hyten1

Palantir, i am a little confused, are you guys just looking at FCF/s in isolation? meaning at one point a company as $1 FCF/s and this company use the FCF to buy back share now suddenly its $1.2 FCF/s (since the number of share count has gone down for argument sake by 20%). if you just look at FCF/s in isolation, you will be mislead in thinking there is 20% growth in FCF/s, but in reality there isn't (well there is depends on how you look at it, you now own more of the company, but the total FCF hasn't grown) what exactly is the problem? i don't think you can just look at FCF/s in isolation without taking into account what is going on within the firm, if you are then there will be problems, just like any metric you look at in isolation, even the trusty PE ratio. using FCF as sole metric in isolation can also mislead (this thread is a good example). also look at the other way, what if company issue more shares and FCF stay the same, obviously same problem. just my 2 cents hy True, I am being lazy with the definitions. I would say the relevant metric for DCFs should be "Adjusted FCF" = FCF - Buybacks. In your scenario, if the firm suddenly stops buying back, then Adjusted FCF = FCF, and then growth becomes 0, which essentially is the pre-buyback state, although now with higher FCF/s due to the buybacks. Now if the firm returned all its FCF to shareholders via dividends, and assuming that no other cash was returned, then in that case, I would not revise the FCF figure downwards, as all FCF immediately flows to shareholders, and more importantly that cash is not reinvested to create growth in FCF/share. Therefore Adj. FCF = FCF, and growth is unchanged.

- buying stock that i didn't know much about, bought it due to what others have said - not buying nflx around 50 (waiting for 40's)

There are about 12 to 15 different series. Take your pick. The majority of mine are in FNMAK & FNMAM valuecfa why FNMAK & FNMAM? just curious there are many issue.

folks any know about this https://diamondsclassaction.com? just wondering if anyone knows, i suddenlyt recieved a check today from these guys, was very skeptical at first, but seems legit. hy

http://journalrecord.com/2013/06/28/pd-rx-pharmaceuticals-awarded-federal-contract/ oddballstocks, how do you usually track/receive/find these press releases? do you setup some sort of google alert for every company you track? It might be me, but can't fidn a press release anywhere.

i think saying buffett will look at micro caps only (when he manages small amounts) is little short sighted and underestimate "the man" i think buffett will find/look at whatever has the best value relative to price, that could be micro, that could be large cap, that could be korean stocks, that could be "whatever opportunity". i think its equally limiting to say "i focus on micro caps" vs "i focus on quality biz". I understand you only have so much time/energy to spend on research etc. i guess for me, i'll look at anything (maybe that is too broad maybe i should focus more). i'll follow/track various blogs, investors etc etc. with different focus concentration etc. but i do have to say i have not been as successful in micro/nano caps vs none micro/nano, that is just me. also many nano/mico caps have so low liquidity, my transaction cost eat up a good portion of the return. again this is just me. jmho

i think survivourship bias is a very important point. - i tend to think the level of expertise/experience needed for a very diversified portfolio is lower (more people can do this and achieve average results) - i tend to think on a percentage basis vs the diversified portfolio more portfolio blow up in the concentrated portfolio. no sure how to take this into account. i guess what we are really looking for is, for a investor that is experience/knowledgeable which portfolio setup would do better diversified vs none. (has this already been stated?) wouldn't it be easier just to look a the top managers break them up into diversified vs concentrated and see which group has a better performance long term? i guess even this is not easy to do :) hy

giofranchi, you refer to good biz, i think that is the difference, for others (i don't want to put words in other peopls mouth), at least for me i look at it as opportunities. as long as the delta btw price vs value is wide (how wide depends on the opportunity/situation) i will take a look and initiate a position. i think maybe one day if i get to the point where i have enough capital and don't want to be so involve with investing, i'll look for the BEST companies at a reasonable price and just park my money. I believe since my capital is relatively small, if i am going to actively manage it i'll look for the best delta in price vs value that i can find (of course within my circle of competency etc etc.). but i do have to say and repeat what eric said before. I don't care where i get the idea from, i am very happy and willing to copy others ideas and make money off it. actually most of my investment are from others, only very few was more my original ideas. EDIT: Also the funny thing is i suck at research, i usually like to read others research, work, etc. i'll decide base on what i read from others :) sad but true. i am shameless, i am not great at research, but i think i am better at compiling the info and decide if its a good idea or not base on what others have painstaking dug up. jmho, i could be wrong on all this stuff. hy

giofranchi, that is interesting, i usually tend to think "everything has its price" it could the ugliest dog in the world but at a certain price i'll take a look at it. its all about the delta btw value and price. see you are more focus on the absolute value not the relative. just my humble opinion. hy Thank you, Packer! In this we actually differ… I don’t pay much attention to the consensus view or to Mr. Marks, when he says there is a bargain price for every asset… vice versa, I want to own only businesses that I reckon good businesses, led by capable and trustworthy people. In other words, I wouldn’t have invested in a textile business in the 1960s or in a newspaper in the 2000s (many other examples are, of course, available), nor I would partner with idiots or villains (with the glaring exception of Mr. Biglari, of course!! ;D), no matter the price that is offered to me. This might be a serious limitation of mine. giofranchi

i am still trying to break the magical 20% annualized return barrier. my first 5 years i was very diversified, but within the last 5 years or so i started to be more concentrated where 2 or 3 of my holdings comprise over 60 to 70% of my entire portfolio. the performance # have been a lot better since the concentration, but also more volatile (then again it could just be a coincidence, who knows). but with concentration, you need a lot more patience. in the past i would just buy a small position of quite a few things, since i have so many positions and they are usually small, i didn't need to do a lot of research, but it is a very different story now. i still dabble with small position, but they are usually very tiny and as place holder until either i am convince they should be a larger position or stay as tiny positions. i have also started using leverage through options. the difference in performance is definitely noticeable for me (like i said, this could all be due to luck, coincidence and/or timing). pre concentration i was doing 12 to 15%, but since concentration it is more like 20 to 28% annualized.

Order of preference - paper / laptop / tablet - iPad - small tablet like kindle Paper and laptop both have adv and disadvantage, with laptop I get the big screen and I can search, good old paper I cannot search, there are other pro and cons to each But most tablet are just too small and to use to read filings, reading book and article they are good at

good read in relation to this post http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/The%20Role%20of%20Confidence_08_05_13.pdf best sentence "It is easier to know what to do at the extreme, than it is in the middle ground, where i believe we are today"

i am also in the process of switching from td ameritrade to fidelity td is somewhat limiting and being the cheapsake that i am fidelity's commission are just a tad cheaper hy

i have a bunch of yahoo finance portfolio i track different type of stocks i set the low and high limit for the price hy

sorry off topic here is an ad by johnnie walker that resurrected bruce lee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96o4BK-AcUk

uccmal why do you think the banks will disappoint next week? considering how jpm and wfc have done recently (their earnings) hy

anyone watching, tracking the various mReits stocks? i know the risk (rising rates), what does everyone think? will the rates rise as fast as the market is pricing in? hy

i never say never

oddballstocks, my sentiments exactly. i am no mr kass, i am sure he knows a lot more than me. but i guess i am just skeptical and uneasy with someone like him promoting this on and on when its such a small position of his portfolio (i honestly have more respect with someone who has a LARGE position and they promote it). this presentation of his has been done many a time in various events etc. for years now. not saying he is right or wrong (personally i don't like so much debt and I agree too much debt is not a good thing) but i guess it just don't sit well with me his style promoting disaster if he is really concern there are other more discrete ways or doing it. but we all know that is not his primary concern. he is out to make a buck and I guess that is just not how I like to see it done, especially when what he is promoting is a DISASTER. maybe, maybe for some "minute" chance WITHOUT his promotion, things can work out for the better for Japan. maybe his constant promotion is the tipping point between a DISASTER vs a hard long way for Japan to work itself out (I guess you can argue maybe its due to his promotion that save Japan, but we will never know). I just rather not be the one that might have cause a DISASTER no matter how small the chance might be. hy Not to mention all the marketing glory he's getting... I continue to pound the table on this issue, there are great investors, and there are great marketers. You can be a rich fund manager with mediocre performance. Or a fund manager with great performance who barely scrapes by because they can't sell. Investments are a commodity product for the most part, the difference is in the sales. Bass is a great marketer, the genius of this trade is he can promote it and promote it and it might take years to happen, all the while gathering assets. If it fails it's 1% of his portfolio, he's not hurt. If it works he can tout it and gather more assets, he wins no matter what happens. Note that HE wins, his investors have a chance of winning, but HE will win no matter how this works. I am always skeptical of people who are rooting for failure. As Buffett says the world is biased towards growth, when Japan/Europe/US start to deal with their debt problems I have a feeling some novel and creative solutions no one has thought about will emerge because the problem is very large indeed. But maybe the solutions will be novel enough that the great destruction everyone is waiting for never occurs. I sometimes think about second order effects with Japan as well. As Plan mentioned they are a creditor nation, they also hold a LOT of Treasuries. What if they decide to sell all of their Treasury holdings to support the Yen, I can't imagine China would stand still and watch the price drop. Maybe China dumps their holdings as well, the one who gets screwed in the deal is the US who'd see rates spike as the price fell. Maybe this is a plausible scenario, maybe it's just as contrived as Bass' scenarios, time will tell.

i am always looking for company trading well below IV, reading/contemplating/responding to this pos have not stop me from doing that Hold your nose and go look for good businesses that are selling well below their IV. While the market looks expensive I think there are still bargains to be found in the sub 300 mil area. Also I thought the best question was about the counterparty risk. Defiantly some food for thought.

the question is how do you profit from this or not lose money from this

please forgive my ignorance, i just want to throw this out there for arguement sake giofranchi mention the following: have you ever tried to live with a debt burden that is 3 times your yearly income? have you ever saved, and invested in productive enterprises, just 2% of your yearly income? Now, if you think of the question from and micro/individual level the answer "yes", it is actually a very common phenomenon (now on a macro and nation level that is beyond me) a phenomenon that i think most of you wouldn't even blink or worry about if you heard your friend or someone you know are in. A typical US family could be making lets say $100k (1 income or 2 income combine) a year with a take home of approx $65k. This family might have a 30 year mortgage of $200k with a interest rate of lets say 5%. - $200k is approx 3x $65k - The national average saving rate is approx 2.5% Now I for one would never do something like above. I personally save a lot more than 2% of my income nor do I have 3x of debt compare to my income. The question is how do you folks feel about the financial situation of the family/individual? On a micro level. Also to accurately access the financial situation of the family there are few things I would like to know for example: 1. How much asset/saving does this family have ($0 vs $500k would make a huge difference) 2. The likely hood of this family losing its $100k income. 3. Since the debt is lock in at 5% (30 yr mortgage) we don't have to worry about interest rate changing. This discussion is beyond me, I honestly don't know what will happen, my gut says I don't like debt, but that doesn't mean the debt will led to disaster. If you talk to our grand parents or their grand parents generation their jaws would drop to hear above #. In the past people save up to buy a home. But now the above scenario is a very common thing. The above family can easily service the debt, sure not if they lose their income, that is why how much asset they have is very important. EDIT: I guess the question i have is, why does the above # look ok for a typical family (I think thats how people would feel), but people go nuts when its on a national level (arguable the fed/gov has more weapon to deal with the debt/income situation vs an individual). JMHO. hy

internet access? not sure how to capitalize on it

i feel bad for the guy

buy a franchise