giofranchi

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/219499/vulture-investing-guru-wilbur-ross-calls-bank-of-ireland-his-best-recent-investment giofranchi

USD bull market. giofranchi Daily+5.20.13.pdf

Wow! As the saying goes, all’s well that ends well! ;) twacowfca, enjoy your new town, I am sure it is a real pleasure to live in! But… also be careful!! Your amazing financial prowess won’t make a racing bike win against a golf cart anytime soon!! ;D ;D ;D Best regards, giofranchi

What is happening to Gold is clear enough evidence to me that it doesn’t behave like a currency. And among currencies not only the USD is the strongest of a bad lot, it actually remains the only game in town. So, if you believe in holding some cash as a strategic asset, to be used opportunistically when a compelling investment finally presents itself, then hold US dollars. giofranchi

+1!!!! ;) giofranchi

http://www.usdebtclock.org/ giofranchi

Well, it seems to me that debt in the past has always led to war, not the other way around… Total debt / GDP peaked at 300% in the US by 1933, then WWII raged from 1939 to 1945… Let’s hope we have become wiser… still, we must find a solution to all the debt accumulated during the last 60 years… and European banks must be recapitalized, just like US banks were… I don’t understand how this will be pretty… giofranchi

--Zero Hedge giofranchi

Diminishing Returns giofranchi

I received my copy a few days ago and I agree! The right opportunity to reread Mr. Buffett’s letters once again! :) giofranchi

I agree 100%! And, Sanjeev, fantastic letter! 8) giofranchi

Eric, with the only possible exception of 2009, have you ever seen things break down and then find support at “fair value”? I am not saying things will break down, what I am saying is just that, if things do actually break down, this time might be very different than back in 2009. That time the central banks around the world had their guns fully loaded, now interest rates are as low as they can be and money printing is as rampant as it can be… not many bullets left to shoot! What will keep this time the markets, if they do actually break down, from reaching fair value and proceeding downward? Mr. Shilling himself has often repeated that this secular bear in stocks will end with S&P500 earnings of 80 and a multiple of 10: S&P500 at 800. giofranchi

I would also add that Mr. Loeb needs a lot of capital: how else could he implement his activist strategy? To be successful at what he did with Yahoo and what he is trying to do now with Sony, he needs enough capital to control a significant portion of the shares outstanding, then to ask for board seats, and finally to agitate for changes. And still without betting the whole fund on a single idea! giofranchi

The latest speech by Mr. Fisher of the FED in Dallas. giofranchi Fiscal-Policy-Oy-130516.pdf

Part 5 in attachment. giofranchi “As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes Part 6 in attachment. giofranchi Part 7 in attachment. giofranchi on-insurance-investing-part-7-final.pdf

Very good piece by Mr. David Hay and his staff on Mr. Gundlach, Mr. Rosenberg, Mr. Ferguson, Mr. Bass, Mr. Shilling, Mr. Roubini, Mr. El-Erian, Mr. Louis Gave, and Mr. Charles Gave. giofranchi PS For those who had the pleasure to attend Mr. Mauldin’s Strategic Conference, like David, of course this is old news. For those who couldn’t, myself included, it might be of some interest. :) EVA+5.17.2013+NA.pdf

Yesterday I read what is said to be one of the most famous letters in the history of American business. After the discovery of treachery by some partners of his, Mr. Vanderbilt wrote: That magnificent son of a bi…!! ;D giofranchi

Hi muscleman, I partially, but not fully, agree with you. Mr. E. H. Harriman was used to say: So, after appreciating from $10.45 (my purchase price) to $14.80 in 8 months, and in the meantime also distributing a 5% special dividend at year end 2012, for a total return of little less than 50%, TPOU is now trading at a 9% discount to NAV ($16.31, see file in attachment). It is obvious that, if you are interested in a “quick and easy” 10%, EXO.MI at a wider discount to NAV might be a better choice than TPOU. Vice versa, if you are interested in something that will grow, I still prefer TPOU. I simply think “the opportunistic son of a bi…” business model of Mr. Loeb is far superior to the EXOR’s more static business model. After closing the gap to NAV, sincerely I don’t see how EXOR could grow as fast as Third Point. And Third Point will grow: 1) After increasing NAV per share 22.5% last year, it has already increased NAV per share 18.4% in 2013, both far above its long term track record, despite the $13 billion under management. 2) Mr. Loeb focuses on “special situations” of any kind: in stocks, in bonds, in real estate, in currencies, etc. The markets he operates in are huge! And compared to them $13 billion are just a flimsy sum of money. 3) When AUM will actually start to become too large (many years from now) and therefore to impair results, Mr. Loeb will give money back to shareholders through special dividends. For those who reinvest the dividends, TPOU might still continue to be a compounding machine. So, I prefer EXOR right now as a trading opportunity, while I still prefer TPOU as a long-term investment. giofranchi 2013-05-15-Estimated_NAV_Announcement.pdf

Thank you Kraven! I will surely purchase it and enjoy its reading! :) Best regards, Gio

Comstock Partners, Inc. - Why We Remain Bearish giofranchi Why_We_Remain_Bearish.pdf

Coming soon: Europe's biggest economy will be U.K. giofranchi Coming_soon_Europe-s_biggest_economy_will_be_UK.pdf

On last November 25, 2012, rjstc wrote me the following message: Barely 6 months later, Mr. Loeb is trying to take precisely that course of action with the letter in attachment: very nice call, Ron!! ;) giofranchi Dan-Loeb-Third-Point-Letter-to-Sony1.pdf

Please, find them in attachment. giofranchi Hussman_WineCountryConference_130405.pdf Mauldin_Unsustainability_WCC.pdf Martenson_Shifting_Baselines_WCC.pdf Chanos_CHINA_PRES_for_Wine_Country_Conference_April2013.pdf Mish_Wine_Country_Conference_2013.pdf

Wow!! To hear Mr. Tepper's case for markets really makes me feel like I am being cautious and conservative at the worst time possible… basically, it makes me feel like a fool! :( giofranchi Mr. Tepper's chart. giofranchi tepperchart.pdf

Wow!! To hear Mr. Tepper's case for markets really makes me feel like I am being cautious and conservative at the worst time possible… basically, it makes me feel like a fool! :( giofranchi