LC

Added a bit to ATT around 31 this morning.

Another crazy morning. I guess everyone saw this coming but still, to see bank stocks drop 1/5th in a day is something I've never experienced before.

Wow, Trump is really showing his lack of ability. “How not to lead a nation” on display here.

I think it's much higher than 2%. The reality is many people are sick and not dying of pneumonia - I would assume a portion of posters on this very thread are experiencing symptoms as well as the rest of the population, or had experienced symptoms in Jan/Feb and recovered. The first reported US case was January 21. This is an incredibly fast transmitting virus. The odds are, cases existed prior to Jan 21. And further, the odds are that the spread of this virus across the US was much faster than official reports claim. This is due to lack of testing i.e. lack of timely, accurate information. But ultimately, I agree w/ the principle of: better safe than sorry. For the obvious reason, and for the secondary reason as it provides a "trial-run" on a global basis for future pandemics. I am about 20% cash btw. If I didn't suffer from biases like anchoring and all that stuff I would think about 1/3 cash is the ideal amount right now.

I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me. Thanks. Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives. Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen. It meant no disrepect. I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong? I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already! Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently. I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine. Again, hope Im not wrong. We will see I guess.... Here's a question. I am no medical professional so maybe this is a silly question: Let's assume you are correct - coronavirus in some form has been in N America, say since January or early Feb. Therefore people have been experiencing flu-like symptoms and/or perhaps slightly more elevated symptoms than a normal flu. And some must have been going to a doctor or perhaps hospital. Doctors perform a flu test which would presumably come back negative. Would there have been some communication that doctors/hospitals are noticing a pretty decent amount of patients with flu-like or slightly elevated flu-like symptoms but testing negative for the flu? An amount of patient records to corroborate this? I am not saying it's impossible - frankly it may very well be true, and is therefore worth exploring - so would there some records to prove/disprove this?

Paul, I was actually thinking of the C Munger quote earlier this week as we saw such crazy volatility: "In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations"

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared. Also, being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?" "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?" "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied,"it's definitely going to be a very cold winter." The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" "Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever." "How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting wood like crazy."

While the situation remains fluid ;D

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recoveries-than-coronavirus-cases-for-the-first-time-idUKKBN210051 SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea reported more recoveries from the coronavirus than new infections on Friday for the first time since its outbreak emerged in January, as a downward trend in daily cases raised hopes that Asia’s biggest epidemic outside China may be slowing. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) recorded 110 new coronavirus cases on Friday compared with 114 a day earlier, taking the national tally to 7,979. The death toll rose by five to 72 as of late Friday. In contrast, 177 patients were released from hospitals where they had been isolated for treatment, the KCDC said.

Thanks for posting. Interesting is BG claims on cost of investment. You look at what the federal gov't has spent over the past few days, compare that to, if we just spent a portion the last few years. And wonder what the case in America would look like today.

Two types of people in this world:

I'm sure that's never been the case. ;) :P Haha no, still nobody on the ignore list yet...although I will admit I do gloss over a certain poster's posts ;D

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy. Me too. It will allow our lives to return to normal as things re open as well as the market so we all hopefully will make some money. Fuck yes, brother.

Testing is not just hindsight. Right now there are thousands, ten thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus) Of people in the US with a variety of symptoms. Perhaps people who had coronavirus and are recovering. Testing confirms whether they have coronavirus or not, whether they are recovering, how long those periods last, and a bunch of other information that a viral professional is probably more aware of than I am. Essentially, it builds a more robust dataset of infected individuals. Right now we just have the worst-case groups being tested so your sample set it biased.

Fear is useful in that it helps you tread carefully. Too much and it is paralyzing. A healthy mix I think with both COVID and the markets is probably a good idea right now.

Additionally if the healthcare system does crack as you allude is a possibility, widespread self-care will be important. The question may become, how to manage your own/your family's symptoms as best you can. This requires time for professionals to discover, and time to communicate the message.

Similar Rk. I have some assets which would provide substantial cash; but I'd be paying out-the-ass to liquidate. For me to tap that I need much more confidence in where the world will be in 6 months. For now, I have about 15% cash and additional drips from the ole 9-5.

But this is one of the most important thing we can do - to buy as much time for both research into treatment, and to ease the burden on the healthcare system.

Gretzky didn't play hockey with a blindfold on. You need to know where the puck is to know where it is going. Testing is preferable to not testing. It really is that simple.

Cmon. The guy defunded CDC and a few years later CDC is behind the curve on testing. To say he has nothing to do with it, is going too far in one direction.

V and Brk.

I hear you. For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time. I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB. The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up. If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out. I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out. Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps). Well, maybe I was totally off on this one ;D ;D ;D I put another nibble in for V this morning.

I read somewhere (maybe this thread) that CDC finally is distributing 1MM test kits. This will help much more to gain a clear picture how the virus is spreading and severity.

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

Chinese economic production is estimated to have slowed 25% due to the virus, which appears to be waning in China. So there's that. Though the economy is still operating at about 25% below its usual levels, activity should be fully restored by the end of April, Francoise Huang, senior economist at Euler Hermes, predicted in a note to clients. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W SP500 is down about 23% off the recent high, for context.