LC

The problem with youtube is that it also appeals to "advertising". Everyone with a Youtube channel wants more views to make more $$$.

Frankly, if any man knows what's in a woman's heart...well they're a damn genius :)

Not fully! Market cap is 465B as of today. If you accept the multiples I posted, it's worth ~600B!

Rationale behind using a10x earnings multiple? Earnings since 1999 have doubled 5 times. Does it matter? You're looking at a 13% discount to IV when using a 10x multiple. You can go thru and plop a market (~20x) multiple on the wholly-owneds and justify an even larger discount ;D I put the following multiples on each business line: underwrite - 10x energy - 20x railroad - 20x financial - 10x manuf/service/retail - 15x You wind up with a 30% discount to IV

I disagree with Charlie here! Thinking of death (how he puts it) can be liberating. I'll probably never outperform, and if I ever do, it will probably be the result of pure luck. Nothing wrong with that! I enjoy making investment/allocation decisions, and even if I don't beat the index, I don't care!

:) ++ Yep, noticed that too haha Aren't there government budget reports which detail accounting flows? It seems it would be pretty simple to prove.

Low growth prospects. I think the general consensus is many of these blue-chips are close to saturated in their markets.

Yes Congress is a check on the President's actions...my sense is that Trump really shook up the republican party, and the republican congressmen don't know where their allegiances lie...so even if they did disagree with Trump, they are hesitant to really "check" him. But you're right: we're lucky enough to have a strong foundation with a gov't with checks and balances, unlike a blatant dictatorship or oligarchy. In terms of Obama's biases, my view is that, although the biases were there, Obama at least let his opponents have a seat at the table. Take the White House Correspondents Dinner (Trump just announced he will not attend). Obama attended and, admittedly, took blatant shots at his opponents, but he showed up and let them show up as well. Finally, in terms of the Press. To me it's pretty simple...regardless who is the President, we live in a democracy. He doesn't get to define what is "rational" enough to get aired. Freedom of the Press is pretty straightforward. Trump can argue that that the Press is unfair to him. The other side can rebut: Well if Trump thinks entire Press is out to get him, maybe it's because they have valid reasons. In some sense, it comes with the territory (as the saying goes, if you cant take the heat...)

Business as usual is good, I would assume. Especially when business as usual is the way that Buffett has compounded money over his professional lifetime.

Your first point on Presidential influence, I have two comments: 1. The president obviously has influence, beyond just Tump. For example, Obamacare has had such a huge influence that one of Trumps biggest campaign points was promising to repeal it. Then we get to trade agreements like TPP, etc. Finally we can point to Trumps executive order attempting to close the borders...this had an immediate and large impact on people's lives (people being stopped at the border, everyone else traveling thru Int'l airports, to the lawyers and protestors) 2. Isn't this exactly what one would say when another is doing a really, really bad job? "Well, at least he doesn't have any power!" The press: irregardless of their "spin", news outlets (especially big name ones i.e. NY Times, BBC) disseminate information to the entire country. Limiting their access of dissenting news outlets is limiting the information available to the entire country. In this case, Trump allows only the "spin" that Trump wants heard. That is pretty undemocratic if you ask me. Also, i learned this recently (just some fun trivia): the word "ostracize" comes from the Ancient Greek word for "shell". Athenians would write the name of a person they believed a "threat to the democracy" on seashells. After the tally, that person was ostracized from the country.

Stupidity, racism, sexism, incest, and flat out lies. But you know.... Just that damn PC shit!

Since we get a lot of fish (Salmon and Halibut) in the summer we have a vacuum packer and we separate the hamburger and chicken into smaller packages. We usually cook the hamburger up so it is ready to toss into a meal. You could do this with ziplocs as well. I sure wish we had had a Costco around when the kids were growing up. You can probably save more with the store's "lost leaders" but what is your time worth. Oh man, I would love to do this. I just need a bigger place and a deep freezer. One thing I would look into if you don't already, is sous-vide cooking. I bought a $20 dongle off ebay (http://www.ebay.com/itm/131531511761?_trksid=p2057872.m2749.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT) that my slow-cooker plugs into. It cooks some of the best ribeyes I've ever had. Better than the majority of the NYC steakhouses I've been to. Pretty hands-off, too. These guys did an amateur experiment on cooking the perfect steak via sous-vide: http://www.seriouseats.com/2015/06/food-lab-complete-guide-to-sous-vide-steak.html Here's a halibut one: http://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2016/09/sous-vide-seared-halibut-recipe.html

Love it.

daysoft.com for the cheapest disposables i've found, anywhere. Actually it's one of the few companies I love purchasing product from. The guy just does it right. https://www.daysoft.com/usa/about-daysoft/meet-the-inventor/ Not only does he literally invent the product and tech, he re-enters the market solely to undercut everyone who is overpricing little pieces of plastic. Helluva dude.

Pretty sure I was making this point (at least regarding gun ownership)...not sure why u are disagreeing with me. Although I mixed 2 words up so maybe it confused you. ;D Finally, just because it is illogical to own a gun does not mean I can't. Nowhere in the article is this even mentioned. Apparently, illogical choices must be the result of some psychological or emotional influence. Is it** unthinkable to say "yes, owning a gun statistically increases the chance I will be involved in some violent gun crime, but I am going to purchase one anyway". Is it wrong to choose protectionist trade or immigration policies, despite knowing the potential economic, social, political costs? I'm not willing to make that claim. Vaccines on the other hand should be mandatory. You're exposing your both your child and others to serious illness or death by not vaccinating your kids. The difference with a gun is that, you exert a level of control over having a gun. You choose not to pull the trigger, essentially. With communicable illness, you can't choose not to infect someone with measles, for instance.

Except you have to live in Omaha :D

I'm not a fan of this discussion, and it comes up so much here because of statements from Buffett/Munger...IMO there are so many factors at work, it is so situational...it's easy to say, "ahhh of course, reason evolved to navigate group decision making, not to always remain purely logical, that is why people do XYZ." This is one part of the article that bothers me: If your position on, say, the Affordable Care Act is baseless and I rely on it, then my opinion is also baseless. When I talk to Tom and he decides he agrees with me, his opinion is also baseless, but now that the three of us concur we feel that much more smug about our views. If we all now dismiss as unconvincing any information that contradicts our opinion, you get, well, the Trump Administration. I mean, what a jump to go from groupthink to why Trump was elected. I understand it's exaggeration for effect, but when you're writing an entire article about how human emotion influences logic, using such an emotionally charged example is just poor form. Another thing that bothers me is that it's easy to get caught in the weeds. For example: It’s one thing for me to flush a toilet without knowing how it operates, and another for me to favor (or oppose) an immigration ban without knowing what I’m talking about You see, apparently there is some detailed level of knowledge about immigration bans which I must have in order to register a valid opinion. What is that level? Can I favor a ban on immigration based on principled reasons, or must I know all of the minutia? There must be some way, they maintain, to convince people that vaccines are good for kids, and handguns are dangerous. (Another widespread but statistically insupportable belief they’d like to discredit is that owning a gun makes you safer.) But here they encounter the very problems they have enumerated. Providing people with accurate information doesn’t seem to help; they simply discount it. Appealing to their emotions may work better, but doing so is obviously antithetical to the goal of promoting sound science. “The challenge that remains,” they write toward the end of their book, “is to figure out how to address the tendencies that lead to false scientific belief.” Of course, it's hard to argue with the above....but: According to the survey, which was conducted among 1,001 Americans in the aftermath of the Orlando nightclub shooting, 36 percent of U.S. adults either own a firearm personally, or live with someone who does. That's the lowest rate of gun ownership in the CBS poll going back to 1978 So apparently over time, "people" are reducing firearm ownership. Also, and you'll have to do your own sourcing for this (basically i just googled US vaccination coverage over time and looked at the CDC/WHO data) but vaccination coverage in the US has drastically increased over the last 40 years. The only relevant decrease was 2014->2015, where coverage went from 96% to 95%, but then increased to 96% again afterwards. Finally, just because it is illogical to own a gun does not mean I can't. Nowhere in the article is this even mentioned. Apparently, illogical choices must be the result of some psychological or emotional influence. It is unthinkable to say "yes, owning a gun statistically increases the chance I will be involved in some violent gun crime, but I am going to purchase one anyway". Is it wrong to choose protectionist trade or immigration policies, despite knowing the potential economic, social, political costs? I'm not willing to make that claim.

We rescue...we have a 6-8 year old (not really sure) pug chihuahua mix. Sweet little dude. Named him Snaggle due to his snaggle teeth underbite. He is generally as lazy as I am, which works out perfectly, haha.

From yesterday: Well after many years, finally sold out of AIG, Fiat, and BAC. Bought Nike, Reed-Elseview (RELX), and Kraft-Heinz.

The main reason I made the argument about Obama is the incredible difference between the financial results of RGR in 2000-2007 period vs 2008-2016. Sales declined 20% from 2000 to 2007. Net earnings actually declined in half. RGR actually suspended their dividend in 2006. In 2005/6 RGR earnings were close to zero. Then from 2008-2016 sales nearly quadrupled and net earnings grew by a factor of 10. Profit margins improved from 5% to over 10%. You are really dealing with two totally different companies depending on the political party in power. The political factor is not small at all...its massive. That is assuming I can ascribe all of RGR performance to political factors..its possible there was a turnaround during that time period. BTW, I am curious about your perspective on Smith&Wesson. You are correct about politics being a big factor in the industry, which is probably why I've never invested even though I keep looking at these companies over and over again. They come up so well when casually looking at the metrics. When you dig deeper it opens up so many questions (at least for me), that I tossed it aside. No sense trying to flip a coin and see whether sales will stay at high levels or drop off.

Two other things you may find cool: One is the barkley marathon, which is a brutal 5 day marathon in the Tennessee backcountry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barkley_Marathons) There is a good documentary about it on Netflix I think. Looks really crazy! The other is another reddit site where people make their own backpacking gear (https://www.reddit.com/r/myog/) People make their own packs, tents, quilts, camp stoves, etc...pretty creative stuff. I'm not sure how cheap it is compared to just finding a good deal online, but I think the nice part is being able to customize it for exactly what you need...so a sleeping bag that is exactly your size and just enough material to keep you warm. No excess to carry around. It's still winter season here in Colorado so I'm saving all my backpacking/trail running energy for the summer...ski season is in full swing! 8)

Well, I would suggest doing some planning...make sure u are comfortable in your head and environment, and do a low dose...there are such things as "bad trips". That said, my drug days are waaay behind me (going back to my montreal bachelor days, haha), so maybe I'm just being old and stuffy. I hope you find help with your depression, that stuff sucks! My buddy has suffered from chronic depression for years...they just changed his pills on him and he had to self-check into a mental clinic for 10 days...I gave him major props for taking that action for himself, but the stuff he was telling me afterwards...it is no joke.

There's a great website for ultralight backpacking: www.reddit.com/r/ultralight People do everything from shaving toothbrushes down to nubs, and cutting off excess backpack straps, all in order to lighten their pack. Really cool stuff even if you don't take it to that extreme (I don't!)

Fear and greed...are the recipe for some really bad decisions. I'm happy for you guys up north, hopefully you can continue to keep the emotions at bay.

Buffett has burgers and coke, I've got granola and weed. Whatever works!