally and intellectually, together with being patient. Yeah.... But the only problem is that such a slow MA won't be much useful when the tidy turns. It would likely go down 30% before you get out. I do use MA as one of my only few indicators, but only to get the idea that the trend is up. And I strongly agree that "By far, the largest and most important lesson in this journey is about yourself. What you can safely handle, emotionally and intellectually, together with being patient."

I don't recall if I have recommended that book, but I have definitely read that book. You have to be careful with the concepts in Intelligent investors. I don't think it is applicable anymore, and even buffet didn't use those concepts of NAV margin of safety. Munger taught him to focus on the moat. There are countless times when I bought a declining stock, thinking that I got a deal, and it is safe because there is margin of safety, and later some shocking news came out and I had to sell at big losses, which eventually caused me to quit value investing. Even GSE preferreds could be a very good example. There are countless times in this thread where we were really bullish, and stock was going up. Later it came down on unbelievable news. I learned that lesson and changed the way I operate.

Do not ever trade on hope and gut feelings. They will destroy your account. Trade on discipline! I replied not a few pages ago for the details. I use ThinkOrSwim for charting. I think Tradingveiw.com is also good. Other than that, I think my post there answers all of your questions. Damn........ I was using my mobile phone to view the page and somehow emily was not blocked, and I didn't check who I was replying too. So this will be my last post for him/her. Emily, not a long ago, I recommended that you read books about capital structures and bankruptcy investing to understand the difference of preferred vs common. You never read those kind of books do you? Then why ask me more questions? You'll never learn anyway. Maybe someone will view my posts as mean and harsh. But the market is never nice to lazy traders. The losses will reflect on his/her account as reality. I am simply trying my last time to help wake up this poor soul.

Do not ever trade on hope and gut feelings. They will destroy your account. Trade on discipline! I replied not a few pages ago for the details.

No expert accountants here? Found an interesting article. I guess I wouldn't need to know all the details in order to avoid considering leveraged ETFs then. Interesting that ETNs are the most tax efficient. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency

Do not ever trade on hope and gut feelings. They will destroy your account. Trade on discipline!

Yes, Moelis does call for the juniors to be converted at par. However, their projection for the offering price is so high that a FNMAS shareholder would get right around 2 commons per FNMAS share. I don't think that will fly since I agree with orthopa that the preferred holders will want to win versus the commons. They can turn down any conversion offer, and can even potentially convert at above par. I also don't get why the offering would happen at a price so far above today's price. This was probably a sop to Treasury to make it look like they could get a ton of money for their warrants, but I don't think that's realistic at all. I expect Treasury's warrants to be worth $50B if they're lucky, and more like $30B. The rest of your argument is nullified if the conversion happens before the offering, which I (and Moelis) believe will be the case. This protects the offering investors from being diluted by the conversion. The same goes for the warrants, if Treasury is going to exercise them they will do so before the offering. Total par value of all junior preferred shares is $33.24B. It's $19.13B for Fannie and $14.11B for Freddie. Thank you! So to avoid additional lawsuits, Treasury would have to exercise their warrants first, before getting the preferreds converted, yeah? And the market cap for FNMA is just 3 Bn, which means once treasury converts, it will be 15 Bn. Then Fanny preferred of 19 bn converts at par to common, making the market cap 34 Bn, diluting treasury by over 50%. Then some kind of re-IPO comes in for, say another 34 Bn, diluting both treasury and preferreds (both now already common) by another 50%. Does that sounds like a good deal to treasury? It doesn't look like that to me. Not sure if they care though. Not sure why preferred conversion seems like a must-do step in this restructuring to me. It only adds up complexity.

Speaking of the conversion rate, are the juniors going to care what price the IPO is set at as long as they get par? I didn't understand the latest Moelis plan, which called for juniors to get 2 or even fewer than 2 commons for every $25 in par value, even though the market ratio far exceeded that. The comments by orthopa about the preferred holders wanting to win versus the commons, not just getting par, has me thinking. I also don't see why the IPO would be conducted at prices 4-5 times what we see now. Won't the price be set by the market, and if so why assume such a high price? Why would the preferred shareholders behind the Moelis plan come out with something that advantages the commons so much more? my guess is that the major junior holders have argued like this: first, if you want to give us par in cash, that's fine. second, seeing that you dont want to do that and you would prefer to level the capital structure, we will convert into common at the re-IPO price. third, since you need 2/3rds of each class to force conversion and you need to settle lawsuits, we have these various other items to discuss (high on my list would be getting the $20B or so back into the companies beyond the 10% moment). now if the re-IPO price sinks, the junior who is about to convert is protected by getting more common shares. this is a very straightforward scenario in my view Convert at the re-IPO price? That seems like a pipe dream and even Moelis was not targeting that. Here is the biggest catch 22. Any institutional player aiming to buy the re-IPO would request that the lawsuit drop and that probably implies all consent to convert the preferred to common at a ratio as low as possible, so these players won't get too much dilution. And the preferred holders know if they aim at a favourible conversion rate, there will not be many buyers in the re-IPO. However, if it is converting at such a low price of 2 common shares per FNMAS, then that would be a big drop from the existing price of over 12.46. What would they do in this case? They would have to demand cash in this case to make them whole, which means no buyers in the re-IPO. Therefore, I think everyone is waiting on Collins at the moment. I could not imagine an investment banker plan saying, let's just ignore Collins, and just work out the re-IPO regardless of what the ruling say. Once the ruling is out, there may be a clearer path forward. Another thing to consider, does anyone know the total par value of all preferred shares? Is it something like 10 Bn? 20 Bn? 40 Bn? Whatever happened in that JPM meeting, I can't imagine the investment bankers keeping the lip so tight that no one is talking to their trading desk during lunch time. There will also likely be more than just JPM doing this re-IPO. How about Goldman Sachs?

It just occurred to me that a lot of you seem to have high hopes on the to be released treasury plan and expect price to sky rocket when it is released. What puzzles me is why Calabria mentioned previously that there will be a separate negotiation with Treasury regarding the net worth sweep later this year around October? If that's the case, then doesn't that mean that the treasury plan to be released will either be after October, or it will be released in July without touching this hardest part of the game?

Would any tax expert please share with me your thoughts on the tax consequences of the active ETFs, such as SSO? It is trading daily to adjust its positions, with a ton of complex derivatives. I would how would someone be taxed when holding this for a few months? How about other "active ETFs" who are actively managed with positions hand picked like a real mutual fund?

These guys help each other out though. The great wall between these departments is just fake. I’d rather trust more if they are talking to Goldman for this IPO, but it is also possible that they need all banks to work together for such a huge raise. I have a feeling that today maybe the low of this prolonged slide, but I don’t trade on feelings.

JP Morgan..... Isn't this the tbtf bank that tries to kill FnF? Keep in mind that this is the exact reverse of what happened two months ago. Back then, Gaspirino was bashing and stock was moving up. Now Gaspirino is pumping and stock is sliding down. With that said, I actually agree with all the analysis you guys did, so I still personally believe the story will work out.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo. :o I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty. I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective. I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA. I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic. but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you If you check all my prior posts, it tells you all. But I can give you a summary here. I don't buy/sell a stock because a magic fast moving average crosses a slower moving average. That's complete non-sense. What I do is to read the news and the FA, see who are bashing and pumping the stocks, and how the stock reacts. I had high confidence when white house published the paper in March because no way white house would be involved in pumping the stock. Then a few days later, there was a big bash by Gaparino, and I was watching that closely. At the end of the day, the stock completely recovered, and later that week, I noticed that the volume happened to be the lowest that week on the Gapirino bashing day. So I was even more bullish on the stock. Later it had a reasonable run, and I was still quite bullish, until the whack job Bill Maloni started spreading rumors that the Collins ruling was coming on Friday afternoon. That obviously didn't materialize, even on Monday. So that's a clear sign of warning. I waited for a few more days, and turned very bearish. I later decided to get out completely a few days after the Bloomberg sucker article with all kinds of false narratives came in. I thought that article was another bashing attempt like Gaspirino, which means stock should promptly recover and go to high grounds, but that didn't happen, so something else was going on. I sold out. Then Calabria changed his tune from "IPO in the 1st Quarter next year" to "Hopefully sometime next year". So that's a clear sign of negativity. I still think a lot of discussions here make sense, so I am still closely watching this, hold a lot of cash, and be ready to get in again.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo. :o I think all investors (especially in GSEs) are trying to predict future events under conditions of uncertainty. I typically use my research and life experience to make this analysis...very subjective. I suppose reading charts is more objective, until you hear all of the subjective discussion about what is the right why to do TA. I have seen TA that makes very precise assertions about future action and this is the part that seems delving into black magic. but if it keeps you sane and even makes some money for you I'm all for it...for you There are lots of naive TA traders who are new to the market and just learned the magic of buying a stock because one fast moving average cross a slow moving average, or a stochastic indicator is oversold. Those things are complete non-sense and voodoo. I used to be that kind of guy when I was 18, and got my whole forex account wiped out. (only $800 though, but still meaningful even how young I was and how little I earn when I was in China). I gave up TA completely for a decade, and learned FA really hard, until I realized that I am really not the type of guy who can sit tight reading 10-Ks 100 hours a week. Then I came back to TA and tried to study it with a different angle, and I like what I am doing so far.

No intention for insult, but if this is the kind of technical analysis you do, no wonder why you guys all think TA is just non-sense and voodoo. :o