LC
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Posts posted by LC
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On 7/7/2023 at 8:56 AM, tede02 said:
This post is kind of all of over the place but as an aside, I was shopping car loans this week because I'll be in the market in th next 6-12 months. I could pay cash but was curious where rates are for top credit, etc. Rates were 6%+. Also noticed mortgage rates are pushing into the 7s. It just makes me wonder if the economy is going to crash into a wall at some point vs. this gradual slowing that seems to be taking place now.
Aside from first time buyers, if nobody is buying second homes/third cars because 6/7% rates have killed those markets, where are people putting those dollars? Seems like equities.
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Yeah, I sold deep ITM calls against my entire LPX position. Was a nice IRR.
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Here's a question:
If you accept that the stock price is a rough estimation of intrinsic value (over a long time horizon), is it reasonable to accept stock price volatility as a rough estimation of intrinsic risk over a similarly long time horizon?
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OXY is another one. The warrants are attractive, you can sell short term calls against.
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Hey I really don't know. And I was a 20 something that bounced rather than pay 1M for a half-shitbox, so I get your point.
That said - NYC can reinvent itself very quickly. The city's pace is very quick.
You're right that the homelessness and the bullshit policies and politics are a problem. But those are temporary problems, not structural. WFH yeah is a structural problem. But I think that can just as easily bring folks back to a revitalized NYC as quickly as it drove them away.
I own Clipper and Aimco, in about equal weights.
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My take is that NYC goes thru ebbs and flows. Like everywhere else. What is NYC going to look like in 2040? My guess it will be more desirable than the sunbelt. I may be wrong but that's where I'd put my chips.
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Msge, oxy
Silly Schwab didn’t execute my clipper order at 5.0x a few days ago
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On 6/20/2023 at 4:04 PM, rolling said:
Both me and my wife are doctors. When we need someone, we ask a colleague from the area who he recommends. It is what we all do. We usually know who are the best in our own area. And usually you do not need the best: you just need someone who is good and humble enough to know where he needs help.
My girlfriend is a doctor - this is exactly right. (I am US based fyi)
Find a doctor / specialist you like and is knowledgeable, and ask them for recommendations.
Medicine is a small world and everyone knows who practices bad medicine.
To expand - she is an allergist, she works closely with derms. They all know each other. Her good friend from medical school is also an allergist, but her husband is one of the leading heart surgeons in the area. And he knows other surgeons, etc. So asking my girlfriend (an allergist) for a recommendation on a surgeon goes thru a personal network of doctors.
They aren't friends with crappy doctors (which absolutely exist - just like in any other field).
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36 and skiing way more than I did in my 20s! A win for sure. Drinking less, partying less, but still manage to have some fun. Slang pizzas at a show for a bunch of 20 year old wooks a few days ago, was a great time. The pizzeria is great, free concert tickets is fun
Definitely can’t do it back to back to back days anymore, though. Camping/fishing/hiking season is here, going to plan a few 14ers and spending a week later this month at “the secret spot”. Looking forward to that!
I figure don’t fuck around too much, exercise a bit, keep doing stuff that excites me, don’t get someone pregnant, and I can maybe keep this train on the rails for another 30.
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While nobody is above constructive criticism, I've certainly bought into companies with volatile economics (such as airlines) and sold out when I should've been buying more. To me, this is an understandable error on Buffett's part.
However, never in my life have I thought about going short 100+% of my entire investment portfolio based on a macro outlook and a political/election driven opinion (of which everyone and their uncle has got, and is worth about as much).
To me that is loopy, which is why I think Prem deserves the increased scrutiny.
All that said, I am more than doubly invested in FFH compared to Berkshire (~27% vs. 11% of my investment portfolio) as I think the upside is greater at Fairfax. But I also keep a closer eye on Prem and Co's decision.
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Schwab:
- 1. Your order cannot be accepted. This security KTBA is accepting closing transactions only. (DO911)
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Don’t stop at bolshie, SD- go full on Trots!
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I grew up a few blocks from my paternal grandparents on the east, and maternal grandparents on the west. Both my parents worked, and having grandparents watch the kids was the "norm".
Now they were poor, off-the-boat adult immigrants...without a lifetime of savings to go travel the world, have a vacation home in Florida, etc., which perhaps nowadays grandparents are doing.
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People lie, Paul.
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Execution i think is the biggest concern. Two fronts: when will the insurance market soften; how will the equity investments (and future decisions) hold up. Particularly, if US interest rates hover in the 5-7% range.
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Depends what you want. I am not a big fan of travel- but 3 homes in 3 locations I love, and income enough to dine out in each…I don’t want more! I ski, I hike, i fish for recreation. Good food, cheap wine, a smoke, a beautiful woman, I am a happy man. Only people who care about stuff like Davos are egotists and sycophants.
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Show me the audited records
Explain exactly how you’re using “basic trend lines” “volume” to trade.
Nobody ever seems to publish those two.
Not calling out these folks in particular, but my guess is these guys spend more time on their digital sales funnel than anything else.
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Do we know who the swap counterparty is? I'd imagine a Canadian bank?
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I voted 6. Frankly I think it took them too long to correct the errors of the 2010s- and i think they are selectively fair/friendly/honest.
I do believe they are talented
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Market arguably nearing FOMO mode.
You think so? Everyone I talk to is more excited about 5% high yield savings accounts and their 2.75% mortgages. Stocks are dead, long live stocks.
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Weren't we having this same conversation 10 years ago?
At this point, Apple should just buy Citi and rebrand it Applebank if they really want to get into the lending game.
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Wow- a true legend passed. RIP
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Yep. I've only recently gotten comfortable staying around 100% invested regardless of the market environment, and using margin (rather than a cash balance) to go above/below depending on macro conditions and how confident I am in my ideas.
It started in COVID with such giant sell offs as if humanity was ending, and Greg's posts on how he thinks about his overall portfolio, and then even recently the post on how Buffett used leverage during his partnership days. Someone will always have a reason to predict financial apocalypse, and yet here we all are.
OceanGate, Submarine goes missing.
in General Discussion
Posted
Hubris punished - glory to Poseidon. We should be sacrificing our best goat and flagon of wine.