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Rainier

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Everything posted by Rainier

  1. Yeah - I don’t disagree with any of those inclusions in terms of talent. My only argument would be that I don’t think Malone or Shaq or Kemp were known for their basketball IQ / scheming / strategy / play calling / mind games / time management / ref manipulation etc. Effectively on-court coaching. Those guys (Shaq, Kemp, Malone, etc) were more just generational physical talents whose bodies and coordination were elite among the elite. In a lot of ways, those types of players were kind of known for frustrating their floor generals because of mental lapses (especially Kemp). Good example - what would Vince Carter’s career have been like if he’d had the devotion to studying / managing the game like other elitely talented 2/3 swing players like Jordan or Kobe or LeBron? Luka and LeBron (especially LeBron) are obviously physically gifted. But they’re in rarified air in terms of all-time basketball IQ. The only other players on the league on their level are Jokic, decrepit Chris Paul, and Draymond. Of course basketball IQ is obviously the most subjective thing ever and can’t be quantified at all. More of a know it when you see it trait I guess. Bird, Jokic, Chris Paul, Stockton, Payton being prime examples. Physically not impressive and may not even score much in a game, but routinely control the entire flow of the game by themselves. Russell / Cousy / Havlicek is the biggest omission. But I was initially keeping it to the last 50ish years because I just don’t have any experience watching those guys or Jerry West or Oscar. I do think they get short shrift today though. Russell, Havlicek, West should probably be in everyone’s top 10-25 list. Especially when you hear about all of the off the court hardships guys like Russell and Jerry West had to deal with.
  2. It will be interesting to see what they do in the playoffs. I don’t like to root for the Lakers, but this situation is something really unusual. I hope LeBron can hold up in the playoffs and they can get a lot out of Austin Reeves. Would be nice to see a western conference second round of Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, Thunder. Also, the combo of LeBron and Luka is in the very upper stratosphere in terms of highest basketball IQ superstar duos of all time. Will be fascinating to see what they’re able to do in seven game series’ when strategy and endurance really take over. For the last 50ish years I would rank star-level duos on basketball IQ as the following (IQ only, I’m not saying most talented duo - although #1 would be the same, also excluding short stints like Gary Payton playing with Kobe). 1. Jordan / Pippen 2. Bird / McHale 3. LeBron / Luka (and this is close - they probably are #2, but I’m reticent because of recency bias and short tenure together) 4. Duncan / Ginobili 5. Magic / Kareem 6. Steph / Draymond 7. Rondo / Garnett 8. Kobe / Gasol I’m probably forgetting some obvious combo. It’s painful to leave guys like Jokic, Chris Paul, Stockton, Payton, Nash, etc off that list. But it’s rare that you have two star-level players who are that micro focused on offensive and/or defensive strategy on the same team. Probably a lot of reasons for that now that I think about it. Essentially all of those duos have a clear spotlight guy and a clear dirty work or subordinate guy, even if they’re both equally intelligent strategically. Corporate analogy I guess fits - that it’s rare to have two all-time great CEO caliber executives in one company (one would typically leave to be the man somewhere else). Buffett / Munger (and maybe Ajit too) being an obvious exception.
  3. I don’t know anything about this company, but will do some research. Anyone know anything about it? It just came up as I was researching BIRG and came across this guy’s twitter. Irish Continental Group (also, can anyone tell me how to embed a twitter post so it can actually be seen in the body of my forum post here on cobf?)
  4. Thanks; sorry I should have picked up that it was NextEra. And thanks for the analysis on it from a few weeks ago - I didn’t know anything about it prior to that. It’s interesting and I’ve been thinking about a small position. I do wonder what stops them from just getting themselves back into the same situation again over the long-term (over leveraging with CEPFs). Maybe they’ll be more disciplined. But I guess the reality is that this is probably a 2-5 year story with constant re-assessing, not something to buy and put in a coffee can.
  5. What is XIPR?
  6. Both, but it’s a difficult thing to weigh out. I really enjoy the research, following companies, and finding weird opportunities that are not yet priced in. But knowing the very serious ramifications my decisions will have on my family into the future, it’s hard to say that I wouldn’t take a guaranteed 25% compounding index fund (or whatever return I think I couldn’t reliably beat). Internally, I think I just wouldn’t have a choice…like it would be irresponsible not to take risk off of the table for the people who rely on me. This type of thinking has always colored my decisions about jobs as well, so it may just be a “me” thing of being too pessimistic.
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