LC

Personal products because there are so many psychological factors in play.

I use finviz.com for US screening...they cover other countries as well, though. Thanks for the wisdom, SD. I find my sweet spot is around the $100-300m market cap range. Small enough to be off most (but not all) institutional radars, but large enough that PE guys, small-cap activists, etc. aren't dissuaded. They also get some coverage by smaller sell-side research guys, which can help by piggybacking their marketing efforts to small-cap funds. Plus as Nate said, they're much easier to wrap my head around and consolidate all the relevant information for analysis. Check out the thread on FHCO in the investment section to see one such instance I took part in.

I voted 5-7x Ebitda and here is my rationale: I pretty much ignored the accounting numbers you provided and focused on this: -45 years old -60 stores -Sales in line with economic changes -Products available many other places, though it specializes in one category and does a good job at what it does 45 years old and 60 stores? OK,maybe they operate in a certain niche, which jives with the fact that they specialize in one category. But if that is the case, you would think sales would not be in line with economic changes. But they are...which to me is a red flag. So without knowing exactly what that niche is, I would say it's a somewhat boring retailer. And being a somewhat boring retailer is not the best business in the world...hence 5-7 ebitda multiple. Now I am preparing myself to be embarrassed :)

Ah the author appears! Thank you many times over, infinitee! :D

I agree: Especially when it's one of Buffett's "great businesses", that you can just sit on. Then it's better than cash because even when you can't find anything to buy, your great business is earning an excellent return on capital. So that 10% business might be a mediocre one, and once it's reached fair value or whatnot, you sit there earning a relatively mediocre return. So what's the benefit of holding it? Not much, so you sell it and now you're left with the same problem: having cash and either trying to find another 10% mediocre business to invest in. But that 20% business...if that's a real good business...you almost don't need to do anything unless prices get really out of hand.

This is what i've never understood about the need for an inflating currency. People act like there is no cost to holding a currency (even if it is deflationary). People make cost benift analysis everyday and just because a currency is deflating at 1 or 2% a year, doesn't mean i'm going to hold it forever. at a certain point the value of a new TV etc is greater to me than the deflating currency. The cost benift analysis certainy changes, but the idea that world would be perfectly fine in a 1 or 2% inflationary world...but would collapse in a 1 or 2% deflationary world always seemed odd to me. I don't think the 1-2%/year real costs are the worry, I think it's when something black swan-esque happens and there is real value to a measured inflating of the currency value. Ray Dalio's "beautiful deleveraging" comes to mind.

PlanMaestro's website has an excellent series on bank analysis. Also, the BAC A-Warrants thread.

I couldn't find the original post where this spreadsheet was uploaded, but here it is in google docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ahf1UeW1kK_xdE9neWJTTDdUT1c0N3VaRGNpLW4wVHc&usp=drive_web#gid=0 All the fields highlighted in yellow are for user input. Essentially the spreadsheet converts the portfolio value into units, then adjusts the # of units when cash is added/withdrawn. You can of course change the index comparisons if your benchmarks aren't the S&P/Russel 2000. To whoever posted this in the first place, thank you!

How do you view bitcoin, given your economic stance? In the long term, what function does it provide? Secondly, let's assume a deflation/inflation neutral argument. What other advantage does bitcoin offer? I see the only real lasting impact being the ease of transfer. Essentially just putting pressure on banks/payment processors/etc to further reduce transaction fees. I see no real improvements in terms of currency usage nor "store of value"....i.e. if the US changed to bitcoin today, nothing in my daily life would improve.

This is my gripe with bitcoin's value in the long-term. There is value in having an inflationary monetary system where the levels of inflation can somewhat be controlled. Yes there are abuses...of course. But IMHO those potential abuses are (1) less harmful than the problems of not having those levers to pull in times of need, and (2) less harmful than the deflationary nature of how bitcoin is currently set up (with a fixed amount). Even gold isn't a totally fixed supply.

I use the spreadsheet which was posted by a member (I forget who...but you are a lifesaver!) on this forum a while back, which adjusts performance for cash added/withdrawn throughout the year to keep an apples-apples comparison.

38% YTD...no complaints here.

I usually suggest to my friends Intelligent Investor followed by Klarman's Margin of Safety (or Greenblatt's Little book), and then Buffett's partnership letters. II: Provides the basic framework MoS/Little Book: Provide real-world examples Buffett letters: Provides lessons from the master himself ;D

Thanks, hard to argue with free!

Have you tried tenkara fishing? very enjoyable!

to find undervalued stocks :P

I think Churchill sums it up best: Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

In Canada the drinking age is lower! :) I like that idea...if the govt really wants to help all these students out, your way sounds like it is one of the better ways to go about it.

I think the root cause is the tendency within humans to eat the candy now and not think about the stomach-ache later...which is also what keeps value investors in business. Does a terrible government policy of "guaranteeing" the loans enabling predatory lenders add fuel to this fire of human nature? Of course...but to me, I don't believe this is a valid excuse for people complaining about their student loan debt. Gosh, in a perfect world lenders absolutely should be incentivized to properly handle this situation. Most could go home at night and feel a lot better about themselves, too. It baffles my mind why the current situation remains from a legislative perspective. Well, aside from there not being enough blood in the stone to "incentivize" enough politicians to change it.

I don't disagree, but nobody held a gun to anyone's head and made them take out a loan. Blaming the school/government/society isn't going to change that fact.

What twacowfca said...It brought me pleasure to always talk about value funds...and then spend time researching the holdings of those funds! And, congrats! :D

How are you investing in timber? Buy land and harvest regularly...it provides a great workout too! :D

Never underestimate the desire of the political classes to actually get to use all of these toys that they've spent all these years building. That's another good one...you have this entire group of people who strongly identify with each other, and they spend a large part of their lives (and invest a lot of their self-identity/self-worth) into something, and then there comes a point in time when they want to actually use that something, less it go to waste and ruin the image of themselves they have created...very hard to convince that person/those people not to do so after the emotional investment they have made.

If donations of kidneys for kidney transplants were a negative option upon death in the US instead of a positive option, that would be even better. I just want to make sure I am not misunderstanding you....do you mean that having kidney donations as the "default" option upon death would be preferable (in which case I wholeheartedly agree).

isn't this like the 8th "next buffett"? damn i should just give up now and buy the SPY...