Sunrider

What is your expectation for EZPW? Seems with Cohn back in charge and paying himself well, no incentive to common stock value? So it's cheap, but seems the market doesn't trust him on account of his past actions, and the financing last year was probably also so expensive because nobody trusts the guy. Thanks! I'd concur with that assessment. I think saying the bar is low here is an understatement. The guy is a world class scoundrel. I was absolutely floored by the stock awards they hand out as well. But at the current prices, I believe that is well reflected. This company, even with its mismanagement, hasn't spent a whole lot of time trading below a 7 handle. The Cohen thing I think really seemed to be the last straw for many people. So my feel there was that you had a point of capitulation. I certainly wouldn't expect improvement as far as governance goes, but the buyback is important and if used should put a floor under this. And then, again because expectations are so low, I think give this thing a pop once its confirmed they've actually been using it. For a company thats exceptionally cheap, that'll move the needle. My tipping point to jump in a little was the glorious public beating Aaron English put on these guys during the latest call. No I dont think it will change these scumbags, but I think at least temporarily, everyone kind of has an incentive to at least get this back to the pre Cohen announcement levels. Many times Ive found that these hucksters like to remain in the dark and control the narratives. When they get called out like this, sometimes, there may be enough of an ego involved that it compels them to make minor(and usually temporary) adjustments to save face a little bit. Thanks ... I still have a small position (bag holder) ... and have been in two minds on whether to give this another month or just cut it. Simply don’t trust these guys to not do something stupid.

What is your expectation for EZPW? Seems with Cohn back in charge and paying himself well, no incentive to common stock value? So it's cheap, but seems the market doesn't trust him on account of his past actions, and the financing last year was probably also so expensive because nobody trusts the guy. Thanks!

Well ... maybe. Though there are many Italian companies which are, in fact, not Italian in so far as their revenue mostly comes from elsewhere (RACE). There are also those where even in a low growth environment may have a reasonable chance at decent returns from structural changes (Telecom Italia - split of network). ... just a thought.

I take it from your statement that you don‘t live in Europe. Also, you seem to imply that it is the Euro which is responsible for Italy‘s malaise. That’s debatable. In the words of Robin Williams “I made you short?” :) Clearly it doesn’t help to be in fiscal system which doesn’t allow you to devalue when your productivity sucks, and yoking countries together this way is the original mistake of the Eurozone - but there is more to Europe than the Euro, and that’s what Italy (and many Brits, actually, are after). What you’re seeing in this chart has more to do with outward migration as low growth means whoever can go and work elsewhere does. Where do they go? To other parts of Europe, mostly ... which was the idea of the ‘free movement of labour’ principle enshrined in the EU common market. The problem is that Italy’s productivity in many sectors is comparatively low, they have a lot of red tape, etc., etc. All of these things wouldn’t magically disappear if they left the Euro (which also means they’d have to leave the common market and start negotiating bilateral trade agreements). Of course, they could then devalue, but that doesn’t fix the structural issues.

4 month engagement so plan/suggestion should be done by April. Not sure when this hits the market but seem like a majority of our fate price wise will be known then. Oh boy, nearly the last company one might want to pick for this sort of work ... unless of course it's just to stamp the name on pre-determined output ...

Pinging Sanjeev ....?

Supported. Sanjeev - is that an easy adjustment?

Uh - what's not clear to me is why we (and anyone really) is debating whether the earth is warming? That is just basic physics: 1. You have a system which receives heat at a fairly constant rate (= our planet, from the sun, and no controversy about that input rate being constant enough). 2. That heat has to go somewhere by the laws of thermodynamics, which I think are not open to politics. It can either go into heating 'stuff', or it can be re-radiated off the object into cold, dark space (most of that by being reflected before it heats things). That's pretty much it. Since we don't (as yet) have any influence over how much energy arrives on earth, we only need to concern ourselves with how much is radiated back out vs. retained. Again, here it seems clear (=proven?), or at least not open to debate that nothing which we have come up with and/or put into the atmosphere actually increases the rate at which energy is reflected back into space. (Yes, airplane contrails and clouds formed around ship exhaust plumes reflect light, but all models on this show that this is a minor effect compared to the increased heat retention potential of 'greenhouse' gases.) CO2 (and other di- or tri- atomic molecules) are really great at absorbing heat - no scientific debate about this. Ergo, if you put more CO2 into the atmosphere, there is more opportunity for it to heat up and retain the heat (vs. radiating it back out), thus the system overall gains in heat. It's really just 'input to retention vs. loss' math. We are messing with the loss bit by giving radiation (light spectrum) more things to hit and heat up along its path. You can simulate this at any high school with a lamp, a glass box, a thermometer and some suitable gas. ----- All that said - the question on whether it's good or bad seems to be hard for people to wrap their head around because there is so much variability. Much of the heat the planet has gained through increased CO2 levels appears to have been stored away in the oceans, and some people just think 'we'll if we can grow crops in northern Manitoba for another 2 months of the year, what's so bad about that?'. That's a localised view and ignores the complexity of the system as a whole. Tweak one bit and things can change in very unexpected places. If the planet heats, we know that, on average, ice will melt and oceans expand (because pretty much all materials expand as they warm);so oceans rise; if oceans rise, expensive Miami condos have an issue, and hurricanes gain in force because of higher average temperatures, so that means more damage; if ice melts, the salinity balance of the oceans changes, which messes with the flow of water from the arctic to the equator and back up again - that heat re-distribution drives much of the northern hemisphere climate, if it stops, much of the northern hemisphere may well turn colder, not warmer, as most people expect. Etc. Are you happy to just prod it a bit and see what happens?

Check out the GSE thread on the prefs under general.

I think the ACG video could be a pump and dump scheme to support some big players to continue to unload. I do agree with everything she said though, but I've been consistent wrong on my FA......... . The "big players" have been in it since the beginning and show no signs of getting out without a resolution. I don't care who exactly it is. I trust my chart reading skills and it tells me big players are unloading. And for those waiting for the September treasury plan, I have to ask you this: Do you think there is still some opportunity for information arbitrary? Isn't it already well known that Treasury will have a plan released in early September, and it is supposed to be good? There is nothing in the charts to suggest "big players" are unloading. The volume the last couple of months outside of a couple of days would not let a big player out without crashing the price even in the most liquid FNMAS. That statement is twaddle. Again this is not a FA or chart "trade". The keys are Treasury plan, FHFA capital standards, 4th Amendment/NWS then recap. Each along the way may bump % of par value but final value will likely be realized in the days following the recap plan release. Didnt we already go over this?....and what big player would be unloading right before the fireworks go off? That's ridiculous IMO. For better or worse if you have made the decision to invest in this why would you get out right before the most anticipated 3-6 months in this whole saga? I look at 200 charts a day, so that’s how I get a feel of how things may play out. I agree with what you said “what bigger players would be selling right before a immediate huge catalyst”? That’s true, but the charts show they are selling. So could it be possible that they are smarter than us and they now expect something not as bullish as you and me are expecting? Big players don’t use a market order to get out with one click of a mouse. If you don’t understand how big players get in and out of a position, you may call TD AM’s institutional desk and ask them how to trade large quantities. I didn’t know anything like this until I called them for fun one day and then started to understand why sometimes charts show certain patterns. That's interesting - can you elaborate? What do they do and how does that turn up in a chart? I would've thought that if the volume isn't there, then there's not much they can, unless it's off market transactions (but then they would not be in your charts? And why would someone take the other side in size off market if the big players know something?) Thank you!

... haven't said anything here for a while... for my part, I appreciated your contributions, whether I believe TA or not, whether I can use your insights or not, I'd rather have them - it works for you so there must be some value in it, whether I can derive it or, I'd rather have it here. So please keep on with it. I agree. Well said. I guess this is why I should stop talking about TA. Still..... Just for fundamental investors, I still think it is important to be open minded, and constantly look for ways to improve the process, and be disciplined. When I was a fundamental investor from 2009 to 2018, I was doing lazy and lousy work, eager to put my cash to work, and once I buy a stock, I would rationalize it as hard as I could to hold on to the position, because, hey, selling at a loss means "lack of conviction", which is not supposed to happen for great investors. Eventually, I took big losses on certain names. I already realized the problem with TA so I stopped talking about it, but I wanted to share with you my own pain and hope it helps with some of you. I don't see how my comment on "If you don't learn, you get slapped by Mr. market" upset people. I got slapped several times by Mr. market by taking big losses on some names in those 9 years, and vowed to not to let it happen again. Maybe it was because Midas kept thinking I was referring to him when I was not. Getting back to the GSEs..... I think the probability is high that the treasury plan is a disappointment, which propped Calabria to file in Collins for FHFA constitutionality position to buy himself time. Collins ruling itself is not something I could speak of though.

Good point. I too am ignorant on the specifics. I didn't mean to impugn Metro Bank management, but to respond to Cubsfan's comments and assessments as I understood them. Falling victim to a charlatan is the worst case scenario that we all are trying to avoid, but there are many lessor risks in evaluating manager skill and honesty. Well you can and should impugn them - getting risk weightings on mortgages wrong is kinda difficult unless you’re either (i) incompetent or (ii) trying to do it deliberately. Calculating RWA is one of the most basic things in banking ...

Chris - I agree with your views & that understanding politics is informative in relation to predicting how this may play out. I'm simply tired of seeing one or the other side of the political divide (for it is now really a divide) accuse the other of stonewalling, abdicating their duty, being evil, etc. When you consider yourself righteous and the other side evil, it's not hard to see why nothing productive gets done. Sadly, it doesn't matter which side it comes from, it's just the kettle calling the pot black. I'm not American and for me the US used to be the beacon of liberty, so it is very disappointing to see what a bunch of small-minded, squabbling, barely competent, ill-informed, and often ignorant people get to positions of power. The current president's lack of ethics are just the visible symptom of a deeper malaise affecting what used to be the leading country of the free world. (To be clear, I don't care much what side of the aisle he comes from, nor do I think does he, I judge him by what he says and does.) That's where I'm coming from --- and thus I felt compelled to call out this instance of somewhat hypocritical (whether intended or not) political hogwash (not your analysis, but the statement of 'Democrats are X' ... it's the same as 'Republicans are Y'). Cheers.

There is no longer any rational thinking by the Democrats today. The only thing they do is to angrily object anything. I dare say if Trump declares himself as self-identified woman, and therefore the first female president in the US, the democrats will not celebrate, but instead yelling angrily. (Even though they should celebrate, as that seems to be inline with their value.) Let's leave D/R politics out of here ... your statement would just as well apply to R during Obama - in fact they are on record saying "We will sabotage and object to anything this president wants to do." It's sad that this sort of 'politics' seems to be the norm now (and as per your statement the D are now doing the same as the R back then). Representatives are elected to do work - which typically means compromising to find workable, albeit imperfect, solutions.

Hands down Christian deserves the MVP award for Most Valuable Poster. His work on MBIA was incredible as well. I have a law degree and still learn a ton reading his posts. Thank you!! Once this saga ends, I hope you find another potential investment to keep the intelligent posts coming! Seconded.

Hmm ... wondering if it makes sense to swap some FNMAS into FNMAJ - similar coupon but at 20% discount.... I presume there's no reason to think the different pref series will be treated differently if there is a deal / conversion / etc.? Thanks!

Yes - but also ‘defendants do not believe ADR would be productive’ .... so I’m not sure what you make of this? Thanks!

Emily, I think some people tried to tell you this before on the board. Your last post is a perfect example of why you should not get back in, and probably should take a big step back from stock investing. Greed and Fear. It kills you. I’ve been there and it took me a long time before I could look at quietly accept that the stocks in my portfolio weren’t doing what they were supposed to be doing ... AND not react much one way or the other. Whether FNMA or FMCK, just ask yourself if your thesis has changed. If yes, act. If not, don’t. Hope that helps.

Backside cover for court cases that are ongoing

Awesome thank you. So lgd = 50% and loss to mortgage insurer 50% less equity, so call that 31% of principal assuming everyone is at just 19% equity. Now all we need is a good estimate of the default rate over the next years.

Hmm ... I’m wondering whether we’re getting close to the point where this becomes shortable? From my time in Canada, I recall that there is government and private mortgage insurance, and they should be the first loss tranche, after the borrower, of course. Does anyone know if the insureres are obligated to immediately pay off the entire loan amount to the lender in case of borrower default or are they able to pay obligations as they arise (as is the case with MBI and OCN for bonds)? In the latter case one would expect that the insureres will be hit less hard - they still have premia coming in and can pay obligations from those ... there would be dividend cuts, but it may not be catastrophic. If the banks can immediately recover their principal then that would be a bloodbath for the insurers given that insurance is taken out where people don’t have a 20% cushion, and a lot of people should be dead in the water with a 12% drop as that chart on the prior page indicates. Of course not all of those will be unable to pay their obligations, and I think those mortgages aren’t non-recourse ... but I thought I’d tap into the wisdom of this board to see what people think. Thank you.

The defence really infuriates me at times and the judges even more so. Normally goes something like this: "Whats left for shareholders?" "your honor, you have to remember the tax payers put up x billion dollars" And?? How does that impact whats left for shareholders? What do you mean? That’s standard practice in Donald times - his classic response to something he doesn’t like ... “yeah but what about Hilary/bad person x doing x?”(even if completely unrelated :)

What gives you comfort that they got a handle on operations so that they can continue repurchasing shares? I only had a cursory glance through the annual report but it seems like lots of issues with assets. It's cheap, but is management competent and honest?

I wonder about the use of options in this context. The calls will be adjusted to deliver the spin and $8.xx in cash. Is your thought that remainco will start trading up quite quickly? Do you intend to roll the options if nothing happens for a while? Thank you!

Well, for what it's worth, you'd have my vote if you get shareholders organised (not that I own many shares)!