muscleman

I don't have high hopes for that. A few of you guys were upset that I was focusing on tweets, whack job Maloni's rumors etc. and you said you would only want to listen to Calabria, Mnuchin etc. So let's talk about these folks. Calabria changed his tone from IPO Q1 2020 to hopeful sometime 2020 on June 13th or so. Kudoos to one of our members finding that detail out. Calabria filed in Collins and changed his position and stated FHFA is consistutional. OK. People here got upset, but a possible twist is that he needs to keep his job if Trump is not re-elected in 2020. But what does that imply? That implies that the current recap and release plan is not going to go as quickly as originally expected. Then the 2024 talk this week. I think those give some hints on what the current treasury plan looks like. In terms of Collins, I am a complete legal fool, so just read my post for fun. Assuming government has connections to the judges and already know what they are writing, and assuming Calabria wants to get GSE out of conservatorship. I think the second assumption is very high confidence, while the first assumption is lower confidence. 1. Plantiff will win. In this case, Calabria should not have to file the claim that he now believes FHFA is constitutional. He can just relax for another few months, and after the ruling, void NWS, and release Fannie and Freddie. 2. Plantiff will lose. In this case, Calabria is thinking, since the judges are giving them a lose, it is better to also file the claim to make sure FHFA is consistutional, so he can still keep the job until 2024. In that case, he bought more time to achieve his goal. Therefore my guess here is that Collins is a loss for plaintiffs. It seems reasonable if we can assume that the government has connections to the judges and already know what they are writing. If my assumption is wrong, then the above logic is invalid. Question for Chris, how likely do you think that the government already knows what the outcome of Collins will be? Could someone in treasury be talking to the judges, underscoring the importance of housing reform, and demanding that they know in advance what the result will be? I don't see how the treasury plan can be complete without knowing Collins outcome first, do you?

I am not going to talk about TA anymore here.

I use http://www.quantumonline.com/ You can put in the preferred's symbol, and you'll see all the details regarding par value and other things. I think one of our members posted an excel doc with the complete list of preferreds before. You may dig into this thread to try to find it out. But personally I'd just trade FNMAT, FMCKJ, FNMAS. They have tight spread and high liquidity. The other ones are pain in the ass to move in and out.

orthopa and others, I think I'll give up trying to help. As Buffet said, for value investing, either people get it instantly, or you can keep talking about it for the rest of your life, and people won't get it. I think the same applies to other styles of investing, or trading, if you want to label it that way. I have been quietly lurking this thread for many years, wondering what I can contribute. I finally thought I could be helpful earlier this year, but all I got was disbelief and people taunting at me. I think Buffet is right on this aspect. Time to stop wasting you FA experts time and distraction on my little voodoo.

I don't see any sign of bottom yet. However I don't have much skills picking bottoms. Looking at the chart since Jan 19, $2.50 looks like support to me. There aren't any catalysts until the plan late August unless something leaks, and the timeline has potentially been pushed out. Trading should probably follow the trend until more news. No idea where we end up if we breach $2.50. I haven't the tools to see what a moving average would suggest. Any thoughts? If you are not a TA expert, then you shouldn't try to do TA like this. The bottom could happen at a previous bottom, or it could happen somewhere between that 2.5 bottom to the $14 top. (Some TA uses fibonacci levels to draw various lines between a major bottom to major top, which I think is voodoo.). Or it could happen below 2.5. Who knows. The only thing I know is that a bottom will form when there are large buying forces, and we don't know it until we see large buying happening. I am not interested in studying bottom picking, and I haven't found many TAs who succeed in it. I once saw an interview with Paul Tutor Johns (Or maybe someone else. I am bad at names), who said journalists like to write sensational headlines like "Paul picked the Dow futures bottom within 2 ticks", but the reality is that he finally picked that bottom within 2 ticks, on the 6th try. His first 5 tries all got stopped out.

Who exactly is it that is "arrogant and thinks they are smarter than everyone else in the world?" If you're going to make statements like that, name names. Also, Mr. Market slaps everyone down at some point regardless of personalities or intentions. All your post boils down to is pure schadenfruede, gloating over having made one good move. I really thought you were better than this. I don't have a good memory for names who taunted me. But I always remember people who helped me. Let me tell you who I respect the most in this thread. First is Chris. Second is Luke. :)

I don't see any sign of bottom yet. However I don't have much skills picking bottoms.

To me, what makes me feel concerned is the tweet that the treasury plan has been in white house for weeks, where "weeks" probably means early June, and that's right around the time the stock peaked. That's the major bearish sign. Regarding the "material news" yesterday, I don't have any ability to analyze the fundamentals better than most of you. I just saw lots of reference and comments yesterday, so I thought that implies material news.

I was never pissed by rude comments from them because I know sooner or later Mr market will slap people who are arrogant and think they are smarter than everyone else in the world.

oh. sorry.. I explained it to you just two days ago over DM, and you replied: oh. Maybe I missed the no news part. I thought you said heavy selling. :facepalm: Yeah....... Sorry about that. At that time you said you didn't sell because the Bloomberg news was totally fake, so I got the impression that you would sell if some material news came out.

oh. sorry..

You said previously if it goes down big volume with material news, you'd sell. Is today the day?

We could see a trading bottom today. there's no urgency to buy and plenty of people urgently want out. actually using Buffett's greedy when others fearful meme, today looks like a very good time to buy Be careful Chris. Are you a market timer now? Do you think I can time it better than you? :)

Thanks. I tried to help people improve because they've been helping me with all the useful information on fundamentals. Keep in mind that there is always information asymmetry for any stock. It is totally naive to think that a fundamental retail investor can be so smart and hard working that he could made better decisions than the institutions. The rumor that the treasury plan has been in the white house for weeks earlier this week made me ultra bearish. Could weeks mean early June? That's right around the time when the stock price peaked, and I started to see crack on the canary of the coal mine. Is that a pure coincidence?

We could see a trading bottom today. I disagree. I'd like to outline what people are saying and hoping, and let's see if there are anyone who will learn the lesson and improve. 1. Calm down guys, it is only a 7% minor decline from all time high. Hold on! 2. Last Friday: Oops, it is down another 14%, but it closed strong and at the end of the day, it is only down 6%, and the Bloomberg article is totally fake! Hold on! 3. Today: Oops, it is down anther 7%. It has gone down so much that it must be the bottom! Hold on! What's next?

I know what you meant. You are a great attorney and you focus on real events like Collins and admin reform. I handle it differently though. My guess is that Maloni wrote that blog message for a reason. Either someone who wanted to sell baited him with such false information to pump the stock up so they can get out without bashing down the price, or Maloni is part of that game directly. Otherwise how could he just wake up one day and started day dreaming about Collins decision coming that afternoon? Unless he is a psychic, there is no way this could happen. The gasp tweet is also important to me. When big players are bullish, they will pay such guys to spread bad news to scare people out so they can load up the position without raising the price. While these events may be non-sense to pure FA investors, they are very important to TA traders like me.

It is part of my technical indicator actually. As I said before, when Gaspirino bashed hard and GSE shares didn't move much in May or maybe April, I was ultra bullish. Later when Maloni lied about "coming Collins on Friday", I turned bearish. This time, if the treasury plan comes to the White House in early June, right around when the stock topped and started steady declining, that's what I would turn ultra bearish. You said this is an event driven stock. Yes it is. That's why I focus on these events.

This is getting interesting...... I wonder when did the treasury plan get to the white house? Is that early June? I was ultra bullish and even predicted an accelerated run up back in the end of May, but then in early June I started to see very suspicious technicals to the point where I had to sell out the whole position. I wonder if someone already knows the details of the treasury plan and started selling heavily since early to mid June.

I have more time now so I’ll elaborate. One of the members said a few times that we were all fine because the price has never breached the 5 month MA. It was breached last Friday. Did he sell? I am 100% sure he didn’t because the way he was talking about the MA was clearly a rationalization to come up with reasons for holding. The other member privately messaged me that he didn’t believe the top was in because he didn’t see high volume down days, which we saw last Friday. Did he sell? Did he sell? I am 70% sure he didn’t either. Please let me know if my guesses are correct. I feel confident about my guesses because I’ve gone through all of these myself.

The last few trading days’ posts

Just a reminder, a lot of GSE investors on this thread don’t seem to have a plan to exit their positions. Whenever some bad news came out, keep rationalizing why it is ok, and that’s not a solid plan. Selling at par is the maximum goal but most optimistic goal would not be the baseline goal for your trading plan.

I want to be clear I was never taunting you. Others maybe were, but I wasn't. Your points are appreciated but they still have to do with pricing of a security and don't take into account the thesis of the underlying company. The stocks could be down 50% today, does that change the thesis? No. The stocks could be up 50% today, but again doesn't change the thesis. As a value investor the buy price and sell price matter to me, what happens in the interim is irrelevant. I think most value investors would tell you to sell when the stock is at or near intrinsic value. It's probably not discussed more because it seems like that would be the only logical place for someone in the value investing philosophy to sell... we wouldn't hold it past intrinsic value, and we wouldn't be tempted to sell it at a steep discount from intrinsic value. I never felt like you taunted me. Don’t worry about that. However a 50% drop of a stock sometimes bounces back and sometimes not. By claiming a 50% drop has nothing to impact on its fundamentals is a flawed statement because I’ve seen a lot of times when bad news come out later after the stock moves. It is too idealistic to assume others know the same information to act on as you are. A lot of times these big drops tell you that someone knows something that you don’t know. But also sometime like the FMCKJ top where they probably already know these info but started selling day after day on low volume to avoid panicking others to also sell with them. That’s the crack of the canary of the coal mine type top.

Sure, but I am more disappointed on the report being delayed. It's likely not the actual IPO taking place that moves the stock, it's the plan to do so officially being announced (along with other details involving the capital raise, how to deal with the lawsuits, etc.). I'm not into trying to time things like you are, so there's no way I'd sell a single share given the price relative to par and what I believe is a very strong thesis for the preferred shares. And for what it's worth, I fully expect the share prices to fall based on people selling some or all of their position. It's easier to sell a position when it's small. I'd rather have the price temporarily fluctuate against me than sell a large position that would take a long time to reacquire and likely at higher prices given the illiquid nature of the preferreds. what you mentioned about illiquidity is exactly what I felt last year. I have the ability to time stocks but a lot of times I didn’t sell because of the same reason you mentioned and then it just kept falling and falling and eventually I got out when it was way down. Not related to GSEs but other super illiquid name in general. So this year I am only focusing on stocks that I can build positions within one day. A few days ago when people were Taunting me and saying down 7% from the top is nothing to worry about, now it is down another 14% today. Be very careful of the crack of the canary of the coal mine situation. My biggest shortcoming as a value investor was not knowing when to sell. Almost the entire value investing literature is teaching how to buy and what to buy (not even when to buy). Regarding selling, there is almost no mention of that. Last year my primary focus was to figure that out.

More delays. Not entirely unexpected, but frustrating for sure... Perhaps most significantly, Treasury and FHFA could halt a policy that requires the companies to send nearly all their earnings to the Treasury. Though one person familiar with the matter cautioned that ending the so-called profit sweep is unlikely to happen this year. Signs that the administration is moving more slowly than anticipated are evident. The Treasury is yet to issue a long-awaited report on its plan for getting Fannie and Freddie out of the government’s grip, despite Calabria saying he hoped it would be released by the end of June. Now, agencies are aiming to get the document out within the next couple of months, according to people familiar with the matter. By the way, not sure if this matters, but Josh Rosner is calling B.S. on this article: Disappointing for sure. But I don’t think it is BS. Remember Calabria’s tone changed from IPO in Q1 next year to Hopefully sometime next year? That’s good enough indication for me to completely unload even if I were still a pure FA investor. If I were still hoping on Collins, at least I’d sell half.

I certainly am not privy to what the leaders are thinking -- and its reasonable to not want to address this complex task -- but this article's message is not inconsistent with a team who is waiting on a Collins verdict and is attempting to buy time. Is it waiting for Collins or is it trying to delay Collins?